The Photograph Industry 30 years from Now

heartyfisher · March 2015

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heartyfisher · March 2015

interesting .. windows 10 supports hologram interface and environments.

michael66 · March 2015

interesting .. windows 10 supports hologram interface and environments.

I was wondering when someone would mention holography. I would love to see that possible in an affordable and small form factor ( carry in your hands ). And of course... color.

My future seeing eyes seem to be quite dormant. When I put the camera and dark room away some twenty years ago, I truly expected to see bigger improvements in the optics by now. Something along the lines of the DX 50-300, 4.5-5.6, but coming out as FX 24-400, 1.4 and less than $1000. Yeah, that'll happen. :O

heartyfisher · March 2015

interesting .. windows 10 supports hologram interface and environments.
I was wondering when someone would mention holography. I would love to see that possible in an affordable and small form factor ( carry in your hands ). And of course... color.

My future seeing eyes seem to be quite dormant. When I put the camera and dark room away some twenty years ago, I truly expected to see bigger improvements in the optics by now. Something along the lines of the DX 50-300, 4.5-5.6, but coming out as FX 24-400, 1.4 and less than $1000. Yeah, that'll happen. :O

If you think about it .. it has happened !! even over and above what you said !

Ironheart · March 2015

Isn't there a 150-600? Close enough anyway.

My prediction is that 30 years from now people will still be shooting film. And DSLRs. And lightfield cameras, and holographic recorders. Just like they do today in small numbers. Just like people still ride in a horse and carriage today. Whatever the technology is, and I think it will center around enhanced reality from multiple inputs and massive composite rendering of the current scene, it will not fully supplant older forms.

NSXTypeR · March 2015

Isn't there a 150-600? Close enough anyway.

My prediction is that 30 years from now people will still be shooting film. And DSLRs. And lightfield cameras, and holographic recorders. Just like they do today in small numbers. Just like people still ride in a horse and carriage today. Whatever the technology is, and I think it will center around enhanced reality from multiple inputs and massive composite rendering of the current scene, it will not fully supplant older forms.

30 years from now there may not be any parts to fix a DSLR, I'm not sure if Nikon will provide parts for that long either. Plus, they stopped supplying parts to independent repair shops, so there's that too. Maybe the only way to repair DSLRs is to cannibalize existing DSLRs.

In any case people will still be doing photography, except it may not be DSLRs. I kind of like optical viewfinders though, so maybe doing film photography might be the only way to get a working optical viewfinder 30 years from now.

I posted this in another thread, but Kodak's been reduced to printing touch sensors and its former factory grounds is being rented out to salsa producers.

Ironheart · March 2015

30 years from now there may not be any parts to fix a DSLR, I'm not sure if Nikon will provide parts for that long either. Plus, they stopped supplying parts to independent repair shops, so there's that too. Maybe the only way to repair DSLRs is to cannibalize existing DSLRs.

I can still repair cameras from 30 years ago, parts notwithstanding. Yes, you can either cannibalize old cameras, or make parts from scratch. In 30 years, I'll be able to print just about any part I need on a 3D printer, so I don't think those of us that want to keep them going will have any trouble doing so. Do you hear horse-carriage folks today complaining they "can't get parts" to keep them on the road? Do 60 year old cars still drive down the road?

WestEndFoto · March 2015

30 years from now there may not be any parts to fix a DSLR, I'm not sure if Nikon will provide parts for that long either. Plus, they stopped supplying parts to independent repair shops, so there's that too. Maybe the only way to repair DSLRs is to cannibalize existing DSLRs.
I can still repair cameras from 30 years ago, parts notwithstanding. Yes, you can either cannibalize old cameras, or make parts from scratch. In 30 years, I'll be able to print just about any part I need on a 3D printer, so I don't think those of us that want to keep them going will have any trouble doing so. Do you hear horse-carriage folks today complaining they "can't get parts" to keep them on the road? Do 60 year old cars still drive down the road?

In 30 years, new cameras will be printed on 3d printers (my prediction). There may be some minor assembly and a few parts that require exotic non-printable materials (high end lens elements perhaps).

michael66 · April 2015

If you think about it .. it has happened !! even over and above what you said !

