Will there Be a Professional DX Body From Nikon?

PB_PM

OK, so here is a corollary of your argument:

Since Moore's Law has nothing to do with photographic sensors, then had Moore's law not occurred or had occurred at a much slower pace, then the abilities of the sensors in Nikon cameras and the prices charged for Nikon cameras would be no different than they are today.

Hmm......

The two items are not directly related. Sensor tech gets cheaper not because the sensors get smaller, since last time I checked a FX sensor is the same size in the D810 as it was in the D3, (unlike CPU dies), but rather as the process of manufacture improves. Why does that matter? Less failed wafers equals more shipping product, thus the cost per wafer drops. Also, the sales volume of larger sensors has also increased, which also leads to a drop in price. None of which has to do with Moore's Law.

The light diodes on sensors are not the same technology used in a CPU or GPU, other than that some parts of sensors are made with silicon parts. Again, Moore's Law has nothing to do with image sensors, just processing power. What Moore's Law does explain is why Expeed (and similar) Processors are getting faster, which is why the signal to noise ratio of sensors is improving. It is the algorithms that those processors are crunching that are the primary reason that image quality at high ISO has been improving every 2 years. Huh... wow right on the money with Moore's Law.

I'm not saying the light absorbing diodes haven't improved, they have, but no where near as fast the processors in our cameras.

WestEndFoto

That all being said, it is becoming harder and harder to increase computing performance and whatever measure you decide to use is becoming slower.

I cannot disagree with that.

Surely if you look back you can see changes in technology that have resulted in upcoming brick walls no longer being relevant. What I mean is, if a feature of an existing technology causes a bottle-neck to development, a more capable solution is discovered. Like the swap from germanium to silicon etc.

Yeah, but all technologies eventually mature to the point where improvements become incremental. As historical as Moore's law is, if it continues to grow at an exponential rate forever, that would be a historical first (and a violation of the laws of physics).

WestEndFoto

OK, so here is a corollary of your argument:

Since Moore's Law has nothing to do with photographic sensors, then had Moore's law not occurred or had occurred at a much slower pace, then the abilities of the sensors in Nikon cameras and the prices charged for Nikon cameras would be no different than they are today.

Hmm......

The two items are not directly related. Sensor tech gets cheaper not because the sensors get smaller, since last time I checked a FX sensor is the same size in the D810 as it was in the D3, (unlike CPU dies), but rather as the process of manufacture improves. Why does that matter? Less failed wafers equals more shipping product, thus the cost per wafer drops. Also, the sales volume of larger sensors has also increased, which also leads to a drop in price. None of which has to do with Moore's Law.

The light diodes on sensors are not the same technology used in a CPU or GPU, other than that some parts of sensors are made with silicon parts. Again, Moore's Law has nothing to do with image sensors, just processing power. What Moore's Law does explain is why Expeed (and similar) Processors are getting faster, which is why the signal to noise ratio of sensors is improving. It is the algorithms that those processors are crunching that are the primary reason that image quality at high ISO has been improving every 2 years. Huh... wow right on the money with Moore's Law.

I'm not saying the light absorbing diodes haven't improved, they have, but no where near as fast the processors in our cameras.

Isn't that one of the points of Moore's law? Technology is getting cheaper. Does it matter how it happens?

PB_PM

Moore's Law is specifically related to processors, not technology in general. Keep in mind, without processors just about every other piece of modern technology would be utterly useless.

WestEndFoto

Moore's Law is specifically related to processors, not technology in general. Keep in mind, without processors just about every other piece of modern technology would be utterly useless.

Really? I dug up a paper written by Gordon Moore in 1998.

The first thing that he writes is:

The definition of "Moore's Law" has come to refer to almost anything related to the semiconductor industry that when plotted on semi-log paper approximates a straight line. I hesitate to review it's origins and by doing so restrict it's definition.

Underline added by me for emphasis.

I wonder if "almost anything related to the semiconductor industry" might include "Photographic Sensors"?

