What is next for Nikon?

WestEndBoy

Coolpix A with a zoom! Sacrilege! Why would you ruin one of the best primes on the market with a zoom?

In all seriousness, I see mirrorless as an option but there is really no point doing it with the F-mount. The only improvement is a narrower body and a flatter top. Assuming auto-focus can be improved to match or nearly match the SLR design (a BIG if, nobody has really come close yet), I am not sure that is enough of an advantage to discard an entirely good system (sure you can use adapters, but will pros and enthusiasts really tolerate adapters?).

I imagine a medium format mirrorless system with wider slower lenses where focus does not really matter but sharpness rules.

BabaGanoush

Yes, and there is no reason that an FX can't be as small and as cheap as a D3300 and the cheapest FX glass is pretty cheap and could be made cheaper.

Sony has released some very small FF cameras, but what about Nikon? Nikon's D810 is no A7, is it? Will you to switch to Sony if Nikon continues to plod along creating one monster sized FF camera after another like the D810? I'm not disparaging the excellent quality of the D810, not at all, only your assumption that Nikon will be part of the trend toward down-sizing. The question is: if Sony could make such a small FF camera, how come Nikon didn't beat them to it? Perhaps Nikon is stuck in the technology of the film era? Where is the corporate innovation? Did Nikon respond to the A7 with its own small FF camera? Or did it instead release the D750, which people on this forum claim is an ideal complement to the D4 and D810?

Are the high quality existing and prospective lenses for the Sony A7 significantly smaller and lighter than the best FF glass from Nikon or Canon? Maybe I've missed something in the Sony lens map, but I don't think so. Correct me if I'm wrong about that.

Then there's the economics of the business. Let me take a wild guess about how that will pan out in the next decade. Over the past decade, some of the major camera companies have lowered their manufacturing costs by taking advantage of cheap labor, moving production where they could from high labor cost countries like Japan to low cost labor countries like China and Thailand. Now there aren't many, if any, countries where the labor costs are significantly lower and could be used to significantly reduce production costs. And consider the external factors over which the camera companies have no control. As the central banks of Europe and the US start to unwind their past bond purchases, which have been used for many years to support deficit government spending, inflation will eventually rise, perhaps as high as 6, 7, or even 8% per year. This is inevitable. At an 8% rate, prices double in a decade. Therefore, I don't see camera prices coming down. They might remain steady, but more likely, I think, they will continue to rise as more advanced technology is incorporated into each new model of camera and lens. The gear will get better, I admit, but that means the price to consumers is unlikely to decrease. if good gear does not get cheaper, people may choose to trade down to cheaper gear, from DSLRs to mirror less cameras and then to smart phones. As the quality of the phone cameras/camera phones continues to improve, probably faster than the quality of DSLR cameras improves, the pricing and technology pressure on conventional camera manufacturers will be enormous.

Sports

But do you buy a D4 etc. because of FPS or nailing focus on every one of those FPS. This is a real limitation. You only get the last fps from Canon if you set it so it does not re-focus between each shot. That does not work for most action shots if they are moving towards you or away.

This Canon limitation is most likely caused by the mirror, which leaves very few milliseconds for each "focus measurement" between shots.
Mirrorless actually solves this problem by letting the camera focus almost continuously, as the focus detectors sit on the sensor itself, and are being exposd to light most of the time.

ads

As the central banks of Europe and the US start to unwind their past bond purchases, which have been used for many years to support deficit government spending, inflation will eventually rise, perhaps as high as 6, 7, or even 8% per year. This is inevitable.

Actually that's the wrong way around - bond sales (aka printing money) increase inflation, buying them back decreases prices. Central banks are required to keep inflation within a specific band so you wont see general inflation that high unless they screw up badly. (Sorry, I'm an economist...)

