Z9 "Hell Yes" says Nikon

Pistnbroke

Well now they are talking about it and suggesting a spec.

Nikon Z9 is expected in the fall of 2021
No official plans for a Nikon Z8 camera yet
Prototype Z9 cameras may be tested at the Tokyo Olympics next year
New Nikkor Z 400mm f/2.8 mirrorless lens is also rumored for the Olympics
The Z9 is described as a D6 body combined with EOS R5 imaging, α9II AF, and blackout-free EVF
46MP (previous rumors suggested a 60MP sensor)
20 fps
8k30p, 4k120/60/30p
New EXPEED processor designed for 8k
Improved AF (Object detection AF)
Two XQD/CFX type B memory card slots
ISO 64 – 25,600, Hi1, Hi2
High resolution, blackout-free EVF
New user interface (no second LCD screen on the back like he D6)
New battery: Nikon EN-EL18x
Gbit LAN, USB-C, WiFi, GPS
Price: $6,000 – $7,000

Interesting they say 45MP which says two things to me ..
Buy a Z7ii at 45 MP because waiting for 60MP ain't going to happen.
Z8 will be the 60 MP but we will wait to sell all the Z7 ii we can first

WestEndFoto

In my opinion, I think that the Z8 and Z9 will have the same body, using the Z6/7 and D3/3x playbook. This would suggest that the Z8 will be the sports camera and that the Z9 will be the high mp.

However, perhaps Nikon is committing to their new sports cameras having 46mp. This would be a departure from the past, but I would not that 46mp is just large enough for 16:9 8K video. Nikon might be saying, "OK, the pros want great low ISO performance, but the low ISO performance difference between the D850 and D5/6 is actually pretty minimal once you down sample and pros "on balance" will be OK giving that small benefit up if they get 8k video."

In that case, I cannot image the high megapixel camera being only 60mp. I would expect something bigger.

As an aside, if pros are also worried about the size of the raw files, a sRaw file could be made to be about 12mp if they combine 4 pixels into one. That is D3 performance and likely large enough for lots of pros.

photobunny

It will be interesting to see what design language the 400mm f/2.8 adopts. Will they go big white with Canon or stick to the the minimalistic black of the new Z lenses.

mhedges

Specs look great but that price...

Guess it's not too bad really considering the price of the D# line. I just hope a lot of the tech winds up in the Z6/Z7 models because I have no interest in a big pro style camera with a built in grip.

PB_PM

If the Z9 is the D6 replacement, which it sounds like it is, keeping the MP at a modest level may have been a choice for shooting speed and to get that blackout free EVF? Maybe they couldn’t get the high ISO performance they wanted from the 60MP sensor, it sure would explained that. As for price what did people expect? It was going to cost at least as much as the D6, so no surprise to me that it would be high,

photobunny

PB_PM said:

If the Z9 is the D6 replacement, which it sounds like it is, keeping the MP at a modest level may have been a choice for shooting speed and to get that blackout free EVF? Maybe they couldn’t get the high ISO performance they wanted from the 60MP sensor, it sure would explained that. As for price what did people expect? It was going to cost at least as much as the D6, so no surprise to me that it would be high,

The 45MP sensor is surprising enough never mind the 60MP. Mind the pro bodies have been at 20ish MP for so long because thats what pro sports shooters and editors where wanting. There must be some step up change here that they want all the shooters to have access to 8k video now.

WestEndFoto

PB_PM said:

If the Z9 is the D6 replacement, which it sounds like it is, keeping the MP at a modest level may have been a choice for shooting speed and to get that blackout free EVF? Maybe they couldn’t get the high ISO performance they wanted from the 60MP sensor, it sure would explained that. As for price what did people expect? It was going to cost at least as much as the D6, so no surprise to me that it would be high,

That is a good point. With the newer sensors, the readout speeds are faster and that limiting factor at the high end is about to become much more limiting, perhaps even disappear for 46mp sensors. It is even evident in the Z6's BSI sensor vs the Z5's FSI sensor. The BSI can do a full readout at 4k 30p with a 24mp sensor while the FSI cannot at 24mp and the BSI has to line skip at 46mp. Note, I suspect that it is not the BSI technology that widens the bottleneck, but the technology that happens to be in the BSI sensor.

