Maybe Nikon will surprise us, but my gut says no. I don't think there's enough space between the D610 and the D750, spec wise or price wise, to make a compelling new product. What would you downgrade on the D750 to make a cheaper camera that's also still better than the D610? Maybe if they did something radical, like make it super small like the D5500, or made it mirrorless or something it could make some sense.
I predict it will come out next year and be pretty much the same except that it will have a 36 megapixel sensor which will allow Nikon to continue to use this sensor after they bring out the D820 with a 48-60mp sensor. This will allow Nikon to continue to cut costs and reduce the price to make FX accessible to the masses.
In my opinion, this is consistent with Nikon's longer term strategy to phase out DX.
If the consumer has a choice between a 50 mp DX sensor or a 100 mp FX sensor and the FX camera only costs $50 more and weighs 100 grams more, how many will buy DX.
Likely some, but not enough to sustain a decent level of production.
I think Nikon recognizes this which is why they will focus on reducing the price of FX. I think you will see a D500 ((FX version of the D5xxxx) and a D400 (FX version of the D3xxx) in a few years.
I don't think it is a question of "if", but "when" and it is like predicting that the egg will break after falling off the table, but not knowing how high the table is off the floor.
The D620 is already out, it;s called the D750. I expect the D760 to be an improvement, maybe with more MP, but there is nothing wrong with 24MP. I'd rather see other improvements, like in terms of the wifi app than another minor spec bump.
If I take a good photo it's not my camera's fault.
Why would they want to kill DX and lower the price of FX to DX levels when they're able to charge FX users much more in the current paradigm?
Also, the size/weight/cost of FX lenses would be a turn off to many people. The casual consumers currently buying DX would probably just say F-it and go use their cell phone instead.
And further, it'd be a big opening for other manufacturers still making APS-C and M43 cameras to steal sales. They could come in and say "hey, our cameras are smaller, lighter, cheaper, have 50 - 100% more range, and the quality is nearly as good as those big FX cameras" and I bet a lot of people would go for it.
I think that phasing out DX is inevitable. I predict 10 years.
LOL! In 10 years a lot can happen! The DX product system will always be smaller, cheaper and lighter because of the sensors and lenses so I can't see Nikon snubbing those who want the advantages of cheaper, smaller and lighter system especially if other manufacturers will fulfil that need.
Even if the Dxxxx series is no longer produced and all Nikon DSLRs are FX I would expect the DX sensor to migrate down the line into a Coolpix series like the Coolpix A. The Coolpix A form factor can be used to place a DX sensor into a Nikon 1 size. Surely a moderate non-removeable zoom can easily be used and I expect to see such a Coolpix (B?) appear soon. All Nikon needs is an EVF, a new lens mount (or use the old f-mount), a couple of new interchangeable lenses sized for that new mount with an adapter to use Nikon's current DSLR lenses and Nikon has a whole new series to sell.
I don't think it is a question of "if", but "when" and it is like predicting that the egg will break after falling off the table, but not knowing how high the table is off the floor.
I predict 10 years.
I think the egg hasn't fallen yet, so predicting when it will break is a fool's errand ;-)
In 10 years there will be almost no DSLR bodies. Most everything will be mirrorless and when one views through the camera it will be exactly like viewing through a DSLR of today.
Now that is a prediction, about the same validity as anyone else's for 10 years out... )
Why would they want to kill DX and lower the price of FX to DX levels when they're able to charge FX users much more in the current paradigm?
Also, the size/weight/cost of FX lenses would be a turn off to many people. The casual consumers currently buying DX would probably just say F-it and go use their cell phone instead.
And further, it'd be a big opening for other manufacturers still making APS-C and M43 cameras to steal sales. They could come in and say "hey, our cameras are smaller, lighter, cheaper, have 50 - 100% more range, and the quality is nearly as good as those big FX cameras" and I bet a lot of people would go for it.
Because if Nikon does not kill it, the market likely will.