Its more likely cameras will follow other consumer electronics and continue decreasing in price (or gaining more features at the same price...).

ads

I reckon we'll see:
- D7200 with the upgraded group focus system, 7FPS and a modestly increased buffer, relying on price to compete with the 7DII
- D3400 simply because Nikon can't go a year without at least 1 D3XXX
- for similar reasons a new Nikon 1 J series
- price reductions on the D610, or a D620 so that Nikon can keep pushing FX cheaper and try and people running off and buying the A7

Elvishefer

If one agrees with Thom Hogan's prediction that Nikon is trending to premium priced cameras, I would think 2015 will see an iteration of the Df and the 610. I want to say there will be another FX body but that's probably my personal preference for a D4x-ish camera (the D3x is looking pretty ridiculous on the Nikon DSLR product page). If a D400/9300 is introduced to keep DX alive, it will be priced just shy of the D620(?) price point, but not by much. Also, the usual iterations of the 3300, 5300, 7100 etc.

brownie314

Looks like there are 2 discussions happening here (at least). One is about the near future and the other is about the far off future.
Near future - I think most of us agree we will see some kind of high end DX in 2015. Probably a D7200 with beefed up specs to undercut the 7Dmkii (just like Nikon did with the D7000).
Far off future - I think we will see a world dominated by 2 formats - 1" and FX. We will see 1" get so close in quality to aps-c that it will make aps-c irrelevant. And FX bodies will appear that fill every need from advanced amateur to pro - and all sizes and shapes. Of course there will still be a few odd systems out there with aps-c sensors, but they will be the odd ones.

D750newbie

Not sure if this was mentioned before, but I would take a D610 FX any day over the 7Dmkii. Seems to be very similarly priced granted the 7Dmkii is a bit faster and has the wifi...

I also think the D610 is also why Nikon will not do a 9300 or improve much more on the D7100 since you can access the FX market at that range.

brownie314

Not sure if this was mentioned before, but I would take a D610 FX any day over the 7Dmkii. Seems to be very similarly priced granted the 7Dmkii is a bit faster and has the wifi...

I also think the D610 is also why Nikon will not do a 9300 or improve much more on the D7100 since you can access the FX market at that range.

But it would be so easy to just increase framerate of D7X00 to 8fps, add a little buffer room, add a few video features, slap the D7200 title on it - and viola - undercut the 7dmkii. Don't know why Nikon would not do this. Although they have never been fans of putting deep buffers in DX bodies (not in the last 5 years anyway).

donaldejose

Whatever Nikon does will be market driven: both the current pattern of expenditures (since they now sell more DX than FX they will not abandon DX anytime soon) and reading the tea leaves of the future market (when the technology is mature Nikon will produce a new line of mirrorless bodies). I think the current market pattern of expenditures will justify the release of a D400 for Nikon just as it did the release of a 7DmarkII for Cannon. That niche is not yet exhausted or supplied by other Nikon bodies any more than it was for Cannon.

spraynpray

Makes me larf out loud to read such definite opinions about what Nikon will or will not be doing in ten l o n g years time! )

D750newbie

Not sure if this was mentioned before, but I would take a D610 FX any day over the 7Dmkii. Seems to be very similarly priced granted the 7Dmkii is a bit faster and has the wifi...

I also think the D610 is also why Nikon will not do a 9300 or improve much more on the D7100 since you can access the FX market at that range.

But it would be so easy to just increase framerate of D7X00 to 8fps, add a little buffer room, add a few video features, slap the D7200 title on it - and viola - undercut the 7dmkii. Don't know why Nikon would not do this. Although they have never been fans of putting deep buffers in DX bodies (not in the last 5 years anyway).

Agreed; and if the price for the body stays around the same as the current D7100, it will be a winner and undercut the 7dmkii. I guess my point is that IMHO the D7100 was the true successor to the d300 even though the controls are way different. At least I upgraded my D300 (which I miss terribly) to the D7100 when it came out and felt that way

brownie314

Makes me larf out loud to read such definite opinions about what Nikon will or will not be doing in ten l o n g years time! )

spraynpray - I agree 10 years is a long time. Trying to look at the direction technology is headed today and extrapolate out 10 years is fraught with peril. But if it wasn't fun to do - no one would do it right? And any "definite opinion" you see is written with this knowledge in mind.

brownie314

I actually like the direction Nikon is going with the 1 system - if they could improve the IQ of the chip and get it a little closer to the Sony 1" chip - this would be a really good system. That and get the price down to where the other 1" bodies are right now. But a high IQ 1" chip and that 70-200 lens is a very appealing combo. Super range in a compact system.

