Death of F-mount DX Challenge

WestEndFoto

I actually do think that there is a strong future for APS-C sensors, just not DX. That format will evolve to full frame because of the interchange ability. Even if a full frame sensor is 20 times more than a APS-C sensor, most will pay the extra 45 dollars (my guess is 10 years) and go FX. Nikon's DX will look pretty clunky in comparison and Nikon will respond with a news lens mount that is no larger than it needs to say. The flange diameter and flange to focal distance effects both the camera and lenses.

However DaveyJ, for everyone that loves DX, I will not worry that Nikon will abandon you. However, I would be careful about investing in DX lenses, as they are only compatible with FX cameras in crop format.

Nasim of Photography Life wrote an article about three years ago. I think it was ahead of its time then, but I think it still applies.

NSXTypeR

Haha, why does everyone have a bone to pick with DX?

All joking aside, I'll take you up on it. I say June 21st of 2025.

We DX users are a proud and hardy bunch, but in life, there are no guarantees...

heartyfisher

How long did it take DSLRs to replace SLRs ? Since we can still buy the F6 .. the SLR is not dead yet? By your definition .. is that dead ?

DX/FX the sensor size isnt going anywhere.. for years ..
But by your definition DX / FX includes the FMount .. and I say the FMount is going to be gone VERY SOON.. we already have the Nikon1 mount. with adapter that takes FMount Lenses.. by your definition again thats not FMount ..

Nikon will Keep supporting the FMount for a long time only because many highend photographers will still be using their D4S and D810 "forever". But as soon as the new nikon mirrorless mount comes.. it will be over within 1 to 2 generations of cameras.. Just like with the DSLR over the SLR.

Am I worried ? not in the least .. It will be a smooth transition.. I am using my CX/DX/FX cameras interchangeably with my DX and FX glass right now.. no issues worth mentioning.. all smooth .. In fact I think the definition of DX (with Fmount) is a non issue and just falsely associates with DX the sensor Format. Which is what everyone( most :-) ) associates with to when they say DX. I really don't really care if Fmount-DX as a camera product line dies. It will be smoothly replaced. Just like the Sensor-CX lines can use the FMount lenses, there will be Sensor-DX and Sensor-FX product lines that can use DX and FX glass..

Which will go first Fmount-DX or Fmount-FX? Well the fastest evolving one will go first. so CX already moved on (lol Fmount-CX never existed in the first place) then FMount-DX and FMount-FX following quickly.
In transition we will see many using MirrorlessMount-DX/FX at the same time as the Fmount-DX/FX
Cameras. Like I said, I am sure my next camera will be a Nikon MirrorlessMount-DX, in 3-5 years time.
I expect the MirrorlessMount-DX/FX to be released next year, after the D5 has sold its major share.

Why is my next camera a MirMount-DX ? (in 5 years?) because the sensor tech capability is about to jump ! There are several new tech just about to be released that will suddenly double and Quadruple Raw sensor capability.. add to that the ongoing huge increase in sensor readout capability and Processing power. We will see CX sensors equalling/beating current FX sensors. DX sensors far surpassing any FX sensor now on the market. will I want the latest and greatest Sensor-FX Camera .. sure I would.. Do I have the current Greatest Sensor-Fx cameras .. Nope. I believe just Like the High end Medium Format cameras are dead.. FX is on the way out .. have said it for years and years .. FX is dead. just doesn't know it yet :-)
Look at highest number of lenses sold ... they are all DX. One day they will realise that ProDX glass is going to sell ... the 16-80 is nikon's test lense if that is successful.. more will come... if not Sigma, tamron, tokina will be happy to oblige I am sure..

So to summerise .. this "Dx Death" line in the sand is just that .. a line drawn in the sand that will be washed away in the next wave.. ...

WestEndFoto

Haha, why does everyone have a bone to pick with DX?

All joking aside, I'll take you up on it. I say June 21st of 2025.

