With Canon bringing out a 50 Million pixel camera, Nikon will respond witha a simular if not better model. The Nikon D4 appeared in January 2012 so so will becoming up to the 4 year possible Model change .I made the decision to sell my D4 now, before any new models came out to help stop the depreciation which would decrease its value. I had a D4 and a D810 and found I wa using the D810 most of the time and the D4 was just left in the studio. This was due to my workflow changing but found the D810 coped well except for the very fast FPS rate if I needed that requirement.
Camera Bodies drop dramatically in price even more so, when a new model appears.
Thats life, but it still hurts.
Camera, Lens and Tripod and a few other Bits
Comments
in fact most digital stuff, loses most of its value after 3 years
Financially it is better to sell an existing model before the new one comes out
but this not possible, if you need to use it before the new one comes out
I have not sold my D800 and bought a D810
If / when the D820 or D900 comes out; my D800 will replace my D700 as a spare
and I will give my battered D700, which is valueless, to a deserving person
"Camera Bodies drop dramatically in price even more so, when a new model appears.
Thats life, but it still hurts". I feel the same way that you do. Remember highly paid pros get their gear for free so it bothers them very little. Recently when the D810 came out I took a huge loss on my D800e when trading it in. Then my Leica M9p took a huge loss with the new M240 that came out. That's over 3 grand in lost cash just these past 2 years. However, at least Leica bodies hold their value a bit better than Nikon digital bodies especially if you keep them in 90%+ condition....
Once again the old saying rings true "invest in glass not bodies"
Mind you compared to the loss factor that Digital medium format cameras loose, perhaps we should consider ourselves lucky. I think the Nikon camera that kept it's value was the D3S and still makes amazing prices on Ebay. Fortunately I have a few Nikon lenses and they seem to keep their price.
For the best IQ you need good glass and the latest sensor
there is not a lot of point in buying a AF-S NIKKOR 500mm f/4E FL ED VR
and putting it on a 10 year old camera
Having said that, You make a valid point.
framer
But, I really want a full frame mirrorless which will use my Nikkor lenses.....
Actually selling the cameras....will give to grandson most likely....
Cameras, they hold up. No new software puts any higher demands on them then before. It's just us and magazines that tell us the latest is the greatest. After all, we're not talking about the first few crappy P&S w/ 1.3MP that were thrown on to the market for the techies in the early 2000s. This technology is pretty much in "for $1Billion in R&D we're going to squeeeze another half stop of DR out of this sensor within 2yrs" territory, the curve of technological advance is not that steep anymore IMO.
but that does not matter, like yours it is still taking great pictures
As for the OP's original question, like any tech the best day to sell a camera is before it arrives at your door step and you open the box. Nikon is the only one making money on these cameras, they are not investments.
I would say each of these was a quantum leap forward, which isn't/wasn't the case with D800/D810 or D3s/D4. Those were more like a D7100 to D7200 upgrade, which most folks didn't do. It seems as if skipping a generation is your best bet, be it on the consumer Dxxxx, Semi-pro Dxxx or Pro Dx.
It seems like we might be hitting the point of diminishing returns on DSLR technology, 50MP, 15FPS are here, and getting past those limits probably requires a different approach, like mirrorless, or other game changer. Time will tell, but you may already own your last camera:
http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/february-2013-nikon-newsvie/last-camera-syndrome.html
I like to keep and display my old cameras. Since there is so much time between my cameras, it kinda makes sense to keep and display.
With this logic, my present camera should last me the rest of my life.
https://sonyvnikon.wordpress.com/
The thing what does seem to make a difference is when Nikon bring out a new processor for a camera, I loved my D3X but was amazed how better the D4 was in comparison, I think, the D810 with its updated processor just has the edge on the D4 , but thats progress, and I am all for that. Like my D4 I bought the extended warranty and unless something very special comes out from the Nikon stable I will be keeping my D810 for the 3 year warranty period.
Example Hasselblad HD5 60 million Pixel camera body, 180 actuations cost £28,000 offered at £1399 00 now thats scary.
I am happy, in fact very happy with my D810 so it would have to be very special to temp me.
At this moment in time I think i have the perfect setup, Nikon D810, Zeiss Otus 55 1.4 lens and DxO pro 10 Elite software.
With regard to mirrorless FF cameras I will wait and see, Thats a big technology move, It took Nikon 4/5 attempts to get the One camera right, so forgive me for being a little cautions
Personally, I don't think camera value is worth anything now. Manufacturers used to upgrade their pro SLR cameras every couple years or so. Think about how long Nikon took to bring the F6 to market after the F5. Now the upgrade pattern is every 2-3 years.
When I bought my D7000, I was going to trade in my D40 on a whim. I think it was worth $50 after adding in all the body caps, manuals and batteries. It wasn't worth it, because I couldn't get another DSLR for $50.
The F2 1971 12 years
The F5 came out in 1996 the F6 2004 8 years
D1: June 1999.
D2H July 2003 ~ 4 years.
D3: August 2007~ 4 years.
D4: January 2012~ 4 years
Expect the D5 announcement for the winter of 2015/2016, -
I also couldn't agree with you more about the staggering drop in prices on medium format cameras. It's enough to strictly make you buy used bodies only if you can wait at least 6 months. That Ebay example, you gave is a perfect example! I simply value money too much to have that much of a depreciation and certainly it is why you started this discussion. Again a great topic to discuss Paul.