Will there Be a Professional DX Body From Nikon?

heartyfisher

Its interesting to note that the D800/E second hand and in good condition now can be bought for the expected price of the Pro DX. That even further reduces the need of a ProDX don't it ?. Well may be not a lot but by some I think. I have noticed a few D7000 for sale and the owner saying that they have upgraded to a D800.

Bokeh_Hunter

I am very happy that Nikon continues the D8XX line. It can serve as a D300s replacement, but I don't think it will attract first time camera buyers that are looking for a pro quality dx camera.

I'm with you on everything. Usually the D300 line is about $2,000. D810 $3,200. That is a hell of a bump for that feature set and to get the pro feature set you have to pony up $3k. That seems a bit steep and as others said, not everyone needs FX.

A little bit of price analysis:

D3300 - $650
D5300 - $800 - 19% Increase
D7100 - $1,200 - 33% Increase
Pro DX? $1,596 - 33% increase over D7100
Another? $1,851 16% increase over Pro DX
D610 - $2,000 - 40% Increase over D7100 - 20% over Pro DX
D750 - $2,300 - 13% Increase - 20% over Another?
DF - $2,750 - 16% Increase
D810 - $3,300 - 30% Increase (D750)
D4s - $6,500 - 49% Increase

Nikon has almost always kept (or seemed to want) 15-18% price increase between bodies (at release time and outside of pro models). Canon does about the same. There is obviously something to that (marketing gurus probably know) but we can see where the gaps are. If you look at the "gaps" and assume a goal of 15% between price points, you see some big holes.

-D5300 -> D7100 - That is filled by the V/J/S One series. They cover that whole area.
-D7100 -> D610 - That is the huge gap and I would suggest If we see how the DF filled the D750-D810 quite nicely, one could see a Pro DX and even a high end DX mirrorless can squeeze in there.

The other way to look at it, if the D610 permanently becomes the $1,800 (once occupied by the D300), you have DX "something" coming in at $1,600.

Business is logical and not just haphazard or fulfilling some groups desire. So the first question is - Is there room for a system, both specs and price? I'm suggesting that there is enough room for two systems. Maybe there will be a DX DF and a DX pro.

The other thing if anyone caught on is that Nikon's body prices drop about 10-12% after the first year which keeps all the prices in that 15-18% price gap. That is why it is better to wait a year on the bodies.

Bokeh_Hunter

@Photobug & @heartyfisher - Both of you brought up valid points. This is kind of why I'm thinking A pro DX will not come. The pro build/controol set is far more expensive than a few hundred of dollars. The people who once did buy this class, bought the D700 and/or since then, have moved to the D800 and D600 or will to the D750. I'm not sure if there really is that many people left in that market who would buy a Pro DX. There are some, for sure, but the number has dropped considerably.

It does leave a great gap to put in a mirrorless DX body (say at $1,300) and a new set of mirrorless lenses. Add a 24-80vr f/4 (like sony) for $300 and 35mm, 50mm equiv primes for $400 each and you have that gap covered with a different body and lenses.

That is probably wishful thinking on my part, but that could be a solution to a wide gap.

heartyfisher

if Nikon does introduce a Mirrorless DX system. The Nikon1 mount is wide enough to accommodate the image circle from what I have seen. However, I think they will want to make it compatible with FX mirror less... its just more long term viable.

nukuEX2

I think $1599 to $1799 would be the ideal price for a pro level DX body.That could buy a lot of features. such as 9.5 -10fps, larger buffer, 150.000 shutter actuation cycle, Expeed 4, Powered Aperture, more robust body and weather sealing, on sensor AF, and 4K or at least 60p - 120p at 1080P?

Bokeh_Hunter

I remember reading on some site that did the measurements of the Nikon1 system and they concluded it couldn't handle DX or FX at all since it would have left paper thin mounting plates. It would need to be a completely new system top to bottom. There really isn't a way around it.

I think $1599 to $1799 would be the ideal price for a pro level DX body.That could buy a lot of features. such as 9.5 -10fps, larger buffer, 150.000 shutter actuation cycle, Expeed 4, Powered Aperture, more robust body and weather sealing, on sensor AF, and 4K or at least 60p - 120p at 1080P?