We DX users are a proud and hardy bunch, but in life, there are no guarantees...

Welcome to the race NSXTypeR. What is the story behind your handle by the way? Looks interesting.

WestEndFoto

How long did it take DSLRs to replace SLRs ? Since we can still buy the F6 .. the SLR is not dead yet? By your definition .. is that dead ?

DX/FX the sensor size isnt going anywhere.. for years ..
But by your definition DX / FX includes the FMount .. and I say the FMount is going to be gone VERY SOON.. we already have the Nikon1 mount. with adapter that takes FMount Lenses.. by your definition again thats not FMount ..

Nikon will Keep supporting the FMount for a long time only because many highend photographers will still be using their D4S and D810 "forever". But as soon as the new nikon mirrorless mount comes.. it will be over within 1 to 2 generations of cameras.. Just like with the DSLR over the SLR.

Am I worried ? not in the least .. It will be a smooth transition.. I am using my CX/DX/FX cameras interchangeably with my DX and FX glass right now.. no issues worth mentioning.. all smooth .. In fact I think the definition of DX (with Fmount) is a non issue and just falsely associates with DX the sensor Format. Which is what everyone( most :-) ) associates with to when they say DX. I really don't really care if Fmount-DX as a camera product line dies. It will be smoothly replaced. Just like the Sensor-CX lines can use the FMount lenses, there will be Sensor-DX and Sensor-FX product lines that can use DX and FX glass..

Which will go first Fmount-DX or Fmount-FX? Well the fastest evolving one will go first. so CX already moved on (lol Fmount-CX never existed in the first place) then FMount-DX and FMount-FX following quickly.
In transition we will see many using MirrorlessMount-DX/FX at the same time as the Fmount-DX/FX
Cameras. Like I said, I am sure my next camera will be a Nikon MirrorlessMount-DX, in 3-5 years time.
I expect the MirrorlessMount-DX/FX to be released next year, after the D5 has sold its major share.

Why is my next camera a MirMount-DX ? (in 5 years?) because the sensor tech capability is about to jump ! There are several new tech just about to be released that will suddenly double and Quadruple Raw sensor capability.. add to that the ongoing huge increase in sensor readout capability and Processing power. We will see CX sensors equalling/beating current FX sensors. DX sensors far surpassing any FX sensor now on the market. will I want the latest and greatest Sensor-FX Camera .. sure I would.. Do I have the current Greatest Sensor-Fx cameras .. Nope. I believe just Like the High end Medium Format cameras are dead.. FX is on the way out .. have said it for years and years .. FX is dead. just doesn't know it yet :-)
Look at highest number of lenses sold ... they are all DX. One day they will realise that ProDX glass is going to sell ... the 16-80 is nikon's test lense if that is successful.. more will come... if not Sigma, tamron, tokina will be happy to oblige I am sure..

So to summerise .. this "Dx Death" line in the sand is just that .. a line drawn in the sand that will be washed away in the next wave.. ...

Hi Heartfisher. The F6 is not dead because it is still on Nikon.ca. As an aside, I predict an F7 in a few years. Film is undergoing a bit of a reurgance.

To confirm, a Camera with a DX sized sensor with a mount other than an F-mount, even if an adapter is available, is not DX. Even if Nikon calls it DX. I believe that APS-C sensors have a bright future, just not coupled to the F-mount. Yes it sounds arbitrary and nit picky, but it is THE POINT that I am trying to make.

Regarding your other points, your views are different from mine, but I listen closely because I might learn something. Also, you seem to have some views on this. Why don't you take a no cost stab at $500 and put forward a date. You seem to be saying that it might not be many years out.

Cheers!

BVS

To confirm, a Camera with a DX sized sensor with a mount other than an F-mount, even if an adapter is available, is not DX. Even if Nikon calls it DX. I believe that APS-C sensors have a bright future, just not coupled to the F-mount. Yes it sounds arbitrary and nit picky, but it is THE POINT that I am trying to make.

