What Z lenses are you looking forward to or hoping for

WestEndFoto

photobunny said:

@PB_PM stuff the sports guys, I’m having one for my arctic foxes and polar bears with my 1.4x TC attached to it.

For polar bears, the longer the focal length the better.

photobunny

Well it looks like my todo list is the 100-400(pre ordered), 400pf or 400 f/2.8 TC, and the 800 pf. The 400 pf I’ll want to be f/4.x for it to be justified over the 100-400, otherwise the 400 2.8 tc covers the fox range.

PB_PM

mhedges said:

Yeah i think it’s more for wildlife. 800 is long for most sports.

At the end of the day it's for whoever can afford it.

mhedges

PB_PM said:

mhedges said:

Yeah i think it’s more for wildlife. 800 is long for most sports.

At the end of the day it's for whoever can afford it.

For sure.

Any guesses on price? I'm seeing estimates all over the place. From $4000 to $20000!

I'll go with $8000.

photobunny

Lots of wishful thinking on the price. It is 1/3rd of a stop slower than the reassuringly expensive f/5.6 and it looks like the front is about as big as a 500mm f/4.0. I'll go for $7500-$11000.

PB_PM

mhedges said:

PB_PM said:

mhedges said:

Yeah i think it’s more for wildlife. 800 is long for most sports.

At the end of the day it's for whoever can afford it.

For sure.

Any guesses on price? I'm seeing estimates all over the place. From $4000 to $20000!

I'll go with $8000.

I would guess that it will cost the same or more than the F-mount 800mm F5.6.

mhedges

PB_PM said:

I would guess that it will cost the same or more than the F-mount 800mm F5.6.

I can't see it being that much. $16k+? Isnt the PF supposed to make it cheaper?

I would not be surprised if it's a 5 figure lens though.

PB_PM

mhedges said:

PB_PM said:

I would guess that it will cost the same or more than the F-mount 800mm F5.6.

I can't see it being that much. $16k+? Isnt the PF supposed to make it cheaper?

I would not be surprised if it's a 5 figure lens though.

FP makes it lighter, for sure, cheaper? Maybe, but this is a S lens, so that should tell you all that you need to know about what the price will be.

DaveyJ

Morten Hilmer shooting in the Far North could use one! For me that is very long. I do think when I get the 100-400 I have on order, I'll want a 1.4 TC VERY soon.

photobunny

Quite a small 800. Sadly according to my calculations unless the small human is used as a donkey I'll only be able to bring the 400 f/2.8 TC or the 800 f/6.3 with me when hiking a few miles from the car.

photobunny

I wonder if the 28-75 f/2.8 is to provide a fast lens to take some pressure off the permanently out of stock 24-70 f/2.8.

mhedges

Huh I didn't realize there were stock issues with that lens. It's in stock at B&H and Adorama.

photobunny

@mhedges as always, depends on region.

mhedges

Good point. From what I can tell in the US the Z lens availability is pretty good right now. I'm even seeing the 105 MC in stock for the first time.

photobunny

mhedges said:

Good point. From what I can tell in the US the Z lens availability is pretty good right now. I'm even seeing the 105 MC in stock for the first time.

The 105, 70-200, and primes have been easy to get here. The 14-24, 24-70, and mk2 bodies started getting hard to find after July. Since late November it has become hard to get the 105 macro as well.

Searcy

I just got the 85mm S but I'm tempted to get the 105 MC.

DaveyJ

I get my 100-400 Z lens this Tuesday from my local dealer. I am after the 200-600 Z lens when that becomes available. But I want the Z9 and my local dealer cannot accept the pre-order. Probably should have pre-ordered that through B&H but for a technical reason my credit card cannot accept pre-orders that I had to use for that purchase as I did not have the cash on hand.

DaveyJ

I think the S 800 F 5.6 PF should price at NO MORE than $7,000. The lens technology that those lens use makes it considerably less expensive to make.

PB_PM

I believe Nikon said the reason there were shortages of the 300mm and 500mm FP lenses was due to difficulties in making the PF elements. Will the S 8000mm be under $10k. I have my doubts.

photobunny

There is no reason for the 800 PF to be under $10,000. PF makes for shorter and lighter lenses and not necessary cheaper lenses. I am sure we’ll eventually get a 600 f/4 PF and will be delighted to pay a premium for it being half the length and weight of Its predisessor. I also keep in mind the price of the Canon 400mm f/4.0 DO.

WestEndFoto

photobunny said:

There is no reason for the 800 PF to be under $10,000. PF makes for shorter and lighter lenses and not necessary cheaper lenses. I am sure we’ll eventually get a 600 f/4 PF and will be delighted to pay a premium for it being half the length and weight of Its predisessor. I also keep in mind the price of the Canon 400mm f/4.0 DO.

I would agree on the likely price. And at 6.3 I don't see Nikon coming out with a higher end non-PF unless they want a halo product - maybe a 800 f/4.0 or 1,000 f/5.6 - both with internal 1.4 TC.

In my gut I thought the Z9 was going to be less than $6k because I thought Nikon would want to pump it into the market. I did not push that very hard though because I deemed the probability at less than 50% - but more than 10%.

The same may apply here. Nikon might aggressively price this for the same reason - in which case we might see it for something like $8k. I am thinking that is a 30-40% probability though. Still less than 50% but more optimistic than I was with the Z9 because of the surprise with the Z9's pricing.

mhedges

Agree. Z9 pricing is the only reason I think there's even a chance for it to be in under 10k. Even then though I think it's unlikely. Relatively speaking the Z9 has a much broader potential market than a 800mm prime lens.

photobunny

The Z9 pricing is shift people over to Zed to sell the (much more) profitable lenses. I don't see a reason to sell any of the lenses for any less than we can be successfully milked for. Nikon can push bodies at a loss or for minimal profit but that requires earning a profit on the lenses.

mhedges

Good point. Also Z9 lost a somewhat expensive component (the shutter) and I'm not sure what could be dropped from lenses to achieve a similar savings.

Capt_Spaulding

mhedges said:

Good point. Also Z9 lost a somewhat expensive component (the shutter) and I'm not sure what could be dropped from lenses to achieve a similar savings.

VR perhaps.