That maybe what you would like to pay, but that isn't going to pay for the added features at all. That level has always been at $1,800-2,000. It doesn't matter how much people don't want it that high, that is just where it will always be. You can see just what the difference of price is from the D750-D800 - that is $700. A DX sensor wouldn't lessen those prices at all - it is all body changes, so the DX sensor wouldn't change that increase much at all. Everything would be the same price increase but the viewfinder - that is the only thing which is less with DX.

donaldejose

I do think before the end of 2015 we will see Nikon put at least one DX sensor product into the price gap TTJ has identified. Apparently the new D750 body is getting rave reviews. Perhaps a similar body build will be the new top end of the DX bodies?

sevencrossing

I do think before the end of 2015 we will see Nikon put at least one DX sensor product into the price gap TTJ has identified.

Yes perhaps a D7200 costing $1,596

donaldejose

Sorry sevencrossing, I don't think you are right. A D7200 will be an incremental improvement over a D7100 for the same price of $1,100. Surely the D7200 will come soon but it will replace an existing body at an existing price and not "fill the gap." Nikon will use a different name, such as D8100 or D9100 or D400 to fill the gap with a body which offers some additional features over a D7200. Time will tell which prediction turns out to be correct; none of us know.

bryanD7100

The One Prediction we can count on is that there will be another DX upgrade to the D7100/D300. There may even be two. Whats more the next one will be sooner than later if Nikon doesn't want to loose more ground to the 7D II. And along that vein Nikon cannot afford to be so tight lipped as they have been. expect some rumors to start soon.
Black Friday/Nov.28 works for me but ... really ..... if not by Jan/2015 then it's not looking good for Nikon DX.

WestEndBoy

That maybe what you would like to pay, but that isn't going to pay for the added features at all. That level has always been at $1,800-2,000. It doesn't matter how much people don't want it that high, that is just where it will always be. You can see just what the difference of price is from the D750-D800 - that is $700. A DX sensor wouldn't lessen those prices at all - it is all body changes, so the DX sensor wouldn't change that increase much at all. Everything would be the same price increase but the viewfinder - that is the only thing which is less with DX.

This is a good point. Lot's of people that were not into cameras before digital (or with short memories) forget how much the body influences the cost. I remember aching over choosing between a F80 and F100 (think D610 and D750) trying to justify the cash for the extra features etc. The sensor was the same - in fact, I got to swap out a new one every 12 - 36 shots if I wanted.

The sensor is becoming less and less important. I believe that in ten years, every FX camera from $500 up will have the same sensor - or at least they will look the same spec wise, just the latest version will be on the high end.

Photobug

Its interesting to note that the D800/E second hand and in good condition now can be bought for the expected price of the Pro DX. That even further reduces the need of a ProDX don't it ?. Well may be not a lot but by some I think. I have noticed a few D7000 for sale and the owner saying that they have upgraded to a D800.

Ran into a D700 user this weekend and he went the same way. He could not resit the $1,700 price tag for a clean D800 with less than 10,000 shutter activations. The local dealer can't hold onto a used D800 for over a week. They are turning any where from 2 to 5 days. The used market is hot for the D800.

SquamishPhoto

^^^
I just sold mine for $2000 with 200,000 actuations.

spraynpray

^^^
I just sold mine for $2000 with 200,000 actuations.

WOW! Did you leave three noughts off the actuations? :P

WestEndBoy

Very well done SquamishPhoto.

Nothing personal, but as a general rule, I would not buy second hand from a professional.

I would buy it from the gear head that never gets out shooting and finally figures out he wasted his money.

Meaning I would not be buying second hand from most members of this forum.

Photobug

^^^
I just sold mine for $2000 with 200,000 actuations.

Impressive. Goof for you.

WestEndBoy

^^^
I just sold mine for $2000 with 200,000 actuations.

What are you upgrading to SquamishPhoto? The D810 I assume?

SquamishPhoto

Very well done SquamishPhoto.

Nothing personal, but as a general rule, I would not buy second hand from a professional.

I would buy it from the gear head that never gets out shooting and finally figures out he wasted his money.

Meaning I would not be buying second hand from most members of this forum.

