Transition from F to Z (TFFTZ)

WestEndFoto

TC88, AF is not as far behind as you think in my view. Sony does not have a monopoly on sensors, just a market leader position which they will lose if they abuse it. And I support the XQD decision provided they have two cards in a Z8 or Z9.

And Sony is handicapped with their small mount. That means it will be harder to design lenses that compete with Canon and Nikon.

WestEndFoto

Capt_Spaulding, that is a reasonable view I think. I do not know when I will make the jump. I just know that I will and have a rough idea of the strategy.

FreezeAction

With the 3 Nikon bodies that remain in my stable I don't want to leave Nikon but Nikon will have to be loyal to those who think like I do also. Canon just made a major Statement of support for their DX users with the introduction of their new 90D that is not a D500 by any means but it is a powerhouse at a reasonable price. Panasonic with the L mount offering with mirrorless and reasonable priced Sigma Art lenses for it with pixel shift technology is here and now. Sony has it all too. It seems to me Nikon came late to the party with a cap gun instead of a Winchester... Mirrorless because it is mirrorless means nothing to me for its weight as 95% of what I now shoot and have for some time is at least supported from a monopod. I still trust a remote release and a good tripod much more than VR or IS or what ever. Once I can analyze a 187MP file from Panasonic and a 240MP file from Sony I will have a better sense of direction for myself. As far as weight goes all I need to do is pull out a view camera to remind me just how far good DSLRs have come. I've had one day out in the last year that an in body anti shake system would have been of use. Shooting from a drifting boat it might have been a plus. The truth is Panasonic and Sony are now putting the most desired technology for my use into mirrorless bodies. That same technology has come at an extreme price in MF for years. So extreme there would never have been a ROI for me with what I like to do. It does seem to me that bean counters and tech engineers at Nikon are wandering in the wilderness and have their different encampments and aren't on speaking terms. Why else would it drag on and on and on. Even Sigma with their fine ART series of lenses have paid more attention to Canon, Sony, and the L consortium more respect than Nikon. Once you know you are living on borrowed time patience runs thin with bean counters that drag a segment of the industry down. I imagine I'm not the only one who loves to shoot and being well into their 70's that are most impatient with Nikon at this point. I'm like the rancher that bought a special "Bull". It's not the special bull he wanted it was the profitable special "Calves" he took to market he invested in that paid for the cost of the Bull. Some days maybe I'm just full of "Bull" but for the last 45 years I've watched the art of photography move forward and right now I don't want to see it stop on my watch. I believe there is a better than a 50/50 chance I will never need a S lens. My only home for being a one brand shooter until I fire that last frame off is that Nikon will market a Sony-Panasonic equivalent instead of resting on its past achievements. In the meantime I think I'll take a nap and sleep on it.

donaldejose

TC88. Yes, Sony is ahead, especially with the A9. But a year from now it may be different. Perhaps I am a fool to keep loving my first love (Nikon and wife) as she ages and some other young chick has a few better features. But those features (Nikon and wife) are not of key or essential importance to me. If they were I would switch (Nikon and wife).

PB_PM

WestEndFoto said:

TC88, AF is not as far behind as you think in my view. Sony does not have a monopoly on sensors, just a market leader position which they will lose if they abuse it. And I support the XQD decision provided they have two cards in a Z8 or Z9.



And Sony is handicapped with their small mount. That means it will be harder to design lenses that compete with Canon and Nikon.

Nikon executives seem to think they are going to somehow transition Nikon into a Leica like luxury brand, which IMO they'll never pull off. The way the company is doing business in a few years Nikon will join the likes of Olympus and Ricoh/Pentax in virtual obscurity. Not because they cannot make good cameras and lenses, but because they just don't get the market anymore. There is a good reason that they've lost over 15% market share in the last 7 years. You can argue all you want, but the facts speak for themselves.

By choosing XQD across the line Nikon is saying, these camera is not for general consumers, if you are one don't bother. CF cards, once the only game in town for high end cameras, had a high enough premium over SD cards, but the premium for XQD makes that look good. I doubt CF Fast will be much better. Sony wisely chose to go with SD cards, which means if you don't need a super fast card you can still use the camera with inexpensive cards, not so with XQD and CF Fast. .

tc88

@donaldejose, yes, your point is well taken. I can conceivably see myself still using D850 as the main camera 5 years down the road. So I'm certainly not in a hurry. But as hypothetical question, if I were to buy a mirrorless camera today, I consider myself to be a free agent. Nikon had been given a chance by its users in waiting for Z6/Z7, and in my opinion, they failed and the products are not competitive either tech or value wise. While we will see what Z8/Z9/Z5 will offer next, i wouldn't be surprised that they make another bonehead blunder somewhere. Meanwhile Sony's A7r4 just set a new bar, and they are coming out with A9ii soon. It will be a miracle for Nikon to just match those in their next products. Considering that Nikon's road goes through Sony now, and their emphasis on short term financial numbers, I think they are resigned to being number 3. As such, I certainly want to think carefully in investing future money into it.

tc88

@PB_PM, agree, it's my impression too that Nikon is trying to be Leica and forget about the market share. However, the issue of such an approach is that while Sony won't bother that niche for now, when the market shrinks enough, there is no barrier to prevent them attack that part of the market too.

Also regarding XQD, in my opinion, it's purely a bean counter decision. They must have got some kind of rebate on license fees, and also can cut a few dollars on on board memory. Sony A7r4 shoots 10fps for 7 seconds. A9 shoots 20fps. Both uses SD only. That's enough evidence to say XQD is not required performance wise currently, certainly not for a non sport camera like Z7/Z6. However, by using XQD, they just shifted the cost from camera maker to users, the overall cost of using XQD actually goes up substantially. Thus my conclusion that they are full of bean counters, but no real business people.

BVS

tc88 said:

Also regarding XQD, in my opinion, it's purely a bean counter decision. They must have got some kind of rebate on license fees, and also can cut a few dollars on on board memory. Sony A7r4 shoots 10fps for 7 seconds. A9 shoots 20fps. Both uses SD only. That's enough evidence to say XQD is not required performance wise currently, certainly not for a non sport camera like Z7/Z6. However, by using XQD, they just shifted the cost from camera maker to users, the overall cost of using XQD actually goes up substantially. Thus my conclusion that they are full of bean counters, but no real business people.

Do you know how long it takes the A9 to clear a full buffer? I believe it's around 36 seconds, and iirc the camera is locked up while it clears. Plus, to even get that speed you need top of the line UHS II cards which cost as much as XQD.

Nikon is basically saying that's not good enough. All the Nikon cameras that use XQD clear their buffers almost immediately and you're never stuck waiting for the camera. As fast as XQD is though, in the upcoming era of 100MP cameras, RAW video, and 8K video even that won't be fast enough. Nikon surely knew that CFexpress would be backwards compatible with XQD and decided to invest in the future sooner. 8 lane CFexpress cards will be able to reach speeds approaching 8GB/s which should be fast enough for the foreseeable future.

Maybe Sony did give them a deal. Who knows. But in the long run I believe the switch will be beneficial. Also, it's still possible that Nikon may used SD cards in lower end cameras, or as a second slot in higher end ones. We'll have to wait as see what the future holds.

ggbutcher

I chase dynamic range, and had started to consider a D750 when the Z7/Z6 came out. The Z6 won me over with the promise of the new lens system, and the 24-70/4 kit lens does not disappoint.

I'm getting good ETTR in most situations with highlight-weighted matrix metering and +1.0EV. I did blow out a window in today's anniversary portrait shots, but I'm still figuring out the heuristics for using the HWM/EV approach to ETTR.... I'm a very happy camper with the Z6 as-is.

donaldejose

I too like the Z6 and the S lenses. But I am not trying to shoot sports or landscapes. Just general portraits which will never be enlarged to even poster size. Apparently, at least some wedding photographers find the Z6 sufficient.




For landscapes the Z7 would be better and for sports or weddings a two card slot Z8 or Z9 would be better. They will come; as will a cheap DX sensor Z body. I suspect that a year from now we will be having a very different discussion because of the new lenses and bodies which will be out by then.

tc88

(1) I find it hard to believe that a camera is locked up while clearing up buffer. I did some search, it only disables your access to menus, you can certainly keep on taking pictures.

(2) I challenge Z6/Z7 users to make claims that they would otherwise miss shots if the buffer didn't clear fast enough. Certainly with the AF capabilities of those cameras, they wouldn't be keeping on firing off long bursts right after another. I take BIF pictures with D850 regularly, and even with UHS-I SD card (though the extreme pro version), I don't worry about the buffer clearing. There is plenty of time between bursts. Even taking airshows, where I typically put on 4k pictures a day, I'm not hampered by the buffer clearing. You can certainly take more pictures if you have to even if it's not fully cleared. But imagine how much 8k pictures over a weekend on XQD will cost.

(3) If people are willing to spend the money on XQD (like WEF ), they then want 2 card slots in that case. Having a single XQD card slot puts the camera in no man's land. It's not good enough for the money is no concern crowd, it's also not good enough for the value proposition crowd. That's why it's a serious blunder.

