4 Bodies, 11 Cameras

WestEndFoto

Something Thom said has me thinking. And this is my hypotheses, with due credit to Thom for picking up on it - well he better, he lives Nikon.

Entry level:
Z30, Z2, Z3

Enthusiast level:
Z50, Z4, Z5

Prosumer level:
Z70, Z6, Z7

Professional level:
Z8, Z9

This would be very clever of Nikon.

NSXTypeR

Makes sense, that's what they do now with the F-mount cameras.
DX-
D3500/D5500
D7500/D500

FX-
D610/D750
D850/D5

WestEndFoto

NSXTypeR said:

Makes sense, that's what they do now with the F-mount cameras.
DX-
D3500/D5500
D7500/D500

FX-
D610/D750
D850/D5

Not quite. The Z6 and Z7 are truly "nearly" identical. 99% of the parts are common. The D850 - D5 for example, much less commonality.

NSXTypeR

WestEndFoto said:

Not quite. The Z6 and Z7 are truly "nearly" identical. 99% of the parts are common. The D850 - D5 for example, much less commonality.

That's the benefits of going to a clean slate design.

I think that's just Nikon trying to get as much out of the current lineup as possible. I can imagine Nikon will make a mirrorless D5 equivalent once they flesh out the Z mount exotic telephoto lenses, like the 200mm F2 and 400mm 2.8.

tc88

In my opinion, way too many, especially for the market size now. It took Nikon 2 years to put out 3 models, how many years will take them to put out all these 11? I think 2 crop, 3-4 full frame at most. Of course, the older revisions will still be there, just like you can still get a new D610 or D7200, or D3400. But for all practical purpose, they have been replaced.

WestEndFoto

But if you think about it TC88, how long will it take Nikon to come out with a Z4 and a Z5 (differences along the same line as the Z6 and Z7)? Coming out with a Z30 might be five times the work of a Z5 if Nikon designed the Z50 right. The Z70 might be a Z6/Z7 with a crop sensor so that r&d is effectively done.

I think that Nikon has done 40% of the r&d for the initial Z cameras, not 3/11ths.

If I am right Nikon has got massive bang for the buck on r&d, massively simplified the manufacturing logistics and delivered a product line that is easy to understand.

spraynpray

I would do what tc88 said if I were Nikon. Also, lets face it, economies of scale and all that, why not make only prosumer level crop camera and make it cheaper. If you shoot with it in auto mode, it doesn't maker how many features it's got and you just may want to get more into photography later and use the other features.

Too many bodies is a waste of resources in a shrinking market.

IMHO.

WestEndFoto

But that is my point Spraynpray. There are only 4 bodies. The Z6 and Z7 are single body not two. The only difference being only a small amount of parts, perhaps less than a dozen. Add a Z70 with a crop sensor on a Z6/Z7 body and you have NOT added a body, just SKU. They could probably get it into production with two months notice instead of two years.

tc88

Ok, what you are saying is just 4 cameras, more sub models (like D800 and D800E). I think that's more reasonable. But I still don't think we will have that many models. For example, your Z2/3/4/5, I think at most there is one. Because Nikon is going to charge quite some money for the FF lens, and very few people want to match those with cheap but feature little cameras. It's just not a good overall investment. Also your Z70, even if it comes out, it won't sell well because the price will likely be only a couple of hundred lower than Z6. People will choose FF at that point and be done, instead of worrying about whether to upgrade later.

WestEndFoto

You forget the non-S lenses, particularly the compact full frame lenses which may be less than $500 each and with a few additions and a 10mm DX and 15mm DX gives you a full set in both FX and DX.

I think your point about the models (SKUs) is valid. But Nikon will have the options for 12 SKUs (and we currently have 3 SKUs on two bodies) based on my theory (and I acknowledge that it is a theory). Why 12 instead of my earlier 11? Because I doubt that Nikon will offer a DX camera based on the Z8/Z9 body. I think that the Z8 and Z9 will be medium and high res versions of the D6.

So they don’t have to fill this out completely, but they will in part I hypothesize and they have the option to add SKUs on short notice.

mhedges

4 bodies might be reasonable, but like others have said 11 cameras is too many. I think you only need 1 FF camera under Z6, for example. And I'm not sure how many crop sensor models we will get - it may be three, but I also wouldn't be surprised if there are only 2.

PB_PM

WestEndFoto said:

Something Thom said has me thinking. And this is my hypotheses, with due credit to Thom for picking up on it - well he better, he lives Nikon.

Entry level:
Z30, Z2, Z3

Enthusiast level:
Z50, Z4, Z5

Prosumer level:
Z70, Z6, Z7

Professional level:
Z8, Z9

This would be very clever of Nikon.

Not really all that clever, simply way more cameras than needed. It's this strategy that has led to Nikon having warehouses full of older out of date cameras. They need a minimalist lineup to a) reflect the shrinking market, and b) reduce R&D, marketing and other costs. One camera in each market position is more than enough.

DX:

Z30 entry level D3xxx & D5xxx replacement. Why just one entry level model? This is the segment of the model that is having sales drop the fastest, no need to confuse people in this budget class by having multiple models. Just offer the camera with different kit lenses or something like that.

Z50 hobby shooter class (D7xxx replacement): This is going to be the best selling class going forward, I suspect. Nikon has messed it up a bit, which they might have to fix in an update later.

FX:

Z6 hobby shooter class, and all around, good camera. Like the D750, jack of all trades, master of none, but it does the job.

