Last days of the DSLR?

tiCreativeMediatiCreativeMedia Posts: 81Member
edited December 2013 in D90/D7x00
D7100, 35mm 1:1.8G, 10-24mm f/3.5-4.5G ED AF-S DX, 24-70mm f/2.8G ED, 70-200mm f/2.8G ED VR II, AF-S VR Micro-Nikkor 105mm f/2.8G IF-ED
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Comments

  • PhotobugPhotobug Posts: 5,369Member
    Nope did not see this one, thanks for sharing. From my perspective, the DSLR market is not going to go away any time soon. There are just too many DSLR bodies out there. Out of the DSLR owners, a small percentage of individuals have the funds to shift to what ever is hot. The majority of users, especially entry level DSLR owners are not going to jump ship because of a mirrowless camera or as some would say, the thing of the month.

    Long live the DSLR.
    D750 & D7100 | 24-70 F2.8 G AF-S ED, 70-200 F2.8 AF VR, TC-14E III, TC-1.7EII, 35 F2 AF D, 50mm F1.8G, 105mm G AF-S VR | Backup & Wife's Gear: D5500 & Sony HX50V | 18-140 AF-S ED VR DX, 55-300 AF-S G VR DX |
    |SB-800, Amaran Halo LED Ring light | MB-D16 grip| Gitzo GT3541 + RRS BH-55LR, Gitzo GM2942 + Sirui L-10 | RRS gear | Lowepro, ThinkTank, & Hoodman gear | BosStrap | Vello Freewave Plus wireless Remote, Leica Lens Cleaning Cloth |
  • PB_PMPB_PM Posts: 4,378Member
    The latest CIPA numbers for November show DSLR sales are up. Go figure.
    If I take a good photo it's not my camera's fault.
  • Golf007sdGolf007sd Posts: 2,840Moderator
    DSLR's are going to around for a long time. Yet, I welcome new tech.
    D4 & D7000 | Nikon Holy Trinity Set + 105 2.8 Mico + 200 F2 VR II | 300 2.8G VR II, 10.5 Fish-eye, 24 & 50 1.4G, 35 & 85 1.8G, 18-200 3.5-5.6 VR I SB-400 & 700 | TC 1.4E III, 1.7 & 2.0E III, 1.7 | Sigma 35 & 50 1.4 DG HSM | RRS Ballhead & Tripods Gear | Gitzo Monopod | Lowepro Gear | HDR via Promote Control System |
  • SportsSports Posts: 365Member
    A dedicated phase-detection auto-focus unit will in theory always be better than on-sensor-phase-detection. And some people may prefer an OVF no matter how good an EVF becomes. So all other things being equal, a mirrorless cannot beat a DSLR on all aspects. On many, yes, but not all.
    Unless .... Nikon and Canon stops innovating (and Pentax). If they focus too much on video and consumer stuff, then sooner rather than later, existing or new mirrorless companies will take over the world. Electronics and computers are advancing so fast that even if yesterday's DSLR tech beats today's mirrorless, then it has no chance against tomorrow's or the next day's.
    Mirrorless is cheaper, too, than DSLR when mass produced.
    Just my opinion. It's not tech itself. It's decided 100% by Canikon's willingness to invest in DSLR.
    D300, J1
    Sigma 70-200/2.8, 105/2.8
    Nikon 50/1.4G, 18-200, 80-400G
    1 10-30, 30-110
  • sevencrossingsevencrossing Posts: 2,800Member
    Not too sure why , what is clearly advert for Sony, is here on NRF
    RIP Niko you are missed
  • henrik1963henrik1963 Posts: 561Member
    Innovating in the camera world means solving real world problems for photographers.

    When mirror less cameras can bring something new and useful to photographers they will consider moving to mirror less cameras. Right now mirror less cameras are lagging behind DSLRs. The only thing mirror less cameras can do better right now is being smaller and lighter than DSLRs.

    Maybe Canon and Nikon is making DSLRs because that is the best tech right now. Sonys A7r is not a better camera than a Nikon D800.

  • MsmotoMsmoto Posts: 5,396Moderator
    The DSLR has a huge problem. The mirror. And getting it out of the way for each shot is what limits the functionality for action. As I have said on the forum in numerous areas, once the AF technology in the sensor is perfected, possibly even an electronic shutter with no mechanical parts, we will see a professional camera which will mean the end of the current pro cameras.

    It seems simple, if I can shoot 20 FPS, have the exact same view in the finder window I see now, and have no shutter (mirror) noise, vibration, why would I use anything else?

    I believe the problem lies in two areas. One is the perfecting the technical aspects of what I have described. The other is the marketing strategies of Canon and Nikon.

    Having said all this, I suspect the two big players will not be giving up the DSLR anytime soon. I see this somewhat like the SLR revolution in the late '50's and Ernst Leitz sitting back and not taking action. Their camera business has never recovered. Hopefully we will see in the next year or two the professional mirrorless from both Nikon and Canon. Maybe something which will not compete with the big pro DSLR's but something which will be very attractive. I also think we will see a great improvement in wide angle lenses which no longer have to be a retro focus design.

    But, this is just my opinion, and…...
    Msmoto, mod
  • henrik1963henrik1963 Posts: 561Member
    I Think we are wrong when we asume that Nikon will not make a mirror less D800 or D4 because they fear that it will hurt Thir DSLR line. They will make pro mirrorless cameras when they can make one that is better than what they can make using a mirror box. Look at Nikon one V1 and V2. They made the best mirror less camera in that class.

    What they dont want is Canon having a super DSLR when they have a inferior mirror less camera.

    Pro mirror less cameras will come when they have solved the problems that is holding them back.
  • Golf007sdGolf007sd Posts: 2,840Moderator
    @henrik1963: I agree. Well put.
    D4 & D7000 | Nikon Holy Trinity Set + 105 2.8 Mico + 200 F2 VR II | 300 2.8G VR II, 10.5 Fish-eye, 24 & 50 1.4G, 35 & 85 1.8G, 18-200 3.5-5.6 VR I SB-400 & 700 | TC 1.4E III, 1.7 & 2.0E III, 1.7 | Sigma 35 & 50 1.4 DG HSM | RRS Ballhead & Tripods Gear | Gitzo Monopod | Lowepro Gear | HDR via Promote Control System |
  • kyoshinikonkyoshinikon Posts: 411Member
    have you guys seen this?
    MAN, I hope my lenses work with whatever Nikon comes out with next!!!
    Trust me It will lol! Nikon has always been the most traditional out of the big 5 when they don't innovate...

    I am on the fence with this one. I see DSLR's definitely being mainstream up until lets say 2017. That is not far ahead at all. Ive used the a77 and while it is far from perfect, I immensely enjoyed the experience much more than the 7D in part because it did what I wanted it to. While they are still few, some pros are already sold on the sony system. In some/many ways it just works better. Ofr course many of us serious photographers love our big cameras and optical viewfinders and we are a market that is not going to go soon. Soccer moms on the other hand is just about hitting its peak and there is only one way to go from there... Down.

    If nikon or especially canon (canuts seem to be more automated in their way or working and thinking) came out with a mirrorless pro body I'm sure there is already enough of a market for it. While I don't think the article is spot on it is pretty close. Look at how quickly the point and shoot is dying. Give that until 2017. By 2017 I am going to assume that Nikon will go from having 25 point and shoots to only 5 or 8 models. Remember Kodak was a giant and they were the first to embrace digital... Where are they now? If you cannot embrace the market you will die.

    While I doubt the DSLR will ever die (at least in the next 50 years) I foresee it going the way of the F5/f100/N80 where it is reduced to 3 lines probably like it started. A mid in the D70range a bottom pro Mix of D100/D700/D800 range and a Fx Pro. Many of us still love our big cameras and optical viewfinders and nikon will still continue to support us in that.

    Im guessing this transition will be in the Mid 2020's but it could bee sooner.


    “To photograph is to hold one’s breath, when all faculties converge to capture fleeting reality. It’s at that precise moment that mastering an image becomes a great physical and intellectual joy.” - Bresson
  • bigeaterbigeater Posts: 36Member
    After the DCS 14, Kodak never again put out a decent camera, :( their offerings were always second or third rate, almost like someone in the executive suite was actively working to make sure that digital couldn't compete with film.
    Luckily, Nikon doesn't seem as suicidal as Kodak was. Just slow.
    I assume that Nikon will magically pop out with a mirrorless full frame when their biggest customers (whoever they are) begin demanding them.
    And as for focus speed, one thing about technology is that whatever you think is true--like phase detection being faster than contrast detection--is not going to stay true for very long. I'm willing to bet that both Nikon and Canon as well as the optical engineering department at the Institute of Industrial Science at Tokyo U have rooms full of gifted engineers working feverishly on contrast detection auto focus. It's only a matter of time before it becomes the faster system.
    In the end, all I care about is whether these mythical mirrorless Nikons will support CLS and whether I can still use my 24-70. Everything else is just noise.
  • spraynprayspraynpray Posts: 6,432Moderator
    "Luckily, Nikon doesn't seem as suicidal as Kodak was. Just slow."

