Nikon Z5

WestEndFoto

mhedges said:

D850 silent shutter is not very useable due to the poor AF. And the need to be in live view so there is no viewfinder available. D780 has good sil.................................h West End about Sony. I think long term they are in trouble. The gravy train of converts from Canikon must be slowing down a lot, if not flat out stopping. And they won't be able to keep up with lenses.

I think that one thing that will mitigate against the last camera syndrome is the quality of the z-mount glass. Canon is also able to benefit from this. Both companies are offering compelling reasons to upgrade given their superior optics.

I acknowledge that you have to appreciate the better optics to override last camera syndrome, but there is a very sizable market for that.

The significant improvements in the quality of video is also a factor. I believe that video is the reason to buy Canon, Nikon or Sony only in a minority of cases, but since Last Camera Syndrome is less of a factor for video, there will be an outsized benefit that the improvements in video will provide.

And if you are an action shooter, a moderate to heavy shooter (you will wear out your gear eventually), want cutting edge or even a couple levels down or have anything that even if it is like new, is approaching the end of the line for Nikon servicing it (say 10 years), then Last Camera Syndrome does not apply to you.

mhedges

I think video is a driver of sales. The only Z cameras I have seen "in the wild" were both being used for video.

WestEndFoto

mhedges said:

I think video is a driver of sales. The only Z cameras I have seen "in the wild" were both being used for video.

Yes, I am wondering just how big a deal video is. Nikon has sure made an effort to accommodate the needs of video users with their lenses.

ggbutcher

WestEndFoto said:

I think that one thing that will mitigate against the last camera syndrome is the quality of the z-mount glass. Canon is also able to benefit from this. Both companies are offering compelling reasons to upgrade given their superior optics.

I acknowledge that you have to appreciate the better optics to override last camera syndrome, but there is a very sizable market for that.

This is precisely what tipped me to switch from DSLR to mirrorless. I was looking primarily to upgrade dynamic range, from the D7000, and a D750 looked attractive. But the larger mount opening showed promise, so not having a large lens stable I jumped, bought a Z6. The 24-7mm f4 is a stellar lens. Only regret has been not waiting for the 24-200mm f/4-6.3 and getting an AF-P 70-300mm.

Pistnbroke

I note on the line drawings of the Z5 grip that a release button is shown with the batteries loaded side by side.... Checked on the nikon site and I cannot find it.

PB_PM

mhedges said:

Honestly I agree with West End about Sony. I think long term they are in trouble. The gravy train of converts from Canikon must be slowing down a lot, if not flat out stopping. And they won't be able to keep up with lenses.

Sony just signed a deal to exclusively supply all AP photographers with cameras for the foreseeable future, so I think they’ll do just fine.

tc88

My opinion is that Sony is the most likely to survive. Sensor is more important than ever in mirrorless. Sony has like 45% market share. Even if no one moves to Sony anymore from Nikon, the damage has been done. Besides Sony has figured out how to make lens, and they have the most developed breadth on mirrorless lens. Out of the big 3, I think Nikon is the most likely to fold or being sold.

donaldejose

At the end of the day, unless Nikon releases a Z3 or Z4, the Z5 will occupy the bottom of Nikon's FF mirrorless lineup. It and its future iterations will be fully competent for most normal uses but most of us here will desire the additional features, such a fully functioning vertical battery grip, to be found in the higher Z lines. Complaints about the Z5 are essentially meaningless. Wait for the Z6s, Z7s and the Z8 to get the Nikon mirrorless body you desire. It just isn't going to be found in the Z5 and no reasonably astute person who understands Nikon's naming conventions would expect otherwise.

snakebunk

Sony is a huge company, and they have the most complete lineup of mirrorless lenses and they are supported by Sigma, Tamron and others, and they make great sensors and I think they have the best mirrorless AF. I personally think their cameras are too small and I don't like SD cards, but I don't understand why they would be in trouble. They also make a real battery grip and great long prime lenses for the E mount.

WestEndFoto

tc88 said:

My opinion is that Sony is the most likely to survive. Sensor is more important than ever in mirrorless. Sony has like 45% market share. Even if no one moves to Sony anymore from Nikon, the damage has been done. Besides Sony has figured out how to make lens, and they have the most developed breadth on mirrorless lens. Out of the big 3, I think Nikon is the most likely to fold or being sold.