Z7 mid-range, for pros who more resolution and or that amateur that has money to burn

Z8 photojournalist/sports/action model: For the person in that shrinking class of pro photojournalists and pro sports shooters, or that amateur with more money than sense.

tc88

WestEndFoto said:

You forget the non-S lenses, particularly the compact full frame lenses which may be less than $500 each

I know. But most people buying low cost cameras tend to buy all around lens and be done. That's why there are all those kit lens and 28-300 type. The compact primes are more for people who already have other equipment as a change of pace playing around type.

I do wonder sometime how it will pan out if Nikon takes a make to order approach like Dell, and let people order the sensor/memory/frame combination and have it ship to the buyer in a week. I guess B&H will really complain in that case. But even in that case, they can have the demos in store and let the stores take the commission if it's ordered through them. However, this may be a too drastic change in operation that the conservative Japanese companies may never do.

Pistnbroke

Forget all this body rubbish they still have not got the focus on the Z7 up to D850 standard. Let them spend the R & D on that

WestEndFoto

Another thing reducing the bodies does is reduce parts across the lineup, which is supposed to be one of the primary benefits of mirrorless.

spraynpray

I see what you mean WEF, but don't you think - if what you surmise is true - that Nikon would just be showing that they have learned nothing and have a death wish.

@PB_PM The D750 is the camera I wish I had never sold.

WestEndFoto

You might be right Spraynpray. I am proposing a view to generate discussion. While I admit my mind won’t let it go, I know it is highly speculative. I am thinking of writing a fictional “retrospective” to illustrate further. So far the discussion has influenced my thinking, and that will be in the “retrospective”.

NSXTypeR

tc88 said:

Ok, what you are saying is just 4 cameras, more sub models (like D800 and D800E). I think that's more reasonable. But I still don't think we will have that many models. For example, your Z2/3/4/5, I think at most there is one. Because Nikon is going to charge quite some money for the FF lens, and very few people want to match those with cheap but feature little cameras. It's just not a good overall investment. Also your Z70, even if it comes out, it won't sell well because the price will likely be only a couple of hundred lower than Z6. People will choose FF at that point and be done, instead of worrying about whether to upgrade later.

That was my argument against DX Z mount lenses. DX is a figment of limitations of manufacturing, and when we couldn't get full frame sensors. I don't think splitting the lineup is smart as you end up with lens incompatibilities again. The last thing you want is to explain to a consumer why there's a difference and confuse them more. Now you technically have 4 lens lineups in Nikon's stable.

PB_PM

spraynpray said:

@PB_PM The D750 is the camera I wish I had never sold.

Yup, it does a lot of things very well, very glad I've hung onto mine. It gets way more use than my D810. Best camera I've had other than the D700, and that's only beacuse the D700 is the last camera I purchased new that was trouble free and never had any recalls or focus issues. That's the camera I wish I hadn't sold.

Pistnbroke

Strange isn't it how one person can love a camera I would not give house room to .

"only" 24 MP and with a low pass filter..no not for me ( or a Z6 ).

It only shows how difficult it is to market to the photographic public.

Ton14

Yes, it becomes impossible to market to the public Pistnbroke.

Quote:
For the last years profit on high end camera's are down, latest (today) info from Canon: Sales down 13.9% and profits down 56.8% in the imaging division from Q3/2018.

The report, released yesterday, details that sales of Canon's interchangeable lens digital cameras continued to decrease as compared to Q3/2018, owing largely to the seemingly ever-decreasing market demand, particularly as things like cell phones continue to overtake low-level cameras. Nonetheless, mirrorless camera sales increased.

Nonetheless, the company expects an approximately 20% overall decrease in total cameras sales over the entirety of 2019 as compared to 2018.
End Quote.

Nikon figures were about the same.

I'am so glad Nikon still makes great camera's for us, because photography is changed dramaticly all over the world and innovation for cameras is far behind compared with mobile phones.

BVS

I could see Nikon maybe eventually making a Z1 super premium compact like the Sony RX1R or something, but I'm not sure users would be happy with a FF ILC decontented much more than a Z5.

Z5 with kit lens is already as light as a D3500 + 18-55 AF-P and quite a bit smaller. To go below that you'd have to start dropping things like the viewfinder, video specs, grip, dials, and maybe lose the mechanical shutter completely. This could work on a Z30 using a minimalist M200 type of body perhaps, but FF I'm not sure.

Still, it'd probably create a lot of buzz. They'd just need some compelling compact FF lenses to match with it.

Overall, the four types of bodies logic makes sense though.

PB_PM

Pistnbroke said:

Strange isn't it how one person can love a camera I would not give house room to .

"only" 24 MP and with a low pass filter..no not for me ( or a Z6 ).

It only shows how difficult it is to market to the photographic public.

What it shows is that everyone has different needs. No point in taking 36MP+ shots for a 800x600 news website shot. Even 12MPs cropped to death are fine at that size. I don’t need to zoom in on some politicians zits, nobody cares.

WestEndFoto

This is a very interesting article from Thom that has given me new things to think about:

http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/followup-on-nikons-financia.html

PB_PM

Nothing Thom, and others haven't been saying for a long time now. Nikon hasn't understood it's user base for a while now. Price hikes, hobbling things to protect sales of others, and more. They have been hurting themselves like this for a long time now. I was hoping the change of CEO's a few years ago would bring some correction, but it's just more of the same, and they wonder why the people that are still buying cameras are jumping ship on mass.

mhedges

I'm kind of two faced about his whole "improve social media integration" argument. On one hand I think it's important, and I agree that anything to improve / streamline the workflow is very welcome. But I also agree with those that say that it won't save the ILC camera market. Because using a phone will always be easier, because you are only using one device instead of two, and phones will always be easier to carry around.