D850

haroldp

How do we know that XQD won't take off?

Lets see, it has been on the market for 4 years now and there are exactly 4 cameras that use it (D4, D4s, D5 and D500). None of those cameras are in general the consumer space, so it is not very likely for XQD to take off. Now if XQD shows up in sub-$999 cameras maybe, but until then it's a niche product.

Thank you.

In 4 years there are 2 companies (Nikon, Sony) using XQD, and 2 companies (Lexar, Sony) making them, one one of those companies (Sony) both makes them and uses them in their high end video cams.

In that time, a successful standard (CF and SD in their day) would have 8-12 companies making them (not counting re labellers), and dozens using them.

Every successful new tech protocol has been in some important way 10X better than what it replaces.

XQD is 30% (1,3 X) faster than SD UHSII in practice, and 3X (3Gb/s vs 10 Gb/s) in theory.

The UHS II being SATA based, it would be easy to upgrade the protocol to SATA II which is 6 Gb/s (back to 1.4X improvement) and still maintain a backward compatible pinout so that UHS II devices could also use UHS I cards (cheap reasonbaly fast, and plentiful) for less critical use , and the UHS II cards could be used in UHS I devices albeit at slower speeds.

Much higher production volumes and competition will also keep them much cheaper than XQD as well.

Remember, very few ever operate at the fringe of this kind of performance where a 150 frame burst is just not good enough.

The most likely outcome is 3-5 years hence, folks will be trolling ebay for XQD cards which will by then already be slower than whatever the next standard is, and devices using them be almost unmarketable.

I hope I am wrong.

donaldejose

Yes, everything announced about the D5 and the D500 will have to be subject to confirmation in real world testing. Some think the increased ISO ability will not stand up to the advertised two stops of improvement. We will have to see. I am hoping the new AF system and improved high ISO ability will indeed be a step forward and quickly trickle down to the new models coming this year and next. But for now, that is just a hope. I am very interested to see what one million ISO looks like!

starralazn

I personally want xqd to succeed as well as cf, but that is unlikely to happen

You have to remember that data storage tech takes awhile to pickup, cf began dev in 1994, 5 years before the Nikon D1, or the Canon D30
But there's another thing the cf card had over the xqd, absence of competing technology, only the microdrive was around at the time( micro drives were quickly superseded by cf)
If camera and sensor tech clearly demand more than sd or cf can offer, then xqd will begin to take hold.
For a sports photographer this makes sense, she would want 200 frames over 80.
For the avg shooter, it remains to be seen.

haroldp

CF had competing flash drive formats from Sony, Fuji, and Olympus

PB_PM

CF was still more widely available in actual shipping cameras, because it used the same pins as micro-drive (which predated it), which Sony, Fuji and Olympus cards never had, since they were brand specific.

Nikon, Canon and Kodak (which used to be a big player in the early days) accepted CF, and later SD, which is why those cards quickly became the industry standard. The marketshare of cameras sold by those three brands were more than enough to sink those competing card formats.

XQD faces something much worse, no use in the general consumer space (cameras under $1000), something that CF and SD both had by 2004 when digital cameras sales started to pickup. Unless Sony starts putting XQD in the A7 series cameras, Canon puts them in the 1DX replacement, and the 5D series, QXD is whopped.

Ironheart

CF reminds me of the PCMCIA* cards in early laptops (and Kodak digital cameras). There was universal loathing of these cards, and they are still in use today as "cable cards" if you don't want to get a box from your cable company. In fact, the 50-pin CF card is pin-for-pin compatible with the original 68-pin PCMCIA cards from 1989, 27 years ago!!
Okay everyone breathe with me "let it go"... "let it go"...

*We used to say this stood for "People Can't Memorize Computer Industry Acronyms" although it really stands for "Personal Computer Memory Card International Association" rolls right off the tongue.

Bonus points if you can tell me what CF stands for without using the Internet :-)

PB_PM

I think most people know that CF=Compact Flash, since it says that on every CF card on the back.

Now real bonus points go to those who know what all the acronyms for the different types of SD are.
Original SD, SDHC, SDHC UHS I, SDHC-UHS II, SDXC.