I don't think your view acknowledges Nikon's strength in other products. Further, I think that you are even underestimating Nikon's strength in photography. I would say that ability to survive is Canon #1, Nikon #2 and Sony #3. But I do think it is an overstatement to say Sony is in trouble.

Also, 45% market share in what? You can't just write off Nikon or Canon's DSLR customers.

And all of us have to acknowledge that we are armchair CEOs. We will see.

WestEndFoto

donaldejose said:

At the end of the day, unless Nikon releases a Z3 or Z4, the Z5 will occupy the bottom of Nikon's FF mirrorless lineup. It and its future iterations will be fully competent for most normal uses but most of us here will desire the additional features, such a fully functioning vertical battery grip, to be found in the higher Z lines. Complaints about the Z5 are essentially meaningless. Wait for the Z6s, Z7s and the Z8 to get the Nikon mirrorless body you desire. It just isn't going to be found in the Z5 and no reasonably astute person who understands Nikon's naming conventions would expect otherwise.

You said it. I do expect a Z50 with a full frame sensor as Nikon's introductory full frame mirrorless camera.

sport

For myself, the 4.5 fps would be the main stopping point for upgrading to the Z5. I was looking at upgrades from my D750 last summer and ended up getting a D500.

I really wanted to get the Z6 but Nikon is painfully slow at getting lenses out. It's tough getting on board with a new system when you have to adapt to get what you want.

CaMeRaQuEsT

I have no doubt that the Z5 will eventually sell well, but first, it needs to be competitively priced: it’s introduction price is the same as the current price for the more capable Sony A7RII (42 Mp, FF 4K30p); second, its intended audience needs to know about its existence and be convinced they can’t live without one, messages that Nikon has done poorly to convey and disseminate, although Nikon might have decided to postpone marketing the camera until actual deliveries start; and third, it needs appropriately priced lenses, as both Sony and Canon already have multiple low budget offerings available in addition to 3rd party offerings. Otherwise, the Z5 will struggle to sell in meaningful numbers.

donaldejose

"I do expect a Z50 with a full frame sensor as Nikon's introductory full frame mirrorless camera." What will be the naming convention for such a frankencamera? Will it be the high end of the Zxx line or the low end of the Zx line with a different body? Could be either a Z80 or a Z3. It will have to use pancake type lenses to keep the overall size in relative balance. If a FF sensor can fit into the Z50 body it should not be hard to make. Nikon already has a kit lens for it in the new 24-50mm zoom.

WestEndFoto

donaldejose said:

"I do expect a Z50 with a full frame sensor as Nikon's introductory full frame mirrorless camera." What will be the naming convention for such a frankencamera? Will it be the high end of the Zxx line or the low end of the Zx line with a different body? Could be either a Z80 or a Z3. It will have to use pancake type lenses to keep the overall size in relative balance. If a FF sensor can fit into the Z50 body it should not be hard to make. Nikon already has a kit lens for it in the new 24-50mm zoom.

Thom told me that he thinks a full frame sensor will fit in this camera. I think that Zxx is APS-C and Zx is full frame. So I think it will be a Z3 or Z4. The pancakes and 60mm prime will likely be the ideal lenses. But the 24-50 would work well too.

Why do you think it will be a Frankencamera?

tc88

WestEndFoto said:

I don't think your view acknowledges Nikon's strength in other products. Further, I think that you are even underestimating Nikon's strength in photography.

Strength in what products? What strength in photography are you referring to?

Sony has 45% market share in mirrorless, I think. Nikon has 15% in mirrorless. Whatever strength Nikon had in the past should reflect in the market share. Even in the bigger ILC category, Nikon's market share has only been coming down in the last few years. Since talking subjectively is useless, we have to let the numbers speak for themselves. Since those past strength hasn't carried over into the market share, it's rational to assume so called strength has diminished.

tc88

CaMeRaQuEsT said:

but first, it needs to be competitively priced

That's the issue, and I don't think it's going to happen soon. Here is why. Let's say Nikon lowers the price by $200, what's going to happen? Canon and Sony will also lower the price of corresponding cameras to compete. What is Nikon going to get? Nothing, there won't be improvement of market share, and it just makes $200 less on each camera. So in reality, Nikon has resigned to be the #3.

WestEndFoto

tc88 said:

WestEndFoto said:

I don't think your view acknowledges Nikon's strength in other products. Further, I think that you are even underestimating Nikon's strength in photography.

Strength in what products? What strength in photography are you referring to?

Sony has 45% market share in mirrorless, I think. Nikon has 15% in mirrorless. Whatever strength Nikon had in the past should reflect in the market share. Even in the bigger ILC category, Nikon's market share has only been coming down in the last few years. Since talking subjectively is useless, we have to let the numbers speak for themselves. Since those past strength hasn't carried over into the market share, it's rational to assume so called strength has diminished.

So what. Sony has a 0% market share in DSLRs and DSLRs are roughly 50% of the market (less in Japan, more in the US). DSLR users are not just going to disappear by either not switching to mirrorless or never buying another camera again? This whole premise is like saying that Toyota has a 0% share of sports car sales and is therefore in danger of going out of business - well I am sure that the Supra will now save their ass.

Read this article to understand where you might be getting your getting your conclusions and learn what the real story is:

https://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon-2019-news/november-2019-nikon-canon/internet-declares-sony-the.html

And if you want to learn what those other products are and how well Nikon is actually doing, read this article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357284-nikon-not-only-camera-company-upside-of-50?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=ninof-nikon-not-only-a-camera-company-with-an-upside-of-50&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0

tc88

WestEndFoto said:

Read this article to understand where you might be getting your getting your conclusions and learn what the real story is:

https://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon-2019-news/november-2019-nikon-canon/internet-declares-sony-the.html

"Sony has overtaken Canon and Nikon to claim the top slot for full-frame camera market share in Japan, according to BCN Ranking. Sony showed growth in the overall full-frame, APS-C and fixed-lens digital camera categories from November 2018 to October 2019, as well.

Ultimately, Sony saw its total full-frame camera market share in Japan increase from 31.6% to 38%, while Canon was bumped down to second place at 36% market share compared to last year's 37.8%. Nikon came in at 24% of the full-frame market, a decrease from last year's 29.1%."

This is one of the top searches that returned from Google. https://www.dpreview.com/news/7869207001/sony-overtakes-canon-and-nikon-to-dominate-the-full-frame-camera-market-in-japan

Are you arguing that Nikon is currently not #3 even in the overall ILC market?

WestEndFoto said:

And if you want to learn what those other products are and how well Nikon is actually doing, read this article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357284-nikon-not-only-camera-company-upside-of-50?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=ninof-nikon-not-only-a-camera-company-with-an-upside-of-50&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0

Who cares. There are experts predicting stock market go any direction you want.

WestEndFoto

tc88 said:

WestEndFoto said:

Read this article to understand where you might be getting your getting your conclusions and learn what the real story is:

https://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon-2019-news/november-2019-nikon-canon/internet-declares-sony-the.html

"Sony has overtaken Canon and Nikon to claim the top slot for full-frame camera market share in Japan, according to BCN Ranking. Sony showed growth in the overall full-frame, APS-C and fixed-lens digital camera categories from November 2018 to October 2019, as well.

Ultimately, Sony saw its total full-frame camera market share in Japan increase from 31.6% to 38%, while Canon was bumped down to second place at 36% market share compared to last year's 37.8%. Nikon came in at 24% of the full-frame market, a decrease from last year's 29.1%."

This is one of the top searches that returned from Google. https://www.dpreview.com/news/7869207001/sony-overtakes-canon-and-nikon-to-dominate-the-full-frame-camera-market-in-japan

Are you arguing that Nikon is currently not #3 even in the overall ILC market?

WestEndFoto said:

And if you want to learn what those other products are and how well Nikon is actually doing, read this article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357284-nikon-not-only-camera-company-upside-of-50?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=ninof-nikon-not-only-a-camera-company-with-an-upside-of-50&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0

Who cares. There are experts predicting stock market go any direction you want.

So what if they are #3 overall. Profit trumps market share and Nikon has a solid track record on that, paying dividends in most years and sitting on a pile of cash. Most of my fellow CFOs would kill to preside over that track record. Canon and Nikon's mount enables imposes fewer design constraints than Sony's enabling them to deliver optical quality at a cheaper price. Sony produces nice cameras but their number one claim to fame is superior AF that is only really superior if you are too lazy to learn how to focus with your camera. On most other things Nikon and Canon do better. Etc, etc, etc.

