What is next for Nikon?

brownie314

Seems this past year has been about FF bodies and lenses and 1 series bodies and lenses. Will Nikon focus on DX in 2015? Or what else will come? Will a mirrorless DX or FF be next (both would probably require new lens systems)?

Photobug

Good question. Nikon has focused on full frame upgrades in the past year or so: The D4S, D810, DFx, D750, D610. We have seen some great FX zoom and prime lens introduced but still waiting on several FF lens upgrades, i.e. 300mm F4. A new flash was introduced too.

For 2015 I expect the following from Nikon:
++Improvements in customer service Hopefully they learned something about the D600.
++D7200
++D3400
++Some upgrades to DX lens such as the 17-55 F2.8
++A new wide angle DX prime lens
++Updates to universal DX lens 18-200 etc
++SB-920 flash
++Replacement to the 4804-R1

I just don't think their will be a D9300 and don't want that topic to fill up this forum when we have the D400 & D9300 forms for those discussions. BUT and it's a BIG BUT. If the new Canon 7D MKIII sells at big volumes, I would not be surprised if after January we started hearing that Nikon is working on a new top of the line DX model. An alternative, rather than build a new body from scratch (D9300) it would not surprise me if they crammed a bunch of improvements into the D7100 to compete with the Canon 7D.

A Mirrorless DX/FF body and new lens...well you never know. I bet Nikon Marketing is watching the Samsung and Sony numbers carefully. Personally it would be nice to see Nikon launch some technology improvement int his camera and not just do a Nikon version.

snakebunk

Nikon 2, a new mount for mirrorless fx cameras. Compared to the current DSLRs the cameras will be smaller, less expensive and with lots of mp and fps.

brownie314

PhotoBug - great points. I also don't think we will see a D400 (but don't want that to take over this thread). I agree that if Nikon sees the 7dmkII as a threat (which is likely) they will probably stuff the D7200 with tech (that would be great). I expect so see at least 8fps, updated AF system, a deep(er) buffer and maybe 4k (don't hold breath on that last one).

KnockKnock

Largely agree with Photobug. Maybe with these edits:

++D7200
++D3400
++Some upgrades to DX lens such as the 17-55 F2.8 (or 16-85 f/4)
++A new wide angle DX prime lens (probably pipe dream)
++Updates to universal DX lens 18-200 etc.
++SB-920 flash

Perhaps the D7200 will get the D750 treatment. Bump FPS up, improve video, add WiFi, flip screen. It won't compete at the FPS level with the 7D, but 8FPS with these added features undercutting the price of the 7D by $500 would be a good seller and satisfy all but the most fanatical of action shooters. Basically it would marginalize the 7D cross-shoppers.

spraynpray

At risk of smearing the D400 thread across here, if Nikon can market five FX's to Canon's three, how come they can't replace the D300s with a D400/9300? The differences between D3300/D5300/D7100 are really pretty incremental - the D400/9300 could be a clear jump above them.

brownie314

Any chance of a smaller, highly spec'd body (like D3300 size) with high fps, good AF module and good control layout? I think this could be an interesting body for Nikon - might quiet all the people who are moving to mirrorless for the size advantage.

Photobug

PhotoBug - great points. I also don't think we will see a D400 (but don't want that to take over this thread). I agree that if Nikon sees the 7dmkII as a threat (which is likely) they will probably stuff the D7200 with tech (that would be great). I expect so see at least 8fps, updated AF system, a deep(er) buffer and maybe 4k (don't hold breath on that last one).

Agree that the 4K is unlikely in a D7200 and those items you mentioned would be fantastic to complete with the 7D MKII.

Okay, no more on the D400

@KnockKock - I like your edits and would be happy with those new products in 2015. Excellent point about adding those features to the D7200. Love the idea of undercutting the 7D MKII. The key statement you made is really good - the D7200 with those features would meet the requirements of all but the fanatical action shooter.

@Spraynpray you made a great point so I am going to copy and paste into the D400 forum.

WestEndBoy

Largely agree with Photobug. Maybe with these edits:

++D7200
++D3400
++Some upgrades to DX lens such as the 17-55 F2.8 (or 16-85 f/4)
++A new wide angle DX prime lens (probably pipe dream)
++Updates to universal DX lens 18-200 etc.
++SB-920 flash

Perhaps the D7200 will get the D750 treatment. Bump FPS up, improve video, add WiFi, flip screen. It won't compete at the FPS level with the 7D, but 8FPS with these added features undercutting the price of the 7D by $500 would be a good seller and satisfy all but the most fanatical of action shooters. Basically it would marginalize the 7D cross-shoppers.

