I have never used my mobile camera simply because I hate to compose a picture on an lcd screen. For more than 55 years, I have been used to SLR cameras and the idea of seeing a subject and composing is real unlike composing it on a lcd screen or monitor. Checking depth of field, sharpness, composition, angle of view, perspective observing critical expression is all real when you view through the actual view finder rather than with live view!. Besides, I guess that the mirrorless cameras are going to consume more battery and the sensor life is going to be short just as we change our mobiles very frequently these days. Even the Apple's touch screen has failed many times and the live view has disappeared! Humidity and dust causes lots of problem!? I feel that the SLR should remain as such and mirror less for those who prefer to carry less weight. I think, I will give up photography once and for all, if DSLR disappears!
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Lastly, I don't think slr's are going to be extinct anytime soon.
Think of a future viewfinder as a heads up display - closer to what a pilot uses than a 100% visual viewfinder. It can and should have all the benefits of a visual viewfinder, but let me also have the ability to use an EVF for magnified viewing, zooming, histograms, and focus peaking all through a viewfinder. It's not new technology - just not available in a top DSLR today. Nikon had most of this in the V1.
The replacement of DSLR's by "mirrorless" is 100% certain. I will miss the viscerally satisfying mechanical feel and sound of the SLR, but look forward to the many many advantages of the EVF.
As for tracking a moving subject, I am not aware that EVF delays cause a problem in current video photography, but if I am wrong here, I am still confident that within a few short years of engineering, that delay would no longer be significant.
I do however have some issues with the "mirrorless" side of the argument.
The delay will be engineered out (or some other limitation).
I have been waiting 20 years for the delay to be engineered out of the internet. It still has not happened. It makes a difference if you are an accounting clerk with a stack of a hundred invoices. On an accounting system hosted on a server over an Ethernet connection. There is no latency. A good clerk just lets their fingers run. If the system is in the cloud, your fingers have to wait until the cloud based system refreshes. I had to hire extra staff to deal with this and now I am working on ways to mitigate this.
How does this relate to issues like EVF delay etc.? Well, promises are always being make and they often never materialize. Everybody assumes that technology is going to get faster and faster, but Moore's law is not what it is anymore. It is getting harder and harder to engineer those improvements.
There is an assumption that focus in DSLRs (or any other factor for that matter) is static, implicit in the comments that "Mirrorless" focus systems only need to catch up.
Well, Nikon has proven with the last few focus iterations that there is lots of room for improvement in DSLR focus technology. The D4's Canon competitor was essentially on par with the D4. Starting with the D4s and continuing with the D5, Canon is no longer a close competitor. If you read Thom's comments after extensive use of the latest Sony and Nikon, you will see that there is a gap that likely does not matter with landscapes, but will with other genres. Will Sony advance with their mirrorless? Likely. Will they close it? Well, Nikon is not standing still (though Canon is, but I suspect that Canon will eventually awake from their slumber).
So. May lag disappear and the gap in focus disappear? Maybe, but it is not a certainty and I push back against those that assume it is certain. I am still waiting for a practical flying car. That would "solve so many problems".
You could start off with one spacer left on the camera to which you then mount any of your current lenses. Later, when you acquire new, shorter lenses, you could have several of these spacers, each left "permanently" on each old lens.
We really should cut Nikon some slack. I can't think of a manufacturer of absolutely any type of hardware (not just cameras) who has been so devoted to backward compatibility, and implemented it so well. And we know Nikon's respect for the long term lens investments of their customers has had technological costs.
PB_PM, the price of adapter is a non-issue too me. I only need one or two.
• 360mm tele lens on FX camera or a 240mm lens on a DX camera
• Subject: say a flying bird distance 50m (164ft)
• Movement: say bird flying at 20m/s (45mph) horizontally across your field
• EVF delay: say 1/100 sec (is this a reasonable number for the state of the art today???)
For this example, at 50m range, the frame covers a 5m field, so flying at 20m/s the bird would traverse the horizontal frame in 1/4 sec. The above assumption of 1/100sec delay would cause an EVF tracking error of 1/25 of the frame width...just 4% of the frame width.
Quite likely the elimination of blackout (as in the new Sony A9) and other potential gains in shutter release lag from not having a mirror banging back and forth, would more than compensate for a small EVF delay.
I would certainly expect a pro-level Nikon mirrorless introduced in 2018-2020 to equal or exceed the 2017 Sony A9
Obviously the controls were all wrong for me but I think that is something I could get used too. I'm now very interested to see what Nikon can do with the concept. I'm now thinking of renting a Sony a9 and seeing how I shoot with it.
Nikon is going to drop the F-mount for mirrorless, whether we like it or not. As much as I am on the side of keeping the F-mount, Nikon is a profit driven company, and will push forward with a new mount. Why? Because they know people like WestEndFoto will drop $20-35k on a new set of glass if they can convince him that the new Nikon mirrorless camera makes the Nikon D850 look like a D1 from 1999.
Even the 1.2 argument. I hear it a lot but have seen nothing actually convincing. My 50 1.2 AIS seems to work fine.
The EF mount is simply larger, albeit not by much, which means they have more room to work with. It's why you can mount Nikon glass on a Canon body with an adapter, but not the other way around. That and there is no physical aperture lever or hardware required for any camera bodies or lenses, since they've always used an electronic aperture, like 'E' lenses since 1987. That's about it. It's really a non-issue as far as I can tell.