WestEndFoto

Another thing to consider is that every camera is a learning opportunity and I suspect that benefiting from the learning opportunity is always Nikon's strategy from the start.

Consider the Z6 and Z7. Nikon probably preferred the no 2nd card no grip strategy but needed to test it. If successful, they would make that a feature of the Z8 and Z9 and allow them to differentiate their product more. As an initial product at launch, Nikon may have decided to test how customers would respond to no grip no 2nd card. They could always update the cameras if the response was negative, which it was and they did.

Now consider the Z9. Nikon may be testing, "Will pros be willing to give up a bit of high ISO performance to get 8k 30p at 16:9 plus higher resolution in return?" If yes, then the Z8 can be a high megapixel beast. If no, then the Z8 will have 20-24mp and be the sports camera and the Z9 II will be the high megapixel beast.

There is an excellent Photography Life review that delves into the sRaw files on the D850 and how Nikon got it right compared to the D810. The sRaw files are just as clean as the Raw files. Interestingly, they chew up bandwidth somehow in the processing because the buffer capacity declines which pros will not like. I believe that it is likely that even if that bandwidth issue exists, it won't matter because with all the extra bandwidth being supplied by the newer sensors and the new Expeed, FPS and buffer capacity (especially with the dual CFX cards) will not be a factor.

Pros can then shoot sRaw with no appreciable impact on IQ, FPS or buffer capacity which will be 11.3 (or so) mp. Just like a D3 and any pro complaining about resolution can still shoot in mRaw which will be higher resolution, but still a smaller file size.

Finally, regarding high ISO performance, once you down sample a D850 file to a D5/6's file size, there is very little practical difference in high ISO performance - though there is some. I personally think that the differences in ISO performance between sensors of different MP is not the issue it once was and has turned into a bit of a myth. Sure there is a difference, but I challenge one to demonstrate a practical difference in a web sized file just like I would challenge someone to demonstrate a practical difference between a 24mp and 46mp sensor in a web sized file.

Note that the difference in ISO performance is obvious when you pixel peap, but unless the end user pixel peaps (like me!!!!), I stipulate that the difference is minimal after down sampling.

photobunny

@WestEndFoto over at CanonRumours a chap much smarter than me did a lot of analysis on the noise between sensors of the same generation and what kind of noise levels where between say 20MP and 45MP. It came out quite compelling that sensors of the same generation will have about equal levels of noise, but the higher MP will always produce more detail. You don't really get better low light unless you make the sensor physically larger so that it can collect more light. On a FF body that has 20, 30, or 45MP the photons are being captured all the same and it is the processor that is gonna affect the noise.

Though in the past there has been a lot of marketing about how such and such camera has bigger pixels, but a bigger pixels is collecting the same light data as the 4 smaller pixels that could replace it.

WestEndFoto

photobunny said:

@WestEndFoto over at CanonRumours a chap much smarter than me did a lot of analysis on the noise between sensors of the same generation and what kind of noise levels where between say 20MP and 45MP. It came out quite compelling that sensors of the same generation will have about equal levels of noise, but the higher MP will always produce more detail. You don't really get better low light unless you make the sensor physically larger so that it can collect more light. On a FF body that has 20, 30, or 45MP the photons are being captured all the same and it is the processor that is gonna affect the noise.

Though in the past there has been a lot of marketing about how such and such camera has bigger pixels, but a bigger pixels is collecting the same light data as the 4 smaller pixels that could replace it.

Yes, I think that is the essence of the matter. Note that I am not saying that there is no difference, only that it is minimal. And for what I shoot , the small differences are not important enough for me to get into the weeds on why the small differences exist.