Short term, I agree with this, except the SB-920 will include radio trigger capability.

donaldejose

The next body Nikon releases will be a top of the line DX body (for under $2,000) or an approximately 50mp D4x ($8,000?) or D810x ($4,000?) body. It is not yet time for a new mirrorless body and lenses. There are enough FX bodies out now. It is time to focus on releasing a top of the line DX body but if a 50mp FF chip is now available it would be rather easy for Nikon to engineer the supporting hardware and software to fit it into either the D4 or the D810 body and call it an X model.

WestEndBoy

At risk of smearing the D400 thread across here, if Nikon can market five FX's to Canon's three, how come they can't replace the D300s with a D400/9300? The differences between D3300/D5300/D7100 are really pretty incremental - the D400/9300 could be a clear jump above them.

Because that is at fundamental odds (all this is an opinion) with their long-term strategy.

I think their long-term strategy is to offer FX cheaper and cheaper with the ultimate goal of launching a $500 FX D400 in less then ten years. FX sensors will then be so cheap that the D400, D830 and D7 will have the same sensor and the DSLR market will look like the SLR market of the 90s.

DX will then be discontinued.

Photobug

I think their long-term strategy is to offer FX cheaper and cheaper with the ultimate goal of launching a $500 FX D400 in less then ten years. FX sensors will then be so cheap that the D400, D830 and D7 will have the same sensor and the DSLR market will look like the SLR market of the 90s.
DX will then be discontinued.

This is very logical. With improvements in technology and higher volumes the sensor price will come down making this possible. IMHO, it's going to take 10 years to happen....so I agree with you. So for now how can they keep the DX bodies going until the lower end FF bodies are introduced?

WestEndBoy

I think so Photobug.

Sports

... D7200 ... with added features undercutting the price of the 7D by $500 would ... satisfy all but the most fanatical of action shooters.

That's true. Many would be happy. But Nikon would be selling a $1200 body instead of the $1800-$2000 body they COULD have sold.

Sports

What to expect:
Near-term ... hard to say, as Nikon have sworn to cut cost.
- But a D7200 with on-sensor phase detection auto-focus could be possible. Or will the D5400 be first to get this feature?
Long-term:
- Mirrorless FX.
Nikon has to bring FX right from the beginning, as Sony has already started that game.
And Nikon needs mirrorless for making the D6 go REALLY fast. No mirror can handle 20 fps.
Importantly, Nikon "prefers" FX, right, so why waste time developing a new DX solution?
Also, Nikon already has Nikon 1 as their small system. It would be difficult to squeeze in a DX between Nikon 1 and FX, as FX prices will keep going down.
(Well, in an emergency, a crop sensor is of course always possible as a budget option, if the system supports FX.)

retread

I would like to see a D9300 (or what ever you would like to call it) as a scaled down D810. Then use them both where there strengths are and let them be backup for each other.

I bought a D5100 awhile back to see if I would like the switch to digital. Getting mostly FX glass to use on both bodies.

KnockKnock

@Sports You know, you've got something there. DX as it is, relies on the same mount as FX, so it can't really downsize much in terms of depth. Whereas they do have a the fledgeling 1 Mount for their small stuff. This is getting to be long-term, but I can imagine the FX and 1 world. Right now, DX and FX image quality is not that far apart. Barely enough for market differentiation (arguably, maybe).

FX DSLR & Mirrorless, both using F-mount family of lenses.
1 mount, for smaller carry photography.

Hmmm. Not sure. Only thing I do know is that while I want the future to take its time in terms of my bodily degeneration - in terms of Nikon's roadmap, whatever they're planning can't happen soon enough.

Msmoto

I am of the opinion we will see a professional mirrorless camera from Nikon. And, it will either directly or with an adaptor use the "F" lenses.

The real question may be a marketing uncertainty as a lot of innovative things have been introduced, some on time, others prematurely, and of course some too late. And, Nikon does not want to mess up on what IMO is a huge change in the professional photography equipment industry. Once the electronics are fully perfected, the need for a mirror is gone. This will revolutionize high resolution photography.

WestEndBoy

What to expect:
Near-term ... hard to say, as Nikon have sworn to cut cost.
- But a D7200 with on-sensor phase detection auto-focus could be possible. Or will the D5400 be first to get this feature?
Long-term:
- Mirrorless FX.
Nikon has to bring FX right from the beginning, as Sony has already started that game.
And Nikon needs mirrorless for making the D6 go REALLY fast. No mirror can handle 20 fps.
Importantly, Nikon "prefers" FX, right, so why waste time developing a new DX solution?
Also, Nikon already has Nikon 1 as their small system. It would be difficult to squeeze in a DX between Nikon 1 and FX, as FX prices will keep going down.
(Well, in an emergency, a crop sensor is of course always possible as a budget option, if the system supports FX.)

But do you buy a D4 etc. because of FPS or nailing focus on every one of those FPS. This is a real limitation. You only get the last fps from Canon if you set it so it does not re-focus between each shot. That does not work for most action shots if they are moving towards you or away.

WestEndBoy

@Sports You know, you've got something there. DX as it is, relies on the same mount as FX, so it can't really downsize much in terms of depth. Whereas they do have a the fledgeling 1 Mount for their small stuff. This is getting to be long-term, but I can imagine the FX and 1 world. Right now, DX and FX image quality is not that far apart. Barely enough for market differentiation (arguably, maybe).

FX DSLR & Mirrorless, both using F-mount family of lenses.
1 mount, for smaller carry photography.

Hmmm. Not sure. Only thing I do know is that while I want the future to take its time in terms of my bodily degeneration - in terms of Nikon's roadmap, whatever they're planning can't happen soon enough.

FX and DX are not far apart. Hmmm......perhaps if you are comparing from the perspective of a CX camera. But my D800 blows my Coolpix A (same sensor as D7000) out of the water in my view. It is not a small difference.

manhattanboy

But my D800 blows my Coolpix A (same sensor as D7000) out of the water in my view. It is not a small difference.

I don't know about that. DX and FX have different uses. If I was standing at a point and had only one lens to shoot a distant object, my DX blows the FX out of the water because I do not have to crop in post as much. The current level of DX cameras is really at a sweet spot for this scenario. Besides that scenario, however, I agree with you that image quality is generally better across the board for FX.

Back on the topic of what's Nikon gonna do, I think they will release a 7200 and try to undercut Canon on price for the 7DMK2. That seems to be what they did for the 750 versus the 5DMK3. The rest of the stuff like mirrorless, etc. I have no idea.

BabaGanoush

Funny how this Forum has become such an echo chamber. Nikon will discontinue DX within 10 years? Not a chance if they want to stay in business. Of course, there have been companies in the past that have committed suicide by making strategic errors of such gigantic proportions. Killing DX would be one of those. Nikon, I suspect, might walk up to the edge of suicide leap, but I doubt they'd actually jump. And the reason is simple: Point #1) there are way more consumers/amateurs in the world who buy cameras than there are deep pocketed pros and serious enthusiasts, and Point #2) It's not just the camera, it's the glass. While Nikon's serious FX customers don't mind shelling out $2500+ each for 4 or even 5 BIG, HEAVY pro-level lenses, most photography hobbyists balk at that, preferring to get a SMALL, LIGHT lens or 2 at a price that's under $1K...which means they're in the market for DX gear. As long as Nikon holds off on releasing a mirror less camera of its own, the best chance they have to compete against mirror less cameras is to offer a full line of attractive DX cameras that carry the Nikon brand, which still counts for something in the marketplace (but perhaps not for much longer).

UPDATE: Let me point out that the demographics of your typical photographer is starting to change, and this is going to present as much a challenge as an opportunity for camera companies. More than ever before, women are taking up photography as a hobby, and from personal observation I'd say a lot of them prefer a DSLR. But women are not going to tote around a 3 pound pro-body camera with a 3 pound pro-quality lens attached for an entire day. They won't accept that. They want light, they want simple, and they don't want expensive.

PB_PM

Nikon will discontinue DX within 10 years? Not a chance if they want to stay in business.

People said the same thing 14 years ago about digital not replacing film.

WestEndBoy

Yes, and there is no reason that an FX can't be as small and as cheap as a D3300 and the cheapest FX glass is pretty cheap and could be made cheaper.

And then, DX will be discontinued because nobody will be buying it.

BabaGanoush

Nikon will discontinue DX within 10 years? Not a chance if they want to stay in business.

People said the same thing 14 years ago about digital not replacing film.

Irrelevant. Since that transition from film to digital, have the lenses shrunk in size and bulk?
Optics != Electronics. They are different technologies.

KnockKnock

Agree with WestEndBoy, FX will (also) get consumer-small and enthusiast-cheap.

Sony may be losing money with all their experimentation and product fragmentation, but the A7 series shows a very likely future: FX, $1500, 1 lb. It won't be long before FX sensors in small bodies (the D3300 is .95 lb) will blow away what we currently have in the D7100 (1.6 lb) at the $1200 price point. So we're not talking big and $3K for long.

Now, we may very well get mirrorless DX, but there's that F-mount thing again, and Nikon's historically very stingy with DX optimized glass. There are more 1 Mount options than DX, after much less time on the market. I could imagine a fixed-lens mirrorless DX, much like the Coolpix A with a zoom. With a good grip and viewfinder, that'd be awesome.

However, again, looking at lens families, it seems Nikon is going 1 Mount for portability and flexibility, and F-mount for full-range compatibility/flexibility. We're in an uncomfortable transition when the cheap FX option isn't quite there yet, but long-term, I'm starting to see wisdom in pushing FX down market vs pushing DX up.