WestEndFoto

Moore's Law is specifically related to processors, not technology in general. Keep in mind, without processors just about every other piece of modern technology would be utterly useless.

For some reason, I cannot post the link. However, google "lithography and the future of moore's law" to find the paper.

snakebunk

My experience is that Moore's Law is used for speed and memory in computers, i.e. Hz and byte. We are of course free to use it as we like to illustrate progress.

WestEndFoto

The link:

http://www.lithoguru.com/scientist/CHE323/Moore1995.pdf

sevencrossing

Moore's law is not a strict law, like ohm's law
it is an just an approximation
It has come to mean. Technology is getting, faster, cheaper and smaller

In 1956, a PanAm plane was needed to to transport a 5 MB hard drive.

spraynpray

in 1978 it took two fit blokes to lift a 200mb drive. @-)

heartyfisher

And the room needed to be bullet proof in case you get a head crash.. the broken shrapnel from damaged high speed spinning disk can go through walls !!

heartyfisher

so the D400 is coming !?! maybe I should sell all my cameras and wait for it .... its going to be perfect for me !!!

snakebunk

so the D400 is coming !?! maybe I should sell all my cameras and wait for it .... its going to be perfect for me !!!

If we all did there is a slight chance. You start :-).

manhattanboy

Just to clarify any confusion with Moore's law

spraynpray

HAH! Excellent!

FreezeAction

I've sat and read all but the last few pages. Will there be a pro dx body? I have no clue. I did my home work and bought a D5300 and sell images from it but still do not by any stretch of the imagination call it a pro body. Then I waited to see what was happening on both the Canon and the Nikon fronts. Neither gave me exactly what I wanted in a single package but the D810 was my final decision. A lot was said about the cost of the camera body. Well a pro knows that the price of the body is only a small input compared to transportation costs, lens costs, etc. An extra k for the camera whether DX or FX is minor to the cost of a month long trip spent in Yellowstone and the Grand Tetons. Nikon has to do what it takes to keep investors investing or we get nothing at all soon. I printed images from a 7DMII and they look great. But with age the change in what I shoot the D810 was my choice. Would I like to see a really pro full featured DX body? I think so but I doubt now I'd buy it. In all honesty I don't think I'll ever see in the real world the things I'd like to use. I will say it is my opinion and mine only that Nikon did not answer the 7D MII any more than Canon answered Nikon's D7200.

Nik0n2011

It seems quite apparent, Nikon has no current DX body which can be considered professional, i.e.,

i think the answer is in this question
Is Nikon introducing 'pro dx lenses' ?
did they do since the start of this thread ?
or lets say in the last 3-4 years, new DX additions

if since that time, Nikon produced only 16-300 lenses, or slow lenses
there are tiny chances
otherwise, DFour00 when, it's up to Mr Kawasaki's(some japanese top boss at nikon) mood

One_Oh_Four

PitchBlack said:

Ah, yes, back on track....

Hooray! Back on track! Self-delusion and wishful thinking full speed ahead!

PitchBlack said:

Don't be ridiculous. Once again you're making excuses. The floods in Thailand happened in October, 2011. That was way before the release of the D7100. Jeez. They've had plenty of time to develop a D400 if they damned well wanted to. [b]The D7200 is the best you're going to get.[/b]

Weren't you not 7 months ago saying yo were excited that the 7D2 came our BEFORE the D400 because that would mean that the D400 would be better?

Okay, hindsight is 20/20, but sometimes looking back is amusing!

http://kenrockwell.com/nikon/images1/d500/1600.jpg

heartyfisher

:-) it was kind of amusing reading through this thread...

BTW.... I am picking up the D500 tomorrow !!!
Trading in my D7200 + lense + some $ for the D500. !!

So I wont be able to compare IQ directly between the D7200 and D500.. Oh well...

spraynpray

Yes, really funny to look back at it. Some people went right out on limb which has since broken behind them! LOL!

All good fun.