    Slow by comparison to the modern A.D.D. perhaps, but I'd rather call them thorough. :P
    Always learning.
  • Not last days, but last years. Till that time I have my D600, 24-70mm f/2.8, 70-200mm f/2.8 VRII, 50mm f/1.8, the Sigma 35mm will come soon and I can do what I want. I am always - here and now -, - there and then - has no meaning for me, waiting slows me down, and that is not what I want on my age. :)
    Those who say it can't be done, should not interrupt those doing it!
  • TaoTeJaredTaoTeJared Posts: 1,306Member
    edited December 2013
    I hate articles like these - written by people who believe they are the "the man of the moment" but just show that they are nothing more than a side show at a circus.

    What is in a Name?
    DSLR is just a name - subtract that and it is just a tool that makes photographs. In my mind, a "DSLR" has just became a pseudonym for a camera's body design, not the tech.
    DSLR = A body that focuses fast, takes interchangeable lenses, with a built in hand grip that takes better photos than a compact.
    That is how the general public see's it but putting it into an acronym is rather difficult. Very few actually know which each letter stands for - Digital single-lens reflex. Until an acceptable name comes about, that will always be the case and this debate and idiotic articles will remain.

    What I find funny is that no one has a suitable name for "these new fangled systems" without a mirror or optical view finder. ;) ILC - interchangeable lens compact (I hate and loath that name - same thing could be said about a rangefinder which is not the same thing.) And anymore, they are getting bigger and bigger. Mirror-less system - that covers 1/2 of it, but no one is going to call it a "MS" system. DMS? Well that is already taken by the Department of Management Services, Document Management System, Direct Music Service, or my favorite, Dimethyl Sulfides in beer tasting. But in 20 years, kids will wonder why we call it Mirror-less when camera's never had a mirror (to their memory) to begin with.

    The only thing that is removed is the "R". I suppose DSLTEVF (Digital Single Lens Digital Transmission with Electronic Viewfinder) doesn't roll off the tongue well enough to work. I think Single Lens Digital Camera - SLDC. Or rearranged DCSL or DSLC.
    Not many use SLDC for anything.
    Other candidates:
    RGC - Really Good Camera
    DVIL - Digital View Interchangeable Lens (*Or Direct)
    SLEVF - Single Lens Electronic ViewFinder
    FLCE - Fast Lens Changing Electric viewfinder pronounced "Fleece"
    FILCHED - Fast focusing Interchangeable Lens Camera w/ Hand grip & Electronic Display - Yeah FILCHED ;) To take (something, especially something of little value) in a furtive manner. That can describe taking photos! (;

    IF and When the technology finely advances enough, all camera's will be like Sony's A7 model eventually. The issue is the quality of images, quality of metering and the quality of Auto-focus will have to surpass not just their own selves, but continuing DSLR's improvements at the same time, which will take quite a few years. And when they do, what will they be called? Better question, does anyone really care?
    Post edited by TaoTeJared on
    D800, D300, D50(ir converted), FujiX100, Canon G11, Olympus TG2. Nikon lenses - 24mm 2.8, 35mm 1.8, (5 in all)50mm, 60mm, 85mm 1.8, 105vr, 105 f2.5, 180mm 2.8, 70-200vr1, 24-120vr f4. Tokina 12-24mm, 16-28mm, 28-70mm (angenieux design), 300mm f2.8. Sigma 15mm fisheye. Voigtlander R2 (olive) & R2a, Voigt 35mm 2.5, Zeiss 50mm f/2, Leica 90mm f/4. I know I missed something...
  • MsmotoMsmoto Posts: 5,396Moderator
    edited December 2013
    The size and weight of the D4 is about right for me. And, if we see a camera without a mirror, with an electronic viewfinder, I hope the pro version is about the same shape as the D4.

    As to electronic viewfinders, IMO the technology will advance to where the image will appear identical to that seen on ground glass. Important to remember, in a DSLR is we are not seeing an optical image like in a rangefinder or monocular, but an image projected onto ground glass. I see no reason this cannot be reproduced in a manner which will appear satisfactory in all respects to what we are used to now.

    As to the name of this camera….how does Nikon G sound….. :D
    Post edited by Msmoto on
    Msmoto, mod
  • sevencrossingsevencrossing Posts: 2,800Member
    As to electronic viewfinders, IMO the technology will advance to where the image will appear identical to that seen on ground glass.
    yes this will come to pass
    but I think this thread should be renamed
    The years of DSLR are numbered



  • Vipmediastar_JZVipmediastar_JZ Posts: 1,708Member
    hows the shutter lag on those ILC's? Thats was one of the main reasons I returned the Fuji xe1 along with AF.
    Maybe its just me but I much prefer the noise of the shutter over no shutter sound.
    I picked up the V1 when they first came out. I liked the small package size but the IQ and lack of shutter sound turned me off. I believe it had an option for mechanical shutter or no mechanical. The mechanical was a little better but I returned it.