(4) While CFexpress may be backwards compatible, that doesn't mean XQD is forward compatible. Let's say if I bought XQD for a Z camera, what if one day I don't have the camera anymore? What do I do with the XQD? Even if I buy UHS-II (which is debatable on its need), it can certainly be used in other devices. It's not necessarily the better standard wins, the usage base is the dominant factor, and even CFexpress is not a given to win the standard war. Betamax is in almost every business text book. Looks that Sony has learned the lesson while Nikon thinks it can beat the flow.

mhedges

I honestly can't believe people are still arguing for SD these days. SD sucks. I think putting SD in the A7R4 was a big mistake. 130 mb raw files at 10 FPS? I pity the fool that puts a slow SD in there. And you know plenty of people will.

There are lots of technical and business reasons to move away from SD. SD was good back in it's day. But it's time for something better.

As far as the transition to luxury brand - clearly the entire ILC market is moving more upmarket as phones devour the lower end. All the companies are going that way. Look at Canon - sure they have a cheap shitbox FF mirrorless body, but look at their lenses. I think there are three lenses under $2000?

donaldejose

Apparently only a software update is needed to change a body from XQD to CF Express. But I don't know how far back this software update will go. Likely, back to the D500 and D850 and D5 and Z6 and Z7 which will give those bodies "new life" but perhaps not back to the D800 and D810. As with all gear, used XQD cards can be sold on ebay for those who are still using them. We will have to wait until it is out to see how useful or important it is. Supposedly, the buffer will be unlimited because the camera writes to the card so fast your shooting won't slow down until the card is full. Some sports shooters may feel this is a very important feature to them. The best advantage SD has for me is smaller size so you can get two SD slots into a smaller body or one SD card into a very tiny body.

WestEndFoto

Agreed MHedges. I ran into several instances in the last month where my buffer filled because the top of the line SD, which cost the same as the top of the line XQD, was too slow. I have decided that I will never buy another camera with an SD card.

Yes, Nikon is moving upmarket. So is Canon. So did Sony, though they are paying some attention to the mid-range now that they have established themselves. But to say they are becoming Leica is a gross misrepresentation. Nikon has always been a little better than Canon and needs to stay that way. Sony is not really a threat in the long term as most of their few current advantages are ephemeral and their big disadvantage is unfixable.

WestEndFoto

TC88, there is a barrier to Sony attacking the high end. It is there lens mount. It is not insurmountable, but it means that lenses of equivalent quality / weight to Canon and Nikon will cost more.

This is becoming apparent as Canon and Nikon introduce more lenses. Everyone is so far a home run.

tc88

@mhedges, I'm not against a new standard. However, for something at 4x the speed, but costs more than 4x, it's not necessarily a better product. Maybe if someone uses 32gb, the price is less an issue. But then it only holds 200 pictures at 130M a piece, and won't hold many bursts anyway. We can disagree on who made the right business decisions. But Sony's market share is increasing while Nikon keeps on decreasing.

@donaldejose, I think the firmware update allows the cameras to use CFexpress cards. But it won't help the existing XQD cards to be used in CFexpress slots. And there is still the question regarding how accepted CFexpress will be which will take years to find out.

WestEndFoto

Just reread Thom’s review of the 50 1.8S. In summary:

Otus like quality. Better than the Sigma Art across the frame. Note that the Sigma is heavier, is more expensive and there are numerous credible reports of auto-focus issues.

Thom said it was a “bargain lens”.

tc88

@WestEndFoto, I agree on Sony's mount limitation. That was a serious concern a few years ago. However, over the last few years, they have put out highly regarded lens. So the limitation may be overblown. Just like Nikon's F-mount. It's supposed to be disadvantageous, but Nikon seems to be doing ok lens design wise.

On the other hand, Sony's sensor manufacturing is a monopoly. A lot of the AF capability comes from the sensor design, (A9 is a special chip). And they can certainly choke off supplying/manufacturing for Nikon or make limitations on what chips are available. At this point, I consider sensor is the key factor, since they have pretty much already built out the lens offerings. Until TowerJazz does something significant which is a big if, I wouldn't bet against Sony.

PB_PM

WestEndFoto said:

Thom said it was a “bargain lens”.

One persons bargain is another persons ripoff.

WestEndFoto said:

"Yes, Nikon is moving upmarket..." ... But to say they are becoming Leica is a gross misrepresentation."

Is it, when the CEO has basically said as much? If Nikon doesn't want me as a customer that's there loss not mine. I've got other more important thing to buy than overpriced under-performing cameras, when compared dollar for dollar to the competition. If I am going to spend $2500-$4000 it had better be the best of the best in that class, and if it isn't I won't even consider that camera.

snakebunk

WestEndFoto said:

Just reread Thom’s review of the 50 1.8S. In summary:



Otus like quality. Better than the Sigma Art across the frame. Note that the Sigma is heavier, is more expensive and there are numerous credible reports of auto-focus issues.



Thom said it was a “bargain lens”.

Please also note that the Sigma lens is one stop faster (1.4), which of course makes it heavier. Also note that it is only slightly more expensive than the 50/1.8S and that there are numerous credible reports of auto-focus working just as good as on any Nikon lens.

snakebunk

My transition to mirrorless:
1. Continue with current F-mount system until it stops working or there are mirrorless systems that give me substantial improvments that are worth the money.
2. Choose the mirrorless system to use.
3. Buy a camera and a long prime lens (if I can't continue to use my Sigma 500/4) for the new system.

I think it is smart to not rush into a new system if you don't have to. For example I have hopes that the Z mount will have better support for wildlife photography in the future. I also think that some companies will be winners while others will vanish. But if I had to choose right now I think these are my top mirrorless mount candidates:

1. E mount. Sony has by far the best lenses for wildlife (400/2.8, 600/4 and several tele zooms), and Sigma has pretty good suppport for the E mount. Sony cameras seem to be clear winners when it comes to auto focus.
2. L mount. The Panasonic cameras are big and rugged and great in every way except auto focus (which is a big negative). I will probably have the possibility to change the mount of my Sigma 500/4 to L mount.
3. Z mount. No long prime lenses, not even in the roadmap. No vertical grip. Can use my Sigma 500/4 with an adapter.

donaldejose

" Z mount. No long prime lenses, not even in the roadmap. No vertical grip." Sorry, I disagree. The vertical grip and two card slot body will soon be out and Nikon has adopted the new feature upgrades with free software path (such as eye focus) so existing bodies should improve as new software is developed. As far a long prime lenses go; all existing Nikon primes work so Nikon has far more long lenses than E and L mount. Is there any problem with the F to Z adapter when using a long Nikon prime? Are the existing Nikon long primes inferior? I think not. My guess is that by the time you reach your Number 2 point (Choose the mirrorless system to use) your ranking of systems will be different because the available products will be different. But no one can criticize anyone for selecting the system which best fits their needs. So if Sony is best for you, more power to you.

snakebunk

@donaldejose: I agree with what you are saying but just let me add some comments on your questions.

Is there any problem with the F to Z adapter when using a long Nikon prime? – One concern I have is that I often use a tele converter and I am afraid that it will be one thing too many (as in not super tight) if I also use an adapter. Also, if I invest in a new mount I like to see long prime lenses for that mount, otherwise I am not sure about the commitment to wildlife photography.

Are the existing Nikon long primes inferior? – I wouldn't say inferior but right now I think Nikon is falling behind. Sony and Canon have come out with new super light 400/2.8 and 600/4 lenses while Nikon still has not completed the E series.

WestEndFoto

snakebunk said:

WestEndFoto said:

Just reread Thom’s review of the 50 1.8S. In summary:



Otus like quality. Better than the Sigma Art across the frame. Note that the Sigma is heavier, is more expensive and there are numerous credible reports of auto-focus issues.



Thom said it was a “bargain lens”.

Please also note that the Sigma lens is one stop faster (1.4), which of course makes it heavier. Also note that it is only slightly more expensive than the 50/1.8S and that there are numerous credible reports of auto-focus working just as good as on any Nikon lens.

Sorry, I didn't make that point very well. You really want to have 1.4 badly to sacrifice all of that, especially the optical performance.

mhedges

tc88 said:

@mhedges, I'm not against a new standard. However, for something at 4x the speed, but costs more than 4x, it's not necessarily a better product. Maybe if someone uses 32gb, the price is less an issue. But then it only holds 200 pictures at 130M a piece, and won't hold many bursts anyway. We can disagree on who made the right business decisions. But Sony's market share is increasing while Nikon keeps on decreasing.

@donaldejose, I think the firmware update allows the cameras to use CFexpress cards. But it won't help the existing XQD cards to be used in CFexpress slots. And there is still the question regarding how accepted CFexpress will be which will take years to find out.

Well unfortunately price has never scaled linearly with performance for anything. There's always a premium for it. Just ask car enthusiasts about it.

I'm pretty sure most CFexpress slots will also be XQD compatible. At least for the first several years. I don't think camera manufacturers will want to deal with complaints when people put physically compatible cards in but find out they don't work.

PB_PM said:

One persons bargain is another persons ripoff.

Is it, when the CEO has basically said as much? If Nikon doesn't want me as a customer that's there loss not mine. I've got other more important thing to buy than overpriced under-performing cameras, when compared dollar for dollar to the competition. If I am going to spend $2500-$4000 it had better be the best of the best in that class, and if it isn't I won't even consider that camera.

Man you never miss a chance to crap on this system do you?