From a business perspective, Sony is superior at marketing to Canon and especially Nikon. But I don't want to buy superior marketing. I want to buy a superior optical system and Nikon is slightly better than Canon and Canon is alot better than Sony.

Is Nikon in danger of going out of business and denying access my chosen optical system? No. Does being #3, even if that is not the case on a five year moving average as opposed to some ephemeral win in the middle of a market transition which could easily end in Sony being #3 or worse, change that? Nope.

So in summary, if I was entering the market today, I would choose the best highest quality lens manufacturer as long as the cameras where decent and that is Nikon first closely followed by Canon with Sony in a distant third spot subject to the Nikon having the chops to build the system I want. Further, any complaint I have is neutralised by my D850 and f-mount lens selection. I am patient and in no hurry.

That's all I care about. You make your own choice, but based on what you have said, it should be Sony. And that is fine.

WestEndFoto

tc88 said:

WestEndFoto said:

Read this article to understand where you might be getting your getting your conclusions and learn what the real story is:

https://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon-2019-news/november-2019-nikon-canon/internet-declares-sony-the.html

"Sony has overtaken Canon and Nikon to claim the top slot for full-frame camera market share in Japan, according to BCN Ranking. Sony showed growth in the overall full-frame, APS-C and fixed-lens digital camera categories from November 2018 to October 2019, as well.

Ultimately, Sony saw its total full-frame camera market share in Japan increase from 31.6% to 38%, while Canon was bumped down to second place at 36% market share compared to last year's 37.8%. Nikon came in at 24% of the full-frame market, a decrease from last year's 29.1%."

This is one of the top searches that returned from Google. https://www.dpreview.com/news/7869207001/sony-overtakes-canon-and-nikon-to-dominate-the-full-frame-camera-market-in-japan

Are you arguing that Nikon is currently not #3 even in the overall ILC market?

WestEndFoto said:

And if you want to learn what those other products are and how well Nikon is actually doing, read this article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357284-nikon-not-only-camera-company-upside-of-50?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=ninof-nikon-not-only-a-camera-company-with-an-upside-of-50&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0

Who cares. There are experts predicting stock market go any direction you want.

PS, are you in Japan? I am not. And I don't know if Seeking Alpha entirely hits the mark. But I have yet to see a better assessment of the market anywhere, and it is good enough to not cause me to worry about Nikon going out of business.

snakebunk

@WestEndFoto: When you compare EF and Z lenses, do you include lenses from third parties? And how do you compare lenses that are missing for the Z mount? For example the very high quality 600/4 and 400/2.8 Sony lenses.

donaldejose

"Frankencamera" is a combination of elements from two different lines. In this case the DX mirrorless body combined with the FF sensor out of the FF mirrorless body. I agree it would most likely be called a Z3 and the pancake primes would be the best lenses. Thinking back to that great Coolpix A. That was a great "frankencamera."

ggbutcher

Thinking aloud here, but wouldn't it be more cost-effective for Nikon to introduce a "high-end-low-end" camera like the Z5, price it high at introduction, then subsequently discount their way into the low-end market share? Developing new cameras is costly, and in a decreasing overall market for ILCs, that makes more sense to me than to cobble together a Z3 or such.....

PB_PM

And now this thread should get back to taking about the Z5, not Sony vs. Canon vs Nikon...

The Z5 is a good entry level offering and ticks most of the must have features for that range. Nobody buys mirrorless specifically for action shooting, so the 4.5FPS is almost irrelevant in most cases. Would have been nicer if it was 5, but 4.5FPS matches one of the suspected target groups of this camera, the large pool of D90 owners who haven’t upgraded (and there are plenty of them, it was a big hit for Nikon). I doubt anyone buying this camera is looking to shoot professional movie footage, so the specs there are fine too, and blow away what those D90 owners have (720p, 24FPS, with no manual options).

If I had an older camera (D90, D7000), the Z5 would be a very interesting upgrade path, and many people will use a camera for 5-10 years and then think about upgrading. I think I’d skip the junky kit lens, but that’s just me, since I wouldn’t have got the kit lens that came with those cameras either. Of course I’d likely consider the Z50 first, but the Z5 would be tempting for sure.