But... what if Nikon introduces a new mount (the N-mount or something) and again uses it on both 'FX' and 'DX' cameras?

WestEndFoto

Then when Nikon stops producing a camera with a DX sized sensor with an f-mount, for the purposes of this contest, DX is dead.

Ironheart

@WestEndFoto, What you are really predicting is the end of the F-mount/DX sensor combination. I think we all agree that DX (nee APS-C) sized sensors will likely be here for a very long time, (I say forever). We should change the title of this thread to "death of F-mount DX".

As a question to the rules, if Nikon makes a DX camera, that takes "New mount" DX lenses, but has a little lever on the side that will allow you to mount "F-mount" DX lenses, do we declare death, or would you count that as an adaptor? (yes, I'm trying to split hairs here)

Regardless my position is that F-mount DX will be here forever stands, and I still claim "inifinity" as my "death of F-mount DX" date. At what point will the contest be declared over, so I can collect my $500? In fact, I'm so sure that it will never be eliminated that I'll pay you $500 if F-mount DX is ever eliminated. Offer expires when I do ;-)

WestEndFoto

Conniving devil you are Ironheart! I have an idea about how I want to respond, but will sleep on it. Plus I am too busy at the moment to write a proper response.

I do think there is a lot of merit in your comments.

PB_PM

Then when Nikon stops producing a camera with a DX sized sensor with an f-mount, for the purposes of this contest, DX is dead.

Lets look at this closer, the F mount is the only thing Nikon has going for them. If Nikon drops the F mount I'm jumping ship faster than you can say Fuji.

So what this thread should really be called is, "The Death Of The F Mount".

NSXTypeR

Haha, why does everyone have a bone to pick with DX?

All joking aside, I'll take you up on it. I say June 21st of 2025.

We DX users are a proud and hardy bunch, but in life, there are no guarantees...

Welcome to the race NSXTypeR. What is the story behind your handle by the way? Looks interesting.

What do you mean by "handle"? You mean my quip on guarantees?

It's just me being either really sarcastic or pessimistic. Take your pick!

BVS

Regardless my position is that F-mount DX will be here forever stands, and I still claim "inifinity" as my "death of F-mount DX" date. At what point will the contest be declared over, so I can collect my $500? In fact, I'm so sure that it will never be eliminated that I'll pay you $500 if F-mount DX is ever eliminated. Offer expires when I do ;-)

Unfortunately, even if Nikon never stops making them, Nikon itself will one day come to and end. Whether by bankruptcy, the destruction of the Earth, or the end of the Universe, the F-mount will one day cease to exist. And, since the difference between any date and the end of Nikon will always be less than the difference between the end of Nikon and infinity, you have already lost (closest guess wins). I guess you owe $500?

spraynpray

@WestEndFoto said: 'Yes it sounds arbitrary and nit picky, but it is THE POINT that I am trying to make.'

If Nikon came out with a new mount but carried on with a smaller format lower cost DSLR that uses the APS-C sensor, by your rules DX is dead, but from what I can see it is still alive. I think the general perception on this forum (if you looked around) would be that DX is the APS-C sensor and the discussions have been about when FX/FF becomes so cheap that Nikon will drop the DX/APS-C. Nobody up to this point has mentioned the mount as relevant.

@Ironheart said (first): 'We should change the title of this thread to "death of F-mount DX"'.

Yes.

As much as I would like $500, I can't participate because I don't care if they change the mount and I believe that the Nikon APS-C DSLR will continue as a low cost alternative to FX/FF up to the point where some advance in technology truly makes it no more expensive to make a larger sensor. At that point though, it will continue as a compact variant of the larger heavier body that uses more expensive, larger and heavier lenses. IMHO DX is just that - a compact lower cost DSLR with a big enough sensor in it

spraynpray

@NSXTypeR: WestEndFoto is asking about your Honda fetish...

nukuEX2

WestEndFoto should take his active imagination and set it free on the Canadian arctic tundra. Where it can be eaten alive by hungry polar bears and pack of grey wolves. Nikon will never abandon F-Mount.as long as there is a demand for it and We already have a mirrorless mode built into DSLRs anyway, in live view mode...

