When to expect D750 successor?

WestEndFoto

I don't think the D750 is due for an upgrade. The DF and D810 are and the D610 is screaming for an upgrade.

In the days of film upgrade cycles were not two or three years long but 6 or 8 years. Digital and Moore's Law changed that but it is slowing down. In the future you can expect upgrade cycles to lengthen as the technology matures.

vtc2002

I think Nikon should discontinue the D6** line all together. It's hard to tell who the targeted consumer is for camera. You could say entry level full frame consumer but throw in a little more money and you can get the D750. If you look at the competitors they have entry level full frame cameras (Canon 6D) that are several hundred dollars cheaper than the D610.
I agree with Peachblack that Nikon hasn't released anything exciting for a long time. Releasing a entry level full frame camera that will probably be hobbled to not compete with the D750 (or its upgrade) is not going to impress anyone. Spending their time and effort to release something revolutionary for their 100th year anniversary would be a better use of their time.

WestEndFoto

So what do you say to that full frame budget conscious enthusiast? Go buy a 6D? Or here is a D620 for $1,250 USD

Ironheart

Nikon looks at these things from a cold-hearted business point of view, and we all look at it from an emotional "what would be good for me" or "what I want" point of view. If a camera is still selling, they will not upgrade it. Period. First rule of business, "don't kill the goose that lays the golden eggs".

The D750 is #15 on amazons best seller list. That means its likely still selling thousands of units a day. Nikon won't touch it.

As an aside, the #1 seller is the D3300 with 18-55 kit lens.

https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Camera-Photo-DSLR-Cameras/zgbs/photo/3017941/ref=zg_bs_nav_p_1_p

BVS

WestEndFoto said:

So what do you say to that full frame budget conscious enthusiast? Go buy a 6D? Or here is a D620 for $1,250 USD

I question whether "budget conscious" and "full frame" belong in the same sentence these days. If a person is having trouble affording the body, how are they going to afford the extra thousands for the lenses? Sure, there's older lenses/used/refurbs and a few value options available, but if they're going that route why not just spend the same money for a used/refurb D750?

I still believe that the D750 will eventually become the D610 replacement. The deals this past holiday season already had it at $1,499. This time next year it'll probably be pretty close to that price point.

Looking at it another way, how do you upgrade the D610 without making it a D750? Even if you only upgraded the AF and metering you'd end up with two almost identical cameras.

If a D610 replacement does come to pass, I feel it'll be something quite different than the current camera - super down-sized like the D5500, or mirrorless like Canon is rumored to do with the 6D, or something.

PeachBlack

As I hinted at before, one could see the D610 keeping the 24mp sensor and getting a processor/af buff, the D750 getting the 36mp sensor and a processor buff, then the D810 getting a bigger sensor. I think this might make sense for Nikon if the D810 replacement sensor is 50mp+. The 42mp Sony a7rii sensor just isn't different enough from the 36 to make this happen.

To me, this makes some level of sense, but that doesn't mean it's in any way going to happen.

Ironheart

@PeachBlack if we agree with your assessment, then the question becomes "top down" or "bottom up"? Meaning, do they start with the D8xx upgrade, and work down to the D6xx or vice versa. I bet they do top down, which means D6xx folks may be waiting a while before they get a bump.

PeachBlack

Top down, of course. The D810 would probably make the biggest splash with an upgrade. I'm not sure that Nikon has to be in any hurry to upgrade the D610, actually. Remember, Nikon took 37 years to upgrade the D300.

PeachBlack

Remember, I'm just trying to construct a plausible scenario under which the D600 line continues to exist. I wouldn't be surprised if it disappeared altogether, and I wouldn't be surprised if Nikon just keeps lowering the price and keeps it the same piece of crap it's always been for several years.