    Why I like the DSLR more is the AF-on, the view finder, the extra buttons for DOF or whatever your set them to. The flash capabilites, sync ports, sb-xxx, etc.

    I see myself with the DSLR for a while. Maybe by the time my kids are old enough for a camera I'll pick one for them and I hope they are interested in photography if not thats is fine I'll just photograph them.
  • 9viii9viii Posts: 24Member
    I like the term "Compact System Camera", it's just vague enough but not too obscure.
  • heartyfisherheartyfisher Posts: 3,181Member
    edited December 2013
    In the mean time I am looking forward to the V3 to replace my V1... My DSLR? packed up next to the SLR.. will dust it off to take some "real" photographs ;-) in the weekends .. but my V1 is with me all the time..
    Seriously considering getting the Df for my "real" photography.. but will probably stay with getting a conventional D610/D400/D800. will see how it goes when the NAS strikes ;-) other interests grabbing my attention for the moment (next purchase item .. super duper PC..) so for me the Mirrorless DSLR may indeed be my next camera .. if it comes middle of next year..

    I guess what i am saying in my roundabout way is that technically all the bits for a Mirrorless DSLR are available in the N1 V1. the V3 should add CLS and hopefully more DR and IQ and then .. all I need my DSLR for would be the High ISO and shallow DOF.. everything else is in the N1, eg. Underwater, high FPS, Video, lens compatibility .. etc.
    Post edited by heartyfisher on
    Moments of Light - D610 D7K S5pro 70-200f4 18-200 150f2.8 12-24 18-70 35-70f2.8 : C&C very welcome!
    Being a photographer is a lot like being a Christian: Some people look at you funny but do not see the amazing beauty all around them - heartyfisher.

  • kyoshinikonkyoshinikon Posts: 411Member
    Everybody who thinks mirrorless thinks of consumer cameras... Ever used an a99? It is not perfect but it is very close. A pro mirrorless body is not only possible from Nikon but inevitable.

    TaoTeJared Do you remember when all of us used to refer to electronic viewfinder cameras as "EVIL"? :D
    “To photograph is to hold one’s breath, when all faculties converge to capture fleeting reality. It’s at that precise moment that mastering an image becomes a great physical and intellectual joy.” - Bresson
  • PB_PMPB_PM Posts: 4,378Member
    Minor problem with that, the A99 is not mirrorless.
    If I take a good photo it's not my camera's fault.
  • kyoshinikonkyoshinikon Posts: 411Member
    It may not be mirror-less but the mirror is near useless. it is a glorified EVF with a mirror. I can imagine a a90 with no mirror
    “To photograph is to hold one’s breath, when all faculties converge to capture fleeting reality. It’s at that precise moment that mastering an image becomes a great physical and intellectual joy.” - Bresson
  • PB_PMPB_PM Posts: 4,378Member
    edited December 2013
    Without the mirror the phase detect auto focus on the a99 would not work, so it isn't useless. Head to head the a99 focuses way faster than the A7 (it is a mirrorless a99 for all intensive purposes), which uses a hybrid contrast/phase detect system.
    Post edited by PB_PM on
    If I take a good photo it's not my camera's fault.
  • donaldejosedonaldejose Posts: 3,387Member
    Msmoto is correct. An EVF will be better than an OVF in darker environments because it will be brighter. Mirrorless will be better than mirror because it will reduce vibration, noise and allow faster fps. Some models of such a camera will be the size of current DSLRs to allow the use of all the old lenses and controls placed/spaced where we are used to finding them. Other models of such a design will use newly designed lenses to maximize the design potential just as Nikon 1 has a special line of lenses to maximize its potential of smaller size. It will be here just as soon as all technical issues are solved and it can be built by anyone.
  • JuergenJuergen Posts: 315Member

    Maybe its just me but I much prefer the noise of the shutter over no shutter sound.
    I picked up the V1 when they first came out. I liked the small package size but the IQ and lack of shutter sound turned me off. I believe it had an option for mechanical shutter or no mechanical. The mechanical was a little better but I returned it.

    I hate shutter sound! It is just too loud, even in "quiet" mode. In my area deer are getting nervous when they hear the shutter sound from a distance as far as 200m. And nervous means, they are walking away with their heads up.

    But other than in wildlife photography, shutter sound is sexy :-)

    Jürgen
    D4, D800E, Nikon 1 J2, 600 f/4, trinity, PC-E 45, PC-E 24, 105, 50 f/1,8g, 85 f/1,4, Sigma 150-500
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