Wait for the successor to the D800?

FreezeAction

How about a James Bond number plate change mechanism; that when you engage Dx mode, it changes the name to D400

WestEndBoy

How about a James Bond number plate change mechanism; that when you engage Dx mode, it changes the name to D400

Classic. It should also auto-credit your bank account for $5,000, which is realy what the D400ers want and Nikon does not want to give.

FreezeAction

How about a James Bond number plate change mechanism; that when you engage Dx mode, it changes the name to D400

Classic. It should also auto-credit your bank account for $5,000, which is realy what the D400ers want and Nikon does not want to give.

Come September I'll spend $6500 or more after Photokina... Major air show right up the road a few miles coming in Oct I found out yesterday. Military jets. Last time they were late showing up and I went home early. I would really like to spend more on a 200-400mm with a 1.4 tele extender. If I will not get arrested I may practice on such planes taking off and landing at Patrick AFB. I've decided against whatever a D400 might be. FF all the way.

TaoTeJared

@bowiesalvatore - As some stated before, it is all about the glass, not the camera. FX with cheap lenses is no better than DX with great glass. I would say, save the $$ now and just focus on buying FX glass that plays nice on DX (70-200, 50, 85, Macro, flashes) then make the move to FX. Figure a move to FX in the end costs about double than shooting DX.

I'm sorry, but Hard drives, Ram, etc, is not cheap and is very expensive!!! Using the "Relative to what it use to cost" is a joke. Cheap is not having to spend a damn dime. When I made the move to the D800 I absolutely had to get a new computer and external drives. Didn't have too before the move. Then of course I upgraded my monitor, switch, etc. and then comes all the other stuff I got by not upgrading, but finely needed too. I extend my computers, software, hardware out as long as I can and I was beyond an industry standard for upgrading, but that old system is what I am on writing this, edits 12-16mp files with ease and still is a good machine but can't handle the D800 raw files at all. That all cost more than the camera. Of course all of it depends how old your system is, but if you are on the much older side, it hurts - it hurts real bad. Like I would have a new 85 1.4, the 14-24 instead of the Tokina 16-28, & 35 1.4 in my bag now instead of waiting 2+ years

Symphotic

My prediction for the next D800:

No more AA filter.
4K video output. (Probably same internal HD video options.)
Bigger buffer but same frame rate.
Same pixel count.

Photobug

I don't expect the D800 update will be called the D800s. I am thinking there will be a number of updates to Exceeds 4, buffer size, video updates, and as Symphontic said, same frame rate and pixel count.

It's going to be the D810. Someone in the D4S forum said "s" for small changes...I buy that. So the new update will be D810. My question is when, perhaps January 2015. That is how I see it.

tman

Hopefully it will also have AF focus control from a touch LCD. A friend's studio went totally to Canon with the EOS MkV 3 when it came out. Most of their business is commercial video (photos is less and less). I'm a non-pro so I am probably looking at the D610 as much as a D800 replacement but if it had 4k and touch screen I'd definitely save up for it.

Gjesdal

@tman Why touch screen? I've never tried a camera with touch screen so I don't know if it actually is a good thing, but I've never wanted any camera to be touch screen. Build-in WiFi and GPS on the other hand *drool*

haroldp

The largest NEF (lossless compressed) I have ever had from the D800 is 76 mb, most are between 52 an 65 mb.
A 3TB disk drive is $129 .

Adding a side grip / battery case to the D800 will take DX mode to 6 fps.

Outside of professional sports photography, that is more than enough.
I don't even do that, I shoot DX t 5 nd FX at 4.

I shoot a lot of wildlife including breaching whales and diving eagles. When I used a D3, I had CH mode turned down to 6 fps.

Everyone I know who regulalry shoots this kind of stuff is always wishing for more buffer space, not more fps, which will fill your buffers faster.

... H

TaoTeJared

Maybe I'm the only one, but I don't see a D810 release for another 2 years. I also don't see a D4x either as the D800 already covers that for 90% of what it would be.