Consider that the purpose of DX was to save the Nikon F-Mount when the non-professional market was switching to digital. An FX sensor was not even possible and even a DX sensor was thousands.
I believe that in 10 years, give or take a few, FX sensors will be almost as cheap as DX sensors so there will be no savings on price. And if Nikon does not lower the price of FX, the competitors that do will eat its lunch.
There is not much savings in weight and size. Sure DX cameras are smaller than FX, but that has little to do with the sensor. I think that it is possible to make an FX DSLR only slightly larger than the D5500 and if they switch to mirrorless, it may even be possible to go smaller.
The current DX format has an inherent disadvantage in the flange diameter, which is large enough to accommodate FX but larger than needed for DX (by a little more than double if measured by area). In the long run, it will be hard for Nikon's DX to compete against other APS-C lines without this issue.
Range will not matter if the sensor is a hundred megapixels. Just switch the "DX switch" and you will have your range.
Even if the Dxxxx series is no longer produced and all Nikon DSLRs are FX I would expect the DX sensor to migrate down the line into a Coolpix series like the Coolpix A. The Coolpix A form factor can be used to place a DX sensor into a Nikon 1 size. Surely a moderate non-removeable zoom can easily be used and I expect to see such a Coolpix (B?) appear soon. All Nikon needs is an EVF, a new lens mount (or use the old f-mount), a couple of new interchangeable lenses sized for that new mount with an adapter to use Nikon's current DSLR lenses and Nikon has a whole new series to sell.
I can see this. Then they can optimize the mount for DX. I bet it will be a square sensor mirrorless.
If the consumer has a choice between a 50 mp DX sensor or a 100 mp FX sensor and the FX camera only costs $50 more and weighs 100 grams more, how many will buy FX.
Likely some, but not enough to sustain a decent level of production.
I think Nikon recognizes this which is why they will focus on reducing the price of FX. I think you will see a D500 ((FX version of the D5xxxx) and a D400 (FX version of the D5xxx),
I don't think it is a question of "if", but "when" and it is like predicting that the egg will break after falling
In 10 years there will be almost no DSLR bodies. Most everything will be mirrorless and when one views through the camera it will be exactly like viewing through a DSLR of today.
Now that is a prediction, about the same validity as anyone else's for 10 years out... )
OK, I shall put my money where my mouth is with a new thread.
@WestEndFoto said: "Because if Nikon does not kill it, the market likely will."
The market is made up of many different people with many different needs/desires - you cannot think that yours is the only or defining view surely? reviewing the marketplace shows us how there is space for many formats each having different mixes of advantages/disadvantages. The phone camera may be killing low end point and shoots, but cameras for people truly interested in photography seem to be ok (for the moment) and there is a very wide range of those available.
@WestEndFoto said: "Because if Nikon does not kill it, the market likely will."
The market is made up of many different people with many different needs/desires - you cannot think that yours is the only or defining view surely? reviewing the marketplace shows us how there is space for many formats each having different mixes of advantages/disadvantages. The phone camera may be killing low end point and shoots, but cameras for people truly interested in photography seem to be ok (for the moment) and there is a very wide range of those available.
I agree. My comments imply more certainty than I have. I am just saying that the current DX system is hobbled in a way that others are not.
But in another respect, as a way of adding value to Nikon's current FX line, it was brilliant and made (and continues to make) Nikon a pile of money.
I think both the f mount, dx and fx will be phased out and replaced with a medium format mirrorless system, E lenses can be used with an adapter. There may be small lenses that doesn't use all of the sensor. The system shall be called Nikon 2.
