When to expect D750 successor?

spraynpray

24Mp 10fps D5 AF yes please!

donaldejose

I am thinking the D750 replacement may be a mirrorless body. Not a "replacement" but a substitute. If mirrorless bodies are out late this year or early next year will Nikon continue to produce DSLR bodies or just switch over to mirrorless every time a body is due for an update?

vtc2002

donaldejose said:

Now that I see what is in the D850 and its price (in the USA) and now that Nikon has said it will be releasing mirrorless bodies in 2018, I am wondering about the viability of any meaningful DSLR replacement for the D750 (and the D5 for that matter).

@donaldejose If Nikon's management is serious about their new strategy of producing high end cameras and being a leader in the mirrorless market, I agree with your comment.
From a logistics standpoint, it seems that Nikon is at a tipping point, where do they focus their efforts, DSLR or mirrorless? How are they going to release a high end mirrorless camera. lenses, etc. in 2018? Do they create a new production facility/ production line for the mirrorless product line or do they pull their current designers from the DSLR space and have them focus on the mirrorless product line, etc.? Do they hire new designers and production staff? Either way it will take a lot of time and resources. Nikon management has been in a reactive state for years now and they have been focusing their efforts on a specific target (D5/D500 then the D850) before moving to another product. If their management understands that they will most likely only have one shot at entering the mirrorless market, all of their effort will be devoted to produce a game changing mirrorless product line. I think the D850 will sell very well and help their bottom line. It should give them some breathing room to work on the mirrorless product line and unless they have started a D750 replacement I seriously doubt they will produce a replacement in the near future (at least 6 to 9 months). With the Olympics and other major sporting events coming in 2018 it seems like the likely new DSLR would be a D5 replacement.
With the growth of the mirrorless market I wonder how many more DLSR's will be produced by Nikon (Canon, etc.)? IMHO I think it will be a lot like the Nikon film cameras and they will continue to develop DSLR's but on a longer upgrade cycle until they are no longer profitable to make and sell.

Just my 2 cents.

donaldejose

Agreed, IF the Nikon mirrorless body is great and offers everything a DSLR offers plus more. For example, a mirrorless body would need a very short EVF lag time so people no longer feel they need an OVF for sporting events and BIF. The question, for me at least, will be "Does a Nikon DSLR (D760 replacement, D5 replacement, etc) offer anything of importance which the Nikon mirrorless body at that level does not offer? If Nikon can answer that question with a no, they might as well just switch over to mirrorless for all replacements after the D850. Down at the bottom of the market, the D3xxx level, cost of production will be an important consideration. For example the D3xxx uses a mirrored box rather than a pentaprism. I would think replacing that mirrored box with an EVF would be considerably more expensive. The DSLR body may survive longer at the lower consumer level than it does at the advanced or professional level because the cost of a good EVF would constitute a larger percentage of the selling price. I look forward to the next few years.

KnockKnock

Thinking the D750 replacement will in

Sports said:

donaldejose said:

... I am wondering about the viability of any meaningful DSLR replacement for the D750 ...

Maybe, Nikon will merge D610 and D750, and only do one replacement which doesn't really reach too close to the D850. Would an FX version of the D7500 fit the description?
Even with new mirrorless bodies, it would be too early for Nikon to leave the DSLR market, but reducing the number of bodies makes sense in bad times, and it would pave the way for the mirrorless.

Very possible. I'm thinking the D610 is history, and the D750 replacement may dumb down a little in ways the D7500 did. 1 card slot. Lens compatibility lost. Price can drop if they keep sensor at 20-24MP, to $1750. But the more I think about it, writing this... would it really sell?

With the D850, Nikon surprisingly doubled down on the optical viewfinder in FX. I get the feeling this is a kind of a last-ish swing for the bleachers of the DSLR. For DX the D500 may be that as well. They said quite clearly that they were moving focus towards higher end of their lineup. I don't think that means they totally abandon the consumer market. They just don't want to chase the commodity market.

The D3xxx and D5xxx have been kind of go nowhere models that would be hard/stupid to try to iterate at this point. Maybe there'll be a D5700 as the bottom of the DX chain, but I can't imagine it selling well in the marketplace with a small mirror viewfinder and Nikon's poor video AF.

Really a good question of whether Nikon starts mirrorless in this DX arena first, or FX. I'm guessing DX. Here they already have 18-55 and 70-300mm AF-P lenses. Their build quality (plastic) signals an inexpensive entry into mirrorless, with the hybrid AF of the 1/DL series. Considering we just got the D7500, I'm thinking we'll see this new entry as a D5600 replacement. If they get it right, it'll be smallish, but have great video, cutting edge stills, great AF. It would do very well against the A6300 and would need to compete on pricing. Offer compatibility for F-mount lenses and you have a competitive advantage.

Forget the D3x00 series. The low end is a bloodbath. Everything now has to have a flippy display. I think Nikon finally figured that one out. It's a competitive advantage over cell phones. BTW SnapBridge will continue to obviate any need for their cameras to have GPS.