Msmoto

Let's see....the D500 sensor made into a full frame.... 48.8 MP....with the ISO of the D500 ....a D820?

snakebunk

Let's see....the D500 sensor made into a full frame.... 48.8 MP....with the ISO of the D500 ....a D820?

Sounds good! Add 6 fps and 100 raw photographs of continues shooting.

donaldejose

If the D5 and D500 turn out to be great cameras, surely the same technology in a D810 replacement will also be a great camera. The only thing that will suffer in comparison will be reduced fps because the processor won't be able to handle data faster than it does in a D5 or D500 so we can expect something like around 5 fps which is fine for studio, landscape, etc.

WestEndFoto

If the D5 and D500 turn out to be great cameras, surely the same technology in a D810 replacement will also be a great camera. The only thing that will suffer in comparison will be reduced fps because the processor won't be able to handle data faster than it does in a D5 or D500 so we can expect something like around 5 fps which is fine for studio, landscape, etc.

Plus at some point they will need to change the shutter to handle the faster frame rate, which means it won't be quite anymore.

haroldp

Plus at some point they will need to change the shutter to handle the faster frame rate, which means it won't be quite anymore.

If the electronics can handle it, an electronic shutter combined with PD elements in the sensor for follow focus would be perfect for higher framerates. Finder blackout would be an issue.

WestEndFoto

Plus at some point they will need to change the shutter to handle the faster frame rate, which means it won't be quite anymore.

If the electronics can handle it, an electronic shutter combined with PD elements in the sensor for follow focus would be perfect for higher framerates. Finder blackout would be an issue.

I wonder about the mirror too. Probably a bigger issue.

snakebunk

I think you are a little negative. A silent shutter of at least 6 fps shouldn't be a problem considering what the D5 can do.

WestEndFoto

The D5 is not quite. The D810 is a whisper. If you are a wedding photographer, you will not want to trade that for a higher framerate.

donaldejose

I say keep the quiet shutter on the D810 replacement even if it means lower fps. The D8xx series should stand for highest megapixels and quietest shutter from Nikon. 5 fps is enough for its intended use. Nikon offers other choices for those wanting more fps.

snakebunk

Ok, I admit that I am guessing, but I hope that Nikon can raise the speed just a little and keep the noise down. Everything else is improving so why not shutters?

WestEndFoto

They likely will, but the D810's shutter upgrade is pretty recent.

Even on my D800 at 4fps, I don't complain. I even enjoy the noisy shutter, but I am not a wedding photographer.

Msmoto

If we are thinking in terms of the future, imagined cameras, we may eventually see a sensor which will give data for autofocus to the lens, a virtual image in a finder and electronically take exposures at a rate limited only by the actual exposure time. All done by electronic wizardry.

And, as well as Nikon was able to keep the D500 a secret, no doubt the far reaching sensor technology is under very heavy wrap.

But, at some point we will no doubt do away with any mechanical shutters....the question is.... when?

Only my opinion, as usual....no better or worse than any other....

snakebunk

@Msmoto: Maybe we can take it one step further. I guess that at one point in time we won't even have to choose an exposure time, but the camera will constantly record data from the sensor and we can create pictures from this flow of data in post production. Or maybe I should try to get some sleep :-).

donaldejose

We will do away with mechanical shutters when an EVF is as good as an OVF so there is no longer any advantage to the OVF. The sooner this time arrives, the better in my opinion. Since Nikon judged the time was not yet here it did not make that change in the D5. My guess is we may not see it for 8 more years when it will be one of the technologies put into the D6. Between now and then we may see an EVF in lower level bodies for which the viewfinder functioning is not as critical.

starralazn

We will do away with mechanical shutters when an EVF is as good as an OVF so there is no longer any advantage to the OVF. The sooner this time arrives, the better in my opinion. Since Nikon judged the time was not yet here it did not make that change in the D5. My guess is we may not see it for 8 more years when it will be one of the technologies put into the D6. Between now and then we may see an EVF in lower level bodies for which the viewfinder functioning is not as critical.

i believe the D6 will come out in 2020, just in time for the Tokyo Olympics..

idk what will make an EVF better than an OVF, but if such an EVF is available by 2019, the D6 will certainly have it, i should think.

WestEndFoto

@Msmoto: Maybe we can take it one step further. I guