"[Nikon's] not going to be around in 5 years"

sevencrossing

I have heard people who own a D800 say "this is my last camera." They cannot envision ever needing more .

Until Nikon brings out a compact that equals spec and performance of a D800

and may be 8fps

then there are the millions who are waiting for the D400 who will eventually get a D800

kyoshinikon

I have heard people who own a D800 say "this is my last camera." They cannot envision ever needing more and they likely will not shoot enough to wear out the shutter or break any part."


Isn't that what people said about the ram in the 1984 Mac?

PB_PM

I don't buy into the whole "this is my last camera" crap. Sure, if you are 89 years old and are about to enter a care facility, but otherwise? Bah. Those people saying whatever they buy today is there "last camera" will be the first ones in line when the 50MP D900 comes out.

Msmoto

OK, so maybe the D4 is not my last camera.....but, my guess is it will be my last full frame DSLR.....or, well, a D8XX with the lack of an AA filter like the D7100....maybe. Or, a D400, or...oh heck, I will no doubt get something.

However, what sounds very interesting are the APO lenses from Zeiss....

As to Nikon not being around in five years...most likely they will be here but will have diversified enough to bring in revenue from other than their current line-up.

sevencrossing

..most likely they will be here but will have diversified enough to bring in revenue from other than their current line-up.

Going into a market you know nothing about can often be a formula for bankruptcy

but look what they already do

http://www.nikon.com/products/instruments/index.htm

http://www.nikon.com/products/precision/index.htm

http://www.nikon.com/products/sportoptics/index.htm

JK1231

I can see the merger now....a Nikanon..or Cakon...or Nicanon...or... LOL

Meh, Apple will simply buy Nikon with its hoard of cash sitting in Japan that it can't bring back to the U.S. without getting taxed to death.

tman

Maybe I missed it somewhere in the thread, but it seems that DSLR products are merging with pro-video in Canon's portfolio; I think that's the healthy way to do it-- consolidate on one device stepping up big time from weightless/wearable image capture like google glass; I think that's the strategy for ensuring the future market size is large enough to justify the investment. I predict consolidation (merger/buy/bought) in Nikon's future since it doesn't have the presence (or knowledge) in commercial video to match Canon,but I suspect the Nikon name and engineering will be proudly displayed by whatever the merger creates.

I remember reading somewhere that every mature market favors 2 major and 1 minor player. You've got Canon, Sony, so we need to make #3: Nikosonic/Panakon? Nikon simply sounds better.

mikep

seems unlikely to me

these dslr things have advantages over point and shoots .... perhaps most significantly they are able to take lots of good pictures from a distance with long lenses. if a point and shoot can ever do that same job, then maybe these camera systems will die out

these cameras are tools that exist for a reason, and they will only go when their purpose has gone

journalism, sports, studio stuff ... cant be done with anything other than big cameras at the moment, so as long as there are magazines and TV and whatever, then there is a demand for pictures and these cameras are gonna be needed

and anyways, cameras are cool ... i will always want one

TaoTeJared

Maybe I missed it somewhere in the thread, but it seems that DSLR products are merging with pro-video in Canon's portfolio; ...
...I remember reading somewhere that every mature market favors 2 major and 1 minor player. You've got Canon, Sony, so we need to make #3: Nikosonic/Panakon? Nikon simply sounds better.

Actually we are seeing a bit of decoupling high-end video from Dslrs with the new iteration of digital video cams. 4k video is the future and at this moment DSLRs just don't have the oomph or hardware to support it. The amount of money that people spend on accessories to turn a DSLR into a comfortable video rig I think shows that people would probably rather just have a dedicated video camera with built in support for video and audio outputs etc. vs. a DSLR. I suppose that all depends on your budget though.

Just a note on market players - Canon and Nikon are #1 & #2 with Sony having just moved solidly into the #3 spot. Some quarters Sony moves up with compact sales/new models.
----------------

For investor focused - Nikon will change in #s due to the loss in compact sales. I know I just recently read that 80% of Nikon's revenues come from cameras. No other camera company has cameras at the bulk of their sales. The only thing that concerns me is if Nikon becomes a company being pushed around by wall street analysts rather than focused on creating better tools. Either way, they are not going anywhere.

MikeGunter

Hi all,

I certainly can't look into the future, but looking into the past, I couldn't have foreseen carrying my phone in my pocket or seeing the picture I just took on the back of my camera as soon as I click the shutter.

With that in mind, and how people really are quite satisfied with their iPhone pictures, I find it quite possible that the P&S market will quietly go away, at least mostly.

As for DSLRs, there seems to be so much enthusiasts, I find it hard to believe that they will go away completely, but I do think there will be a real shakeup in the near future. What that entails is unclear to me.

As for video on DSLRs - the uniqueness revolutionized video is the large aperture/narrow DOF and film-like qualities of the DSLR. TTJ is right that many video cameras are available for 4K video at very reasonable prices.

My best,

Mike

spraynpray

All this talk about camera formats and possible obsolescence - My opinion is that DSLR is just a name which could be anything - the camera we call a DSLR could also functionally be anything - it just doesn't matter. The SLR, DSLR (whatever) is an evolution of camera that fulfills photographers needs by having interchangeable lenses, a wide range of accessories to help get the shot and fast access (varying with model) to the essential controls. Other evolutionary stages of camera will come and go in the future, but they will all have at least that basic 'rightness' for the pro and enthusiastic amateur.

If you look at some other things - sporting shotguns for instance - there is a 'rightness' present in the design which has evolved that is not changed significantly for hundreds of years - that state of evolution is present in many items in our realm. The DSLR stage of evolution will not last that long, but as modern inventions go, its long life is due to its rightness and whoever wants to change it had better get it right or watch their sales go away!

Msmoto

Nikon is about an eleven billion dollar company in sales last year. While 75% is in imaging, they are stating plans for more diversification, primarily into the medical/ heath fields which at present are expanding.

A recognition of the diminishing P& S market is stated by Nikon, and this suggests a large difference from the history Eastman Kodak had which was the thought that film would survive the new digital age.

While Nikon may have to rethink some of its PR policies, I suspect the basic quality of their 35mm format cameras will sustain them in their primary market share.

sevencrossing

Nikon Corporation was established In 1917 as an optical manufacturer
and this is an area they still excel in

But, if the idea of High-Quality Computational Imaging Through Simple Lenses - See more at: http://forum.nikonrumors.com/discussion/1652/the-future-of-optics#Item_7

were to take hold, and high end Cameras no longer needed high quality optics, then Nikon could, in theory, go the same way as Kodak

but I think that is a lot more than 5 years away