4k video:
I sat in a meeting today with a bunch of people who work with video distribution systems and have been to many trade shows and then the company follow-ups. They build the back-end systems for video and they said that the market is clearly not expecting a even a minimal 4k video adoption rate for another 4 years and should start to ramp up in 5-6 years. There is too little content, service providers (cable, satellite, or internet) do not want to start another upgrade cycle (Cable is still 720p/1080i BTW) and current pipeline systems are unable to handle it. Even on the end user device end, (switches, hubs, matrix boxes) options are not even designed or work badly. Adding 4k to camera's is just not needed before the next generation (D5) of bodies. Honestly there are better options for video with other devices. I have said it before, but I do believe video will just naturally move to separate systems and DSLRs will have it, but not used much.

Symphotic

...Everyone I know who regulalry shoots this kind of stuff is always wishing for more buffer space, not more fps, which will fill your buffers faster....

+1

TTJ: I can still wish for 4K.

If any of you are in New York this week and can get to the American Museum of Natural History, there is an exhibit on the "Exosuit" atmospheric diving system. As part of the exhibit one of our ROV systems with our cameras will be displayed. We didn't get the 4K underwater video camera built yet, but my client has the underwater HD video cameras and some special equipment for imaging coral reefs on display.

WestEndBoy

Maybe I'm the only one, but I don't see a D810 release for another 2 years. I also don't see a D4x either as the D800 already covers that for 90% of what it would be.

4k video:
I sat in a meeting today with a bunch of people who work with video distribution systems and have been to many trade shows and then the company follow-ups. They build the back-end systems for video and they said that the market is clearly not expecting a even a minimal 4k video adoption rate for another 4 years and should start to ramp up in 5-6 years. There is too little content, service providers (cable, satellite, or internet) do not want to start another upgrade cycle (Cable is still 720p/1080i BTW) and current pipeline systems are unable to handle it. Even on the end user device end, (switches, hubs, matrix boxes) options are not even designed or work badly. Adding 4k to camera's is just not needed before the next generation (D5) of bodies. Honestly there are better options for video with other devices. I have said it before, but I do believe video will just naturally move to separate systems and DSLRs will have it, but not used much.

Agreed. But it will be nice to have for those "moments".

TaoTeJared

Agreed. But it will be nice to have for those "moments".

And watch on what? Hell even my high end monitor isn't 4k! I'm not a video person at all and the "moments" all I have with me is a digi cam that can do video good enough.

For "moments" I would rather fire away at 36mp.

Ade

I was at a technical conference recently with a colleague who is a lead with a major cable company (one of the largest in the world). Not only they are preparing 4K content, they are already making plans to invest in 8K equipment ("skipping" 4K).

To them it doesn't make sense make major capital investment to roll out 4K in a couple of years, only to scrap it again soon afterwards for 8K -- when they could go right to 8K ready equipment and save money in the process. I believe the timeline is to have full 8K capability by 2020.

The advantage of 8K is not only resolution, but the new 8K standard also allows for wider-gamut, frame rate, and color depth when compared to 4K.

Large screen 4K TVs are available now for consumers for under $1000. So for content providers, those not already capturing 4K today and have a roadmap to 8K are taking a risk to be left behind.

Ironheart

See the discussion here as well, we are talking the same language:
http://forum.nikonrumors.com/discussion/874/d800-compared-to-medium-format-digital-backs#Item_81

The move to 4K and 8K isn't only about going from 2MegaPixels to 8MegaPixels to 33MegaPixels, it's about increasing color from 8bits to 10 or 12 or more (rec. 2020 is spec'd to 12). This is huge though, 8bits is 16million colors, 10bits is 1 billion and 12 is 68 billion colors. Oh yeah, and do that at 120p frames per second. Bring it on!

tman

@tman Why touch screen? I've never tried a camera with touch screen so I don't know if it actually is a good thing, but I've never wanted any camera to be touch screen. Build-in WiFi and GPS on the other hand *drool*

For video it's useful to free up hands to do other things and is a quick way to choose what's in focus. My friend and his crew use different devices to support camera AND add different types of motion into the video so freeing up hands is very useful. Even in my case (amateur using a video monopod) I can see clear advantage in that approach.