vtc2002

@Peachblack The only problem I have with what you have laid out is that I do not care for the D750 body. I like the D810 body and the 36 MP. I am not sure I want the D810 replacement (or at least initially) if they bump the MP over 50. My progression would be upgrade the D750, increasing processor, buffer, frame rate, dynamic range, etc. D810 similar type of upgrades as the D750 and maybe bump MP to 42. Release a new camera i.e. D900 with the 50+ MP and processor, buffer, frame dynamic range, etc. to blow away the competitors. The D610 seems to be living in the shadows of the D600 failure. I am very happy with my D810's and do see the need to upgrade. I had three D800's and every single one of them had one or more issues. I went through 5 replacements and never had one that did not have an issue. I know other who had no issues what so ever with the D800. People say the D810 was a minor upgrade but it was a good one for me. The D750 and D810 are selling well and do not have the image problem that the D800 had or D600. What you laid out is more likely to happen.
@WestEndFoto Given Nikon's recent history, the D620 would cost considerably more than $1250. BH has a refurbished D750 for $1499 ($1896 new) and the new D610 for $1496. I would by the refurbished D750 or pay $400 for a new one is not unreasonable given the D750 features. It doesn't make sense to me that Nikon would upgrade the D610 and then sell it for less than what the D610 is selling for now. That has never been Nikon's pricing model. If the market is calling for a entry level lower priced full frame camera it needs to be a new model unless they can magically decrease the cost of making the D620.

PeachBlack

Well, we can all make lists of what we want and what works for us, but really, this is a pointless exercise. Everything we are doing here is speculation, but there are some things that are more likely than others. We should probably try to speculate using a few criteria: Nikon's past actions, Nikon's current lineup including what most needs an update, what would make business sense, what is technically possible, and what the competition is offering. Thinking about these, I think a D810 update makes the most sense. It's probably Nikon's most important camera in terms of professional perception, and it needs to get its groove back.

WestEndFoto

I think I agree that the D810 makes the most sense in the immediate future.

I harp on the D610 as I am thinking about Nikon's growth (or decline) from a strategic perspective. As some of you may recall, I have predicted the eventual demise of DX as it is currently implemented - using the F-Mount - the sensor size may very well survive and thrive using a different mount. I make this prediction because I believe that eventually the price difference between a DX and FX sensor will be minor - I acknowledge that we are a long way from that now but the gap is narrowing. To that end, I think it makes sense for Nikon to try to reduce the price of its introductory FX offering as the lower price point is where Nikon's volume is. Now the D610 is definitely a consumer build with consumer ergonomics - think an F/N80 back in the days of film. Given the DX D500, the numbering system suggests that the D610 will remain the introductory FX camera.

This is all speculation of course and I think I am a contrarian on Nikon Rumours. The only thing I feel certain of is that we will see cheaper FX offerings in the future.

vtc2002

I agree it is a pointless exercise. It's not like this is a conduit to Nikon and that they are listening to us.

For me whatever they release will be an indicator of whether they are adapting to the changing market and adjusting their business model to be a viable company.

Jeff, You may be right about a market for a entry level full frame. The reason to do this level of camera would be that Nikon would hope that they would upgrade to a higher end model in a couple of years. What would worry me is that Nikon delivers a crappy camera and it has the opposite effect and drives them away. IMHO I think they need to enter the full frame and/or medium format mirrorless market space and enter it with a big bang. All speculation and time will tell.

heartyfisher

I think we all agree that there are currently 4 levels in the FX ranges
1) D5 - D4, D4x
2) D810 - D800a D800e D800
3) D750
4) D600/D610 - Df

How I see the next versions are as follows.

1) D5 -- here for the nexts 4 years -- may have a D5x (50+MP) but unlikely, D4x probably didn't do as well as expected, but they may be try again?)

2) D810 update most likely Probably with more MP, 42+, nice evolutionary upgrade. D810 is already quite sweet. Adding the new AF plus a slight bump in MP. Basically a "nice upgrade" same price exactly fitting the previous niche. High MP version possible.

3) Now here is a fun spot! Previously filled by the D700 (which many still want) but possible forced replaced by the D750 due to the D600 mess. Will it regain its rightful replacement. Ie a Real D700 replacement like the D500( the real D300 replacement)?
I think there is a possibility that the Df2 will be the {D700} !! So I am suggesting the Df2 could be moving up a level into teir 3 with a {D750/D700}.

4) or call it (3.5) So that leaves D750 which is what this level is ie. its the D600/D610 upgraded. A quick update to add snapbridge.. thats it, i think. or it could add Video and become the Video Nikon camera ! But this is probably further down the line.. maybe in 2 years... So yes the D600/D610 line is terminated, I think..

5) a 5th level is still possible. Ie a D3000/D5000 with FX sensor.. ie no Screwdriver focus. Small and light with a D750 AF system. call it the D400 ?