Add an FX 24-70mm AF-P lens and that would pave the way to FX mirrorless. Since its build quality is higher, I'm guessing FX won't be going after that low end market. This will be an enthusiast D750 level FX mirrorless. Mirrorless is where they'll need to get mass market numbers, so the pricing must be competitive.

Once those are in place they can start looking at the D5/D500 as high performance pro versions for mirrorless. I get the feeling they'll keep DSLR's in the lineup, but iterate following the mirrorless tech eventually.

Late night. Maybe I'm just dreaming....

vtc2002

@KnockKnock Pretty lucid thoughts if you are dreaming.
Nikon's statement that they are going to focus on high end and mirrorless cameras is pretty vague and only time will tell. I am not sure if I see a market for the DX mirrorless camera. If Nikon plans to be in that market space I would have thought they would have upgraded the Nikon 1 series to DX format rather than taking a DX format camera and ripping the guts out and engineering a solution.

@donaldejose
I agree. If they mirrorless offering is spectacular Nikon will have to up their DSLR offerings to keep them relevant. Which in the end will be a good thing for those that want to continue to use the DSLR format.
If they were to merge the V 1 line and the 3XXX and the 5XXX series into a mirrorless camera offering that would be interesting.
The F mount is going to be the biggest issue for Nikon to overcome in the mirrorless camera if they decide to use it and not develop separate mirrorless lenses. Until the dust settles investing in additional F mount lenses is very risky and borderline foolish.

retread

@donaldejose
I agree. If they mirrorless offering is spectacular Nikon will have to up their DSLR offerings to keep them relevant. Which in the end will be a good thing for those that want to continue to use the DSLR format.
If they were to merge the V 1 line and the 3XXX and the 5XXX series into a mirrorless camera offering that would be interesting.
The F mount is going to be the biggest issue for Nikon to overcome in the mirrorless camera if they decide to use it and not develop separate mirrorless lenses. Until the dust settles investing in additional F mount lenses is very risky and borderline foolish.

If the mirrorless does not use the F mount I will not be going that way. I can't afford to get all new lenses and really am happy with the DSLR offerings.

Sports

vtc2002 said:

The F mount is going to be the biggest issue for Nikon to overcome in the mirrorless camera ...

True. Any camera manufacturer would love to start from scratch, and get rid of all bindings to support old "crap", but at the same time, supporting old lenses is Nikon's most important asset. What to do??
I think they should keep the F-mount for their mirrorless, add more contacts to provide 2017-functionality, and accept that lense + camera cannot become tiny.
But in addition, build a couple of fixed lense cameras that really kick tinyness-arse. Same controls and features etc. as the mirrorless to get development costs down, just smaller.

Capt_Spaulding

It would be nice if they would take pains to ensure that any new lenses (and all current lens models) are fully backward compatible with most to all of their extant DSLR offerings.

Andrewz

@donaldejose I don't think the replacement for the D750 should be mirrorless, why hamstring the new mirrorless by tying it to an older DSLR design. The new mirrorless should be completely new camera.

It regards to the F mount, the mirrorless will have to have a whole new line of lenses. It all about flange to sensor depth. Nikon F mount has one of he largest depths. You need new lenses to take advantage to the mirrorless design. On an up side Nikon should have an adapter available at the launch of a new camera

vtc2002

If the adapter doesn't impact performance that would be great. I have a lot of Nikon lenses that i would like to keep using. Do you think one adapter would work for all the different variation of Nikon lenses, i.e. AI-s, D, G and E? Seems like they would need different ones but I don't know enough about the different lenses and how the adapter would interface with them to say one way or the other. I think Nikon would need to offer them free of charge to existing Nikon lens owners or they will have to be really cheap. I have never been a big fan of Tele converters or other things been the lens and the sensors but the adapter may force my hand.

DaveyJ

The recently posted D750 cost comparison and weights makes the D750 successor look pretty tempting. If it has technology like the D7500 touch screen I may get one. The comparison with Sony Mirrorless I see, indicates I would undoubtedly take the D750 update way over mirrorless. Just where you people are that see Sony mirrorless in the field I do not know. Sure isn't where I have been. I agree with Andrew the Nikon Milrrorless should,be new stuff, not just retrofit. Also I must comment on Donald DeJose's a mirrorless camera with all that a DSLR camera is.......I owned a fortune in cameras, and mirrorless is hardly an improvement over DSLR, just the opposite. The D750 has been a masterpiece. The verdict on Nikon Mirrorless after Nikon 1 is still more of a question than an answer.

The mirrorless should in my very uninformed opinion be F Mount.

snakebunk

My wild guesses:
* Mirrorless will use a new mount.
* Mirrorless will possibly have a larger sensor than fx (like Fuji GFX).
* There will be an adapter for f mount lenses, at least from version E with electronic aperture.
* There will not be a direct replacement for the D750, but maybe one more version of a less expensive fx camera, maybe D650.