bowiesalvatore

Thanks everyone for taking the time to help with my predicament. I'm so sorry that I've forgotten that I've started a discussion on this forum. I noticed the title was sort of changed, but it's fine, I can live with it. To answer most of your questions about what lenses I own, I have the Sigma 35mm 1.4 Art, Nikon 50mm 1.4G (am going to upgrading this to the new Sigma 50mm 1.4 Art), the Nikon 18-140mm 3.5-5.6 (my spare), Nikon 24-70mm 2.8, Nikon 70-200 f4 VR (the latest VR, planning to upgrade this to the 2.8) and the Nikon 14-24 2.8. I'm not a professional, photography is just a serious hobby for me and I travel a lot (a lot), and I love taking pictures on the go. Having said that, I would really love to feel comfortable being able to shoot in any circumstances, which is why I'm a little skeptical about how much the D800 can offer in terms of general all-rounded photography, because you never know when your kid is going to start running about and if some of you are parents, you'll know how fast kids are these days. Since my first post I've been to Japan, and brought along a D600 with me, it was great, but what I really don't like is the autofocus system, which was not what I expected since it was only as fast as my old D7000. The D800 is faster in that respect, but with the release of the D4S I was really expecting an upgrade to the D800 system with Expeed 4, at least 6fps (7-8 in 1.2/1.5x crops), 60p 1080 video recording, and definitely... definitely the new group AF mode. I really hope that nikon could also add autofocus customizability like they have on canons, but I've tried the group AF and it's good enough for me. So the question now is, is it worth the wait? Or should I just go with the D800. I have not had the chance to use a D800 for extended periods of time so I have to rely on your expertise on the issue. Thanks guys

sevencrossing

Having said that, I would really love to feel comfortable being able to shoot in any circumstances, which is why I'm a little skeptical about how much the D800 can offer in terms of general all-rounded photography, because you never know when your kid is going to start running about and if some of you are parents, you'll know how fast kids are these days.

I, and a lot of people here, use a D800 for general all-rounded photography
(We cant afford a D4s and like the fantastic IQ of the D800)
Regarding fps you might be interested in this thread
http://forum.nikonrumors.com/discussion/2210/can-the-the-decisive-moment-be-captured-at-4-fps/p1
As far as speedy kids are concerned, 4 fps should be more than adequate
That said even 6 fps might not be fast enough for some subjects, and the D4s might be your only answerer

What to do ? If you buy a D800 today and you want to upgrade to the D800s in few months/ years time, you might "lose" about $300 -$600 on the sale of your D800 can you afford this ?

Fritz

The D4s is hands down the most all around versatile and generally competent camera in Nikon's line at the expense of the ability to extreme crop. But its lots of money, its big and heavy. The D800 is important where resolution matters but it isn't well suited to action photography. THE 600/610 is OK but not really in the class of the other two. But here's really the question: if you buy the 800 today would it do everything that your photography demands and if so, does it really matter what the 800s capabilities might be? Don't we all get caught in the features/pixel envy hype the manufacturers create to build their markets? The D800 is a camera that requires a lot from the photographer and I suspect that you will have years of utility from one and it will be an interesting process to discover all the parameters of that camera and how to utilize that system to its fullest degree. Most of us can spend years with a camera and never fully explore all of its capabilities. My vote is to buy the 800 and have fun.

TaoTeJared

... I would really love to feel comfortable being able to shoot in any circumstances, which is why I'm a little skeptical about how much the D800 can offer in terms of general all-rounded photography, because you never know when your kid is going to start running about and if some of you are parents, you'll know how fast kids are these days. ...

The D800 can handle any type of photography easily. If the shot is missed, it is the photographer not the camera's fault. It is the most versatile system to me because of the ability to crop massive amounts off and still have more resolution than a D4.

There is a common misunderstanding what AutoFocus can actually accomplish and how much is really the photographer. The common expectation from amateurs is that the camera should capture almost every single shot. That is 100% false. When I shoot kid portraits, (I do more environmental work- so they are "doing whatever") the hit rate for "perfect" photos is about 10% and Usable rate is about 20%. And that is using fast lenses and multiple speedlights. If I'm not using speedlights then that drops easily down to 5%. If it were just for FB posts that rate would be near 50%. For amateurs shooting without speed lights, I would expect to see keeper rate of 1 out of 10 or if they "machine gun" photos, 1 out of 50 would be keepers.