And this is coming from someone that hates noise unless it is part of the creative decision. I liberally use tripods to avoid it, even carrying them with me all day when I am on vacation.

WestEndFoto

Here is an interesting article by Thom that adds to this discussion. Note that his perspective is different from mine (and I acknowledge that I am guessing with the ultimate objective of learning). Note his comments on the sRaw files.

https://www.zsystemuser.com/nikon-z-system-news-and/lots-of-speculation-few.html

photobunny

Its a shame they didn't go Z1 pro to Z9 entry level. Perhaps just Canon training me to thing 1 = number 1 best. Though, at least I am confident these are series and not numbers that change. The Z9 is the pro sports body series and will have a mark II/III/IV/V/IV between now and 2044. Hopefully the end of affixes to lenses too. Simple marketing improvements go a long way to sell to customers.

Though this does kinda seem like the Z50 is the D500 then or maybe we are getting a Z90 with the Z9.

WestEndFoto

photobunny said:

Its a shame they didn't go Z1 pro to Z9 entry level. Perhaps just Canon training me to thing 1 = number 1 best. Though, at least I am confident these are series and not numbers that change. The Z9 is the pro sports body series and will have a mark II/III/IV/V/IV between now and 2044. Hopefully the end of affixes to lenses too. Simple marketing improvements go a long way to sell to customers.

Though this does kinda seem like the Z50 is the D500 then or maybe we are getting a Z90 with the Z9.

My prediction, and there is some probability that I am wrong, is that there will be a Z30 (perhaps with a flippy dangly screen for vloggers) but not APS-C camera higher than a Z50.

Consider that the Z50 body only is about $850 in the US and the Z4 is about $1,400. Then if Nikon slaps a ff fsi sensor in a Z50 (the Z50 has a BSI sensor) calling it a Z3 and perhaps sells it for $1,200, how will you sell at $1,000 plus APS-C camera to anything but a niche.

Fuji is going to have a problem here. But at 5% of camera sales, they are already a niche. But Nikon and Canon have put a ceiling on what Fuji can do.

APS-C is probably 2/3 of interchangeable lens cameras. I wonder if Nikon and Canon with their RP have just cut that share in half, especially if Nikon launches my mythical Z3 and Canon responds in kind.

And where is Sony on full frame? They have nothing to answer the Z5 or Canon R and RP. Their latest release is a video camera that is expensive and limited if you are a photographer. Sony better get its act together or they will be heading back to Fuji market shares.

photobunny

Canon and Nikon will soon have a full line of f/1.2 primes that will be a big wakeup call to Sony and their choice to not upgrade their mount and take that hit at the start. Never mind the RP and Z5 hitting off. I personally don't see Canon making a APSC RF camera, I think they know APSC is dead and they can sell cheeper FF cameras to people that would have never went FF before. Nikon and Canon need cameras that are just too ahead for mobile phones computational photography to keep up.

WestEndFoto

I would not write off APS-C just yet. Even if my idea above pans out, APS-C is still a third of sales. Nikon will want to carefully consider messing with that.

mhedges

There are rumors that Canon will discontinue the EOS M line, which to me would mean they would have to come out with an RF mount APS-C body because there's no way they can abandon that market right now.

photobunny

mhedges said:

There are rumors that Canon will discontinue the EOS M line, which to me would mean they would have to come out with an RF mount APS-C body because there's no way they can abandon that market right now.

Or they produce more FF cameras below the RP and let APS-C die. Their rebels and EOS-M have been their best sellers, if they are dropping EOS-M it'll have to be something really nifty. Already the RP is under £1000 and well into the same territory as the higher end APS-C.

PB_PM

There is also a rumour that the M50 MkII is about to come out, so the rumour of that lines demise might be exaggerated.

mhedges

I just can't see Canon walking away from APS-C completely. Not right now, anyway. Sure the market has declined a lot but they still sell quite a few more APS-C than FF cameras.