Thats an unfortunate bias. Im always happy to buy something used that's shown its worth. A camera shutter that makes it past 100,000 actuations is really more reliable than one that is only at 5,000 - its proven it works properly in the most scientific way possible, namely that its not broken yet unlike the new one that might go in 5,000 more.

Regardless, I wanted to still recover a bit more from the purchase than I did when I sold my D700 and only managed to fetch $1,400 for it. I bought that camera for $2450 new, so Im out a grand with each camera technically, but Im happier with the cash in hand at the moment. Im actually in the construction phase of opening my own coffee shop and will no longer have as much time to dedicate to as much photo work, so Im purging as much as I can justify and then Ill likely wait for Nikon to release a 40-50MP body and Ill jump on that. Anyone in the Vancouver area that is interested in any of the gear below send me a private message.

WestEndBoy

Opening a photoshop. Good for you. Are you going to be an independent or a franchisee? Squamish?

And of course, we expect some wicked shots of some espresso shots!

Bokeh_Hunter

Very well done SquamishPhoto.

Nothing personal, but as a general rule, I would not buy second hand from a professional.

I would buy it from the gear head that never gets out shooting and finally figures out he wasted his money.

Meaning I would not be buying second hand from most members of this forum.

I am the exact same. I will not buy used bodies, lenses or flashes from another pro. I know exactly what the gear goes through.

donaldejose

Interestingly, it seems to be vastly different for violins. I am told the wood "harmonizes" to the player in some way such that if you buy a good instrument from a good player it will produce better sound than if a not very good player had played the same instrument for the same amount of time. Too bad you cannot get better photos by buying used gear from photographers who have used it to take great photos!

SquamishPhoto

Very well done SquamishPhoto.

Nothing personal, but as a general rule, I would not buy second hand from a professional.

I would buy it from the gear head that never gets out shooting and finally figures out he wasted his money.

Meaning I would not be buying second hand from most members of this forum.

I am the exact same. I will not buy used bodies, lenses or flashes from another pro. I know exactly what the gear goes through.

No you don't know "exactly" what the gear goes through. Im not the bumble hand that you describe yourself as here so often. I don't smash my gear into door frames or let my lenses drop. The only damage on any of my gear is to the stupid little plastic do-nothings on the PC-E lens. They are pointless little plastic accents that are really fragile and can break from jostling around in a bag and a couple of mine have little snapped off pieces. Thats it. My 200mm lives in its custom bag unless its in use. I reserve the D3 for when I *might* have impact potential, like when I shoot rock climbing photos on a rope. Despite the many times that scenario has played out for me the worst damage I've incurred was a small scratch on a lens hood while ascending the rope after the shoot was over.

Im not saying its not good policy to avoid buying used gear, that is certainly a good rule if you can afford it - the only used item I own is my Hasselblad and my D3. However, its plainly ridiculous to suggest that its a bad call across the board because all "pro" shooters are the same. Its certainly a stretch to suggest that most studio only guys have beat up gear that would be a risk to buy second hand, but I digress...

DaveyJ

I think the D7200 is almost overdue although I concede that the time the D7100 has been out is nowheres near the time from the D300s introduction. So my take as almost always reported here by me is that the D7200 could easily be improved. Still the pent up demand for a D400 or D9300 is so large that I think it would be a SELLING camera beyond any Nikon has introduced in recent memory. So if Nikon fails to soon introduce a professional DSLR DX body It would seem a tragic mistake. AS to announcement of EITHER D7200 or D9300 I am going to guess no. Nikon knows buyers take some time to prepare to buy Christmas presents or the like and I am thinking there is not that much time left this year. Also I don't know of any major photo shows that Nikon has traditionally made an important announcement at. The Photokina event was obviously the D750 which does look very appealing even to a DX leaning buyer. But since such a large percentage of profits comes from DX for Nikon why in the world would they not heavily respond to Canon's latest 7DMarkII??

donaldejose

Camera repairmen tell me the electronics in a DSLR don't "wear out" with use so you can buy a D3 body with 300,000 exposures quite safely as long as you are willing to spend $400 on a new shutter soon.

WestEndBoy

In fact, the electronics have been proven. Space probed, where reliability is mission critical, are "operated" extensively prior to launch.