Isn't there a 150-600? Close enough anyway.
Not really there. Not at all. The Tammy is three times longer, weighs many times more, and is a variable aperture lens. Definitely not a 1.4. This dream lens of mine would combine the Holy Trinity ( 24-70, 70-200, 200-400 f/2.8 ) into a single really short and light form factor lens. And be faster than a bat out of heck. I did spec it as a 1.4 as a 1.0 would just be utter insanity. ::snort::

heartyfisher · April 2015

ok what about the tamron 16-300 F3.5-F6.3 with 4 stop vibration reduction .. ? thats a bit less that F1.4 in some reckonings :-B

NSXTypeR · April 2015

30 years from now there may not be any parts to fix a DSLR, I'm not sure if Nikon will provide parts for that long either. Plus, they stopped supplying parts to independent repair shops, so there's that too. Maybe the only way to repair DSLRs is to cannibalize existing DSLRs.
I can still repair cameras from 30 years ago, parts notwithstanding. Yes, you can either cannibalize old cameras, or make parts from scratch. In 30 years, I'll be able to print just about any part I need on a 3D printer, so I don't think those of us that want to keep them going will have any trouble doing so. Do you hear horse-carriage folks today complaining they "can't get parts" to keep them on the road? Do 60 year old cars still drive down the road?

Actually, I forgot to factor that in. Interesting thought. You may want to print in metal though, plastic may not be enough.

sevencrossing · April 2015

What changes, do you think we might see in PP

A frequent comment is. I don't want to wast time in PP

Imagine LR had scene recognition. Not only would it automatically apply an appropriate preset but also learn how you modify the preset and apply that too?

Needles to say you could switch it off

NSXTypeR · April 2015

What changes, do you think we might see in PP

A frequent comment is. I don't want to wast time in PP

Imagine LR had scene recognition. Not only would it automatically apply an appropriate preset but also learn how you modify the preset and apply that too?

Needles to say you could switch it off

I would love that!

I love photography but I hate editing.

Ironheart · April 2015

Actually, I forgot to factor that in. Interesting thought. You may want to print in metal though, plastic may not be enough.

30 years from now you will be able to 3D print in metal, but it will be the equivalent of building it out of wood or stone. Yes, you can, but why would you when there will be composite materials that are far better than metal. Look at the chassis of the BMW i3:

paulr · April 2015

NSXTypeR In 30 years from now there will no PP .Everything will come from cameras perfect. That will make Photography really boring. LOL.

NSXTypeR · April 2015

Actually, I forgot to factor that in. Interesting thought. You may want to print in metal though, plastic may not be enough.
30 years from now you will be able to 3D print in metal, but it will be the equivalent of building it out of wood or stone. Yes, you can, but why would you when there will be composite materials that are far better than metal. Look at the chassis of the BMW i3:

Your image didn't come out right, but I think I know what you're talking about.

I know you can CNC metal to make parts without machining it right now- Jay Leno has a CNC machine that he uses to make parts for some of the rare cars he has- but that's not 3D printing really, that's just a 3D milling machine for the most part.

NSXTypeR In 30 years from now there will no PP .Everything will come from cameras perfect. That will make Photography really boring. LOL.

That would be cool and terrifying at the same time.

sevencrossing · April 2015

30 years in the past vs 30 years in the future ? i think the difference will be much more.. tech is always accelerating....

Today is the 50th anniversary of Moore's Law
Will it hold good for another 50 years?
Moore himself does not think so

heartyfisher · April 2015

heartyfisher said:

30 years in the past vs 30 years in the future ? i think the difference will be much more.. tech is always accelerating....

@sevencrossing said
Today is the 50th anniversary of Moore's Law
Will it hold good for another 50 years?
Moore himself does not think so

So you are agreeing or disagreeing that's its accelerating .. I am not certain.. :-)

Ironheart · April 2015

Moore's law is decelerating. The process sizes are going to hit a wall known as quantum tunnelling in the near future. This will represent a barrier to further size reduction, unless scientists can learn to use the effect to their advantage.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_tunnelling
Tunnelling occurs with barriers of thickness around 1-3 nm and smaller,[12] but is the cause of some important macroscopic physical phenomena. For instance, tunnelling is a source of current leakage in very-large-scale integration (VLSI) electronics and results in the substantial power drain and heating effects that plague high-speed and mobile technology; it is considered the lower limit on how small computer chips can be made.[13]

But don't take my word on it, how about Moore himself:
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/203677-silicon-valley-celebrates-moores-law-looks-forward-to-next-50-years

"When asked about the future of the traditional interpretation of Moore’s Law of exponential progress in semiconductors, Moore says it’s drawing to a close. He cites the atomic-scale and speed-of-light limits that silicon chips are approaching as good reasons to expect a slowdown this decade."

The 50th anniversary of Moore's law is today. On April 19, 1965 Electronics Magazine published a paper by Gordon Moore in which he made a prediction about the semiconductor industry that has become the stuff of legend.

All that being said, he, and I, are both very positive about the acceleration of technology and scientific innovation. Think of Moore's law as the push to get you going, the force of that initial push may recede, but the effect of it will continue onward.

Msmoto · April 2015

As to the idea on post processing.... only I know what I want to see in the final product. Best example is my post on PAD today.....FYI, I used a flash box below so as to have the lighting "from above" so the upside down image would look like it does. No computer could ever figure that out...