Both DX and FX on Fmount will have to be phased out. It only makes sense.. I have the Nikon1 V1 and its an awesome kit technically.. its obviously more advanced than the DSLR in many ways.. Its obvious that the Mirrorless DX/FX is the next iteration/evolution. The A7RII has shown that the Mirrorless body is now at least equal to the DSLR.. Nikon will need to reply to it... I am confident Nikon will... I have my kit all settled in for the wait and the inevitable first products blues Planing for my next upgrade in 3-5 years.. in the mean time I will be enjoying my photography with my last DSLRs ! (they are pretty awesome though .. will have lots of fun :-) )
DRev A7RII review --
Post edited by heartyfisher on
Moments of Light - D610 D7K S5pro 70-200f4 18-200 150f2.8 12-24 18-70 35-70f2.8 : C&C very welcome! Being a photographer is a lot like being a Christian: Some people look at you funny but do not see the amazing beauty all around them - heartyfisher.
Comments
http://forum.nikonrumors.com/discussion/4072/d610-followup-d620-d650#Item_91
In my opinion, this is consistent with Nikon's longer term strategy to phase out DX.
If the consumer has a choice between a 50 mp DX sensor or a 100 mp FX sensor and the FX camera only costs $50 more and weighs 100 grams more, how many will buy DX.
Likely some, but not enough to sustain a decent level of production.
I think Nikon recognizes this which is why they will focus on reducing the price of FX. I think you will see a D500 ((FX version of the D5xxxx) and a D400 (FX version of the D3xxx) in a few years.
I don't think it is a question of "if", but "when" and it is like predicting that the egg will break after falling off the table, but not knowing how high the table is off the floor.
I predict 10 years.
Also, the size/weight/cost of FX lenses would be a turn off to many people. The casual consumers currently buying DX would probably just say F-it and go use their cell phone instead.
And further, it'd be a big opening for other manufacturers still making APS-C and M43 cameras to steal sales. They could come in and say "hey, our cameras are smaller, lighter, cheaper, have 50 - 100% more range, and the quality is nearly as good as those big FX cameras" and I bet a lot of people would go for it.
Now that is a prediction, about the same validity as anyone else's for 10 years out... )
Consider that the purpose of DX was to save the Nikon F-Mount when the non-professional market was switching to digital. An FX sensor was not even possible and even a DX sensor was thousands.
I believe that in 10 years, give or take a few, FX sensors will be almost as cheap as DX sensors so there will be no savings on price. And if Nikon does not lower the price of FX, the competitors that do will eat its lunch.
There is not much savings in weight and size. Sure DX cameras are smaller than FX, but that has little to do with the sensor. I think that it is possible to make an FX DSLR only slightly larger than the D5500 and if they switch to mirrorless, it may even be possible to go smaller.
The current DX format has an inherent disadvantage in the flange diameter, which is large enough to accommodate FX but larger than needed for DX (by a little more than double if measured by area). In the long run, it will be hard for Nikon's DX to compete against other APS-C lines without this issue.
Range will not matter if the sensor is a hundred megapixels. Just switch the "DX switch" and you will have your range.
If the consumer has a choice between a 50 mp DX sensor or a 100 mp FX sensor and the FX camera only costs $50 more and weighs 100 grams more, how many will buy FX.
Likely some, but not enough to sustain a decent level of production.
I think Nikon recognizes this which is why they will focus on reducing the price of FX. I think you will see a D500 ((FX version of the D5xxxx) and a D400 (FX version of the D5xxx),
I don't think it is a question of "if", but "when" and it is like predicting that the egg will break after falling OK, I shall put my money where my mouth is with a new thread.
The market is made up of many different people with many different needs/desires - you cannot think that yours is the only or defining view surely? reviewing the marketplace shows us how there is space for many formats each having different mixes of advantages/disadvantages. The phone camera may be killing low end point and shoots, but cameras for people truly interested in photography seem to be ok (for the moment) and there is a very wide range of those available.
But in another respect, as a way of adding value to Nikon's current FX line, it was brilliant and made (and continues to make) Nikon a pile of money.
Anything else you want to know? :-)
DRev A7RII review --
Being a photographer is a lot like being a Christian: Some people look at you funny but do not see the amazing beauty all around them - heartyfisher.