So to summerise
1) D5 stays the same for the next 4-5 yrs.
2) D810 replecement with small bump in MP PLUS a D820x with large bump in MP 50-72MP
3) D700 replacement PLUS Df2
3.4) D750 Updates ...
4-5) D400 D3000/D5000 FX version.

WestEndFoto

OK, if we are having this much fun.......I will bet against myself though.

D5X with 72 megapixel sensor. They might call it the D900. This would wow the market. Suitable for the 100th anniversary. Next month.

A DF2 with the same 72 megapixel sensor and maybe a D810 AF system and two slots. Otherwise a DF and definitely no video. About the price of a D810. If you want 72 megapixels for less that $7,000 this is it. Also for the 100th anniversary. Next month.

A D820 with a new 48 megapixel sensor and the D5 AF. Summer.

The D750 can wait until 2018 when it will be upgraded to the 36 megapixel sensor.

A D620 with the D810's 36 megapixel sensor. $1,250 USD. End of year.

A D400. A D5500 upgraded to FX, otherwise the same. Summer 2018. $999 USD.

D4000 - A D5500 but mirrorless and FX with the f-mount. Fall 2019. $949 USD.

PeachBlack

The New Pentax KP has a new 24MP Sony sensor and 819200 ISO. It might be fun to throw that badboy into a D750 replacement.

heartyfisher

Kp looks cool ! .. but its sensor is DX size.. New D7200 ! :-)

PeachBlack

KP DX? WTF.

spraynpray

The D610 should be further stripped down and sold as the D610a with no autofocus at all just add the filters and firmware off the D810a.

donaldejose

I think full frame mirrorless would attract the most attention this year, followed by a full frame sensor with more than 50 mp. 20+ mp is the norm now for both DX and FX sensors. D7xx FX upgrades from a base D6xx model would have enhanced marketability if they had a higher than 24mp sensor. Assuming the 36mp sensor can now be produced/sold much cheaper than it was at the time of the D800 it would be good to put it into the D750 replacement as PeachBlack suggests. Processor and software improvements can now give it maybe one stop better high ISO IQ making many consumers think it is the "latest and greatest" new sensor. But at the same time Nikon should have a much higher mp sensor to put into the D810 replacement to keep the D8xx line their high megapixel line. Whatever Nikon does will be interesting and welcome. Only certain things though will be highly attractive to users like most of us.

It is getting harder to sell new cameras because we just don't need more than a 24mp DX sensor to post on line, print 8x10 or use for full page magazine spreads. For all "ordinary uses" the last camera anyone really needs arrived years ago. I just used my D500 to produce a series of product photos for an e-bay seller. As a test I wanted to see "how low you can go" for the internet and still produce a fully professional result so I first shot at small basic JPEG ISO 400. No one would know the difference. You can still zoom in and see a spot of lint here and there. There just was no reason to use FX, lower ISO, RAW, a larger size or even JPEG fine. I was surprised at the result of my test. I am doing an event this Saturday which I have done previously with FX. This time I am going to shoot it with my D500. I don't think they will even notice any difference. To me this means that the D500 is really a great buy because it can cover sports/wildlife so well with the new D5 AF system and still be a general purpose not so heavy body. Of course, if you don't need speed the D7200 is an even better buy.

PeachBlack

@donaldejose: as I have always said and will continue to say, megapixels are NOT for printing, they are for cropping. Pair a 36mp sensor with an ultrasharp lens, and you can easily turn 1 photo into 6.

donaldejose

Fully agreed, unless you are printing as Trump would say HUUUUGE. However, for many uses severe cropping will not be done or needed.

PeachBlack

Well, given the crappy highly-centralized focus point location on Nikon's full-frame cameras, if I'm shooting in landscape mode, pretty much all of my photos have to be pretty severely cropped.

And while not done, I'm not so sure about not needed. I don't have quite enough hubris to think that I will always get the best composition at the time of the shot. Almost always with the fullness of time and the ability to patiently inspect a photo, a second shot at composition is almost always a good idea, especially if you back up a tiny bit and allow yourself the room for it.

Of course such an utterance is anathema to purists who somehow think getting the perfect shot in camera is the only real photography, but I'm about as pure as dockside sex worker.

WestEndFoto

They may not be very pure, but it is almost the most honest profession.

Gloor

So, D750 update unlikely this year? Only D810 update?