My big question:
* Will the new mount use encryption to prevent third party lenses or will it be an open standard?

Sports

snakebunk said:

My big question:
* Will the new mount use encryption to prevent third party lenses or will it be an open standard?

Nikon would love to keep the internals secret, but would they look good with all the important lens suppliers adding dozens of excellent lenses for Sony FE mount, while Nikon themselves would announce just two or three a year for their new mount?

At least, Nikon definitely need to make f-mount lenses work. Why would we buy the new mirrorless if our lenses stop working?

snakebunk

It would be so cool if Nikon made a new mount totally open. It would really bring customers that love Sigma and Tamron. Personally, since I mostly own Sigma lenses I would hesitate to buy into a new mount until I knew it would be supported by Sigma.

DaveyJ

There will be an updated D750. Sales relative to all their other line up,make that crystal,clear. The rating on the D750 has been really excellent. The larger than FX sensor on this upcoming mirrorless does not seem likely given Nikon's track record. I would also comment that Nikon makes cameras fairly intentionally to use with their lenses. THEY know their is a tremnedous number of Nikkor lenses out their, mostly F Mount. Other than a really wide lens cap a F Mount mirrorless would work quite well. But mainly I would predict that Nikon in NO WAY is going to drop the D700, 750 line. It is too successful, has too great a recent high rating and expert reviews. And to add to the D750 Update probability, the D750 is extremely efficient, light, a great consumer deal,etc., shootouts with mirrorless cameras have come out relatively sound in favor the D750. Lighter, faster, lower price. So,those who count the D750 as the FF DSLR lowest price, best deal, are going to get their wish.

Nikon's mirrorless forecasts indicate that will a game changer. Mostly though mirrorless sales will,be to established users. D750 has had a strong history of being many photographers first full frame DSLR camera, and they give it almost invariably five stars. If D7500 technology gets put in the D750 successor, the camera should truly excellent!

Gloor

Any update on this, please? Now that the D850 is out for a while, when do you think D760 will show up?

spraynpray

Possibly soon if the post on the blog has any basis in fact. Looks like an incremental upgrade from what I can see.

PB_PM

Chance as it's just going to be another 24MP sensor camera with the same old 51 point AF, likely going down to one SD card slot (like the D7500 did) and have snapbridge. Hardly even an upgrade at all, more like a downgrade.

donaldejose

Well . . . . . maybe a new 24mp BSI sensor . . . . maybe new image processing giving it an expanded native ISO range . . . maybe more dynamic range and lower base ISO . . ?

WestEndFoto

You might want to read Thom’s recent review of the D7500. He does see it as a downgrade from the D7200 and his logic seems sound.

donaldejose

Nikon created the D500 to replace the D7xxx series as the top (professonal luse body) of the DX line. I was saddened by the D7500 losing a second SD slot and no battery grip. I wouldn't buy it for that reason alone. That said, I have never had an SD card failure so perhaps I am foolish thinking a second SD is a necessity. Perhaps Nikon felt people professionally using a DX body should now use the D500 which has a second card slot. If Nikon feels likewise about the D7xx line we may see as similar "downgrade" (i.e. missing a second SD card and no battery grip) for the D760. "But it's not as if the D7500 went backwards. I'll say this several times in this review: the D7500 is clearly a D5-generation camera. By that I mean we get things like an EXPEED5 processor and image sensor that can do 4K video and expand the buffer, a new shutter that provides 25% faster frame rates (8 fps max), a tilting touchscreen LCD (below), a better and faster metering sensor, a new internal frame design that's more robust (coupled with some better weather sealing), electronic first curtain shutter, and more." and "if you give me a choice of a D7200 or D7500, I'll pick the D7500 every time. The sum of the parts actually make for a better camera." "The new shutter in the D7500 coupled with the sensor give us 8 fps without any need of battery boost, cropping, or other gimmick." "the D7500 is a better camera than the D7200." Thom Hogan. I would hope Nikon would follow Sony's lead with the new A7 III and NOT deliberately remove features. Maybe it doesn't need a battery grip if it shoots 8 fps and 1000 exposures without one. But a second SD slot sure wouldn't have cost much and would add insurance. Plus, I like to shoot RAW to one card and small or medium jpeg to the other for quicker use in many situations.

mhedges

WestEndFoto said:

You might want to read Thom’s recent review of the D7500. He does see it as a downgrade from the D7200 and his logic seems sound.

Should this read doesn’t instead of does? Because I thought the review said the 7500 was better, although not dramatically so.

WestEndFoto

mhedges said:

WestEndFoto said:

You might want to read Thom’s recent review of the D7500. He does see it as a downgrade from the D7200 and his logic seems sound.

Should this read doesn’t instead of does? Because I thought the review said the 7500 was better, although not dramatically so.

My apologies. You are correct.

spraynpray

IMHO it depends what you want to do with it. If your useage is more heavily in the direction of the D7500's strengths, then the D7500 is better, but if it is more in the direction of the D7200's strengths (like mine probably is), then the D7200 is the better body.