I use a D800 which is the same AF as the D4. I know a D4s will not increase that at all except for maybe 1 or 2 frames per session out of 400. The ability to crop cleanly is more important to me than a couple of frames so the D800 it is. When I get into a situation where I'm missing a ton of shots not for a moment does "I need a new D4s" enter my head. What does enter in it is, "I need more speed lights!" It is the amount of light that will determine more than AF.

Shooting high speed anything (needing a shutter speed above 1/250th to freeze motion- like kids) has more to do with the photographer setting the camera up correctly and anticipating a shot, than any camera or newer feature. There is no such thing as "a single setting for everything" where you can set it and forget it. Nor are the settings the same for every photographer as everyone shoots differently. That means you have to try each setting to see what works best for you. That is the only (and cheapest) way you will get more "hits" on shooting kids.

WestEndBoy

Well said TTJ.

What I say is, "You will need to spend hundreds of hour practicing before a D4 will be much better than a D800 in respect to auto-focus. Are you willing to spend hundreds of hours practicing?"

Usually, the answer is no.

snakebunk

@WestEndBoy: Why does the auto-focus improve more on the D4 than on the D800 if you spend hundreds of hours practicing?

WestEndBoy

What I mean is that before you can exploit the advantages that a D4 vs D800 or D800 vs D610 can offer over each other, your technique will need to be good enough to tell the difference.

So for many people, unless they are serious about putting the time required into photography, there is no point to buy the most/more expensive camera.

Rx4Photo

@ bowiesalvatore, just to approach a couple of concerns from a different point of view, for shooting your own kid's environmental photos around the house or at parks or parties and such, the photos that I've always thought were the most appealing DID involve a little motion blur. Such as those of them running thru the back yard, on a swing set, in a bounce house, tree house, pillow fights, etc. This is one of those situations where trying to get tack sharp images could detract from the true emotion the image could convey. Keep in mind that this is from a more artistic point of view that I'm speaking.

Even with a D4, machine gunning at 11 frames/second will reward you with more time at the computer with hundreds of files to delete. You've gotta be ready for that action and having a D4 wont necessarily make you any more ready than having a D800. I think the times that I've missed really good photos with my kids as been when there hasn't been adequate light to grab certain images, but then one of the benefits of the D800 is the convenience of the pop-up flash. Not the most flattering light but at least it's there. Not on the D4/D4s. Purely personal opinion but short of better high ISO quality, I also don't expect an Expeed 4 to do very much more for my photography than my Expeed 3.

As for travel, I would much rather travel with a D800 and an extra battery in my pocket than a D4. I do have the battery grip for my D800 which I use for my rare wedding shoots and portrait sessions. It makes the camera pretty big but I leave it at home when travelling.
I just kind of think the D800 is the more "all-around" and carry around tool to use. OTOH, if I were paid to take a D4 everywhere then I'd certainly take it.

Symphotic

.... one of the benefits of the D800 is the convenience of the pop-up flash. Not the most flattering light but at least it's there. Not on the D4/D4s...

As for travel, I would much rather travel with a D800 and an extra battery in my pocket than a D4.

.... if I were paid to take a D4 everywhere then I'd certainly take it.

Point 1. The pop-up flash is an excellent CLS controller unit. There are other ways of controlling off-camera strobes, but the D800's pop-up is very quick to set up and always there.

Point 2. Yep. I'm off to a remote job this week (Dexter, Mi..remote for me, anyway). A D800, a 24-120, and a spare battery is enough.

Point 3. I had a client that wanted to upgrade his D700 to a D4 when they first came out. (I sell purpose-designed camera systems as well as some of the other stuff I do.) We talked it through and decided to wait several months for a D800, a D7000 and an underwater housing. The D4 is for that stratospheric user who knows what exactly the D4 is and how to get the extra $3000 of utility out of it. For us tropospheric users, it's better to apply that capital to other useful tools.

On New Year's Eve I kept company with a photographer from a major Japanese newspaper while he was on a job. He was carrying two D4s. Never once in the day did he fire off more than one exposure at a time. He said when he needed 11fps, he was happy to have it, but he could have done the job with a D800, or a D700, or even a Df. He was getting paid to carry 2 D4s.

I'm still hoping for 4K vid on the next pro camera. We were looking at some 4K video recently and it's amazing.