D750newbie

It would be a good reason to change my pana GX1 3/4 camera.

BabaGanoush

Actually that's the wrong way around - bond sales (aka printing money) increase inflation, buying them back decreases prices. Central banks are required to keep inflation within a specific band so you wont see general inflation that high unless they screw up badly. (Sorry, I'm an economist...)

True, except for the offsetting effect of the historical lows in the velocity of money and the historical highs in the private economy's hoarding of money. Since economics is O/T for this thread, I've sent you a PM, but I might not have succeeded in that. As for the "Sorry, I'm an economist" your gracious apology is accepted. I won't hold it against you!1!!111!!!

Msmoto

@spraynpray

Me too )

WestEndBoy

Makes me larf out loud to read such definite opinions about what Nikon will or will not be doing in ten l o n g years time! )

Isn't a definite opinion an oxymoron?

If someone is expressing an opinion on whether a D400 will be produced, someone is trying to discern a "tactical" management decision that will be made. Figuring out what people will do is pretty difficult. A short term gain or loss that is not material to the survival of the company is at stake in this scenario.

If someone is expressing an opinion about whether a technology, say mirrorless, will be dominant, they are arguing that "there is an inherent advantage or disadvantage to this or that technology" so the trend is going to exploit or be consistent with that inherent advantage. Billions are made and lost on how well these 10 year guesses are made. It is therefore important to be trying to make these guesses, being mindful of the risks of course.

D750newbie

Isn't the whole point of this thread that we are to make predictions? Not matter how definite they sound

I also think that short term predictions are more useful than long term. For example, I'm sure lots of people held back on buying the D610/810 when they heard a prediction that the D750 will be coming out shortly. However, sometimes long term predictions or ideas help us make short term decisions which set the trend and sway behavior and innovation one way or the other. The tipping point?

framer

I think Nikon's marketing got it right. You need to feed the masses at different levels. Their biggest market to compete with are smart phones. Some of those phone users that have never used a good camera will come over and try a DSLR and get hooked. You need a starting point for those users.

What's missing Is, except for the new D750, an easy way to upload to the web. All new bodies need that plus, and I know the technology exists, wireless USB direct to your laptop uploads and camera control. Throw in a WWAN chip for pro users and you don't need a laptop or smart phone.

It took me 5 years after buying a D3s to consider and buy the D810. I now have a great setup that can handle about anything I need or want into the future. I don't want more megapixels I want IQ, wireless access and control in my next body.

Another feature further in the future that goes along with the wireless stuff I mentioned, wireless video streaming to my living room TV direct from my camera, think Intel's WIDI.

That's where my heads thinking.

framer

Photobug

Good idea about streaming video to a LR TV direct from a camera @framer. I keep telling my friends connectivity is where we are headed and they just nod. Older people ask why? Like the way you are thinking.

sevencrossing

I
That's where my heads thinking.

framer

I think your head is in a good place

manhattanboy

But it would be so easy to just increase framerate of D7X00 to 8fps, add a little buffer room, add a few video features, slap the D7200 title on it - and viola - undercut the 7dmkii. Don't know why Nikon would not do this. Although they have never been fans of putting deep buffers in DX bodies (not in the last 5 years anyway).

And add wifi & a silent continuous shutter. Then I'm sold.

Photobug

But it would be so easy to just increase framerate of D7X00 to 8fps, add a little buffer room, add a few video features, slap the D7200 title on it - and viola - undercut the 7dmkii. Don't know why Nikon would not do this. Although they have never been fans of putting deep buffers in DX bodies (not in the last 5 years anyway).

And add wifi & a silent continuous shutter. Then I'm sold.

I just don't see a D9300/D400 being introduced but totally agree that they could add the features you and brownie314 mention and undercut the 7DII. If they don't have a prototype with molds made that is the fast way to launch.

retread

As I may only buy one more DX camera I am hoping for a D9300/D400 even at a higher price than Cannon. Then on to the D810. Have mostly FX glass anyway.