WestEndFoto

@WestEndFoto, What you are really predicting is the end of the F-mount/DX sensor combination. I think we all agree that DX (nee APS-C) sized sensors will likely be here for a very long time, (I say forever). We should change the title of this thread to "death of F-mount DX".

As a question to the rules, if Nikon makes a DX camera, that takes "New mount" DX lenses, but has a little lever on the side that will allow you to mount "F-mount" DX lenses, do we declare death, or would you count that as an adaptor? (yes, I'm trying to split hairs here)

Regardless my position is that F-mount DX will be here forever stands, and I still claim "inifinity" as my "death of F-mount DX" date. At what point will the contest be declared over, so I can collect my $500? In fact, I'm so sure that it will never be eliminated that I'll pay you $500 if F-mount DX is ever eliminated. Offer expires when I do ;-)

OK, I have thought about it and my view is pretty much the same. Your points are very good and I gave you a "+1". I agree that my title is a little misleading, as you are correct when you point out that I am really talking about the death of f-mount DX. I will ask the moderators to change it.

Your lever example is an interesting one. While I did not anticipate this particular variation, I did anticipate that something ambiguous like this might occur, which is why in the OP I stated, “If there is any ambiguity over who the winner is, I shall disqualify myself, make a judgment and my judgment will be considered final.” Of course I need to disqualify myself so my judgment is not considered self serving. In your particular example, my judgment would depend on specifics and I would consider whether this new variation was an f-mount DX designed to accommodate other formats (DX lives) or whether it was a new format designed to accommodate f-mount DX lenses (basically an adapter, in which case f-mount DX is dead). Regardless of which one I pick, I am sure I will hear lots of hollering from the losing side.

Also, people have been asking for clarifications and interpretations and I have been offering them. I need to be careful that I do not change the terms in the OP, as people that have already placed a bet will rightfully call foul.

I like your bet. I will add that to the beer you owe me in Vancouver on the professional DX bet we did a year ago. 

WestEndFoto

@WestEndFoto said: 'Yes it sounds arbitrary and nit picky, but it is THE POINT that I am trying to make.'

If Nikon came out with a new mount but carried on with a smaller format lower cost DSLR that uses the APS-C sensor, by your rules DX is dead, but from what I can see it is still alive. I think the general perception on this forum (if you looked around) would be that DX is the APS-C sensor and the discussions have been about when FX/FF becomes so cheap that Nikon will drop the DX/APS-C. Nobody up to this point has mentioned the mount as relevant.

Hi Spraynpray, this is why I have made this challenge very specific and changed the title to better reflect the OP. I am thankful to Ironheart for his suggestion. As I have said, I think that DX has a bright future. I also think that the f-mount has a bright future for FX. A few seem to be suggesting that I think the f-mount will die which is not the case. I think that mirrorless cameras will have a bright future, probably in an APS-C format but perhaps also in full frame. However, I think that if the mirror is dropped on FX, that the mount will not change or even the flange to focal plane distance. Why I think so is another discussion that I would prefer not to have in this thread.

However, I think that in time you will only be able to buy an f-mount camera with an FX sensor. I think that this is an important consideration (potentially very) for people thinking about investing in DX lenses which is why I am making this point and investing my own money to do so. It may also explain why Nikon is not making a pro-DX camera or pro-DX lenses. They know that this change when it happens will be controversial and do not want to make it even more controversial by forcing the change on a vocal group of professional photographers – therefore they are not doing anything to encourage professionals to buy DX.

WestEndFoto

@NSXTypeR: WestEndFoto is asking about your Honda fetish...

Exactly, and question answered.

Nice cars, my dad traded in an Italian supercar for one of those in the 90s.

WestEndFoto

WestEndFoto should take his active imagination and set it free on the Canadian arctic tundra. Where it can be eaten alive by hungry polar bears and pack of grey wolves. Nikon will never abandon F-Mount.as long as there is a demand for it and We already have a mirrorless mode built into DSLRs anyway, in live view mode...

I definitely agree that that the f-mount is here to stay. I might be wrong, but I would not bet against the f-mount.

phk84

I think the F-Mount will stay at least on FX. I'm basing this on the fact that a lot of us using FX has invested a significant amount of money in Prime FX lenses (F-mount).
What will happen if Nikon abandon F-mount and ship Pro and "Top of the line" cameras with a new mount? Nikon will expose themselves so that suddenly all of us will consider other brands when we are investing in new cameras.
How likley will we invest in a new Nikon system, if we feel abanoned by Nikon?
F-mount will stay. "My 2 cents"

NSXTypeR

@NSXTypeR: WestEndFoto is asking about your Honda fetish...

Gotcha.

@NSXTypeR: WestEndFoto is asking about your Honda fetish...

Exactly, and question answered.

Nice cars, my dad traded in an Italian supercar for one of those in the 90s.

Easy, my dad specializes in four wheeled Hondas and I grew up around cars all my life. Totally unrelated to the original thread, haha.

DaveyJ

For years I used Minolta Cameras. I got some great results as i was often in the right place at the right time. After about the fourth mount change I changed to Nikon. Then I plowed (YES, PLOWED) about $150,000 in large and medium format. Only B&H Photo and Video kept challenging me on this route. Over time I came to regard the bigger formats as so rift with big problems, etc. I SOLD ALL OF MY PHOTO EQUIPMENT. Then I kept getting calls to come back to do specific work. When I did it was with Nikon 35mm and still kept the Fuji GX 617 and all four lens panels and the Linhoff 617.

Nikon has kept it pretty pure with the F Mount. They have created a image of stability in a world awash in rapid change. My business has spent quite a bit in underwater and aerial and high speed video. Very little of that is done with Nikon. But I stay using mostly Nikon gear myself and they seem to be on track. They are EXTREMELY secretive in a world where industrial spying, public opinion wavering wildly, etc. I give the company very high marks. When they do make a move it seems to be in a direction I can identify with. Nikon Rumors is about the best way to keep a finger on the pulse.

Ironheart's verdict on his new 16-80 Nikkor DX is still out........We don't know what Thom Hogan is up to, Msmoto hints maybe she would sell all of her her gear and go to Leica. Having owned a Leica I tried that a 'little". One fact for me personally.....my photo ops are not as good as they used to be. When I got stuff that DEMANDS to be recorded I get to it. Right now my Nikon DX and half FX and half DX lenses do pretty well.

WestEndFoto

A little over three years ago, I made the above offer, which still stands. Given that the Z-mount is now out, any new predictions on the date. Of course, these dates will not be entered into the contest at that would not be fair to the people that made a bet in 2015 with the knowledge available then.

For clarification, a DX sized sensor on the Z-mount does not qualify as F-mount DX for the purposes of this bet.

NSXTypeR

WestEndFoto said:

A little over three years ago, I made the above offer, which still stands. Given that the Z-mount is now out, any new predictions on the date. Of course, these dates will not be entered into the contest at that would not be fair to the people that made a bet in 2015 with the knowledge available then.

For clarification, a DX sized sensor on the Z-mount does not qualify as F-mount DX for the purposes of this bet.

Holy crap, I think I have to move my date up haha. Originally I said June 21st 2025, but with the new Z mount, I don't see a future for F mount DX lenses.

mhedges

Can I still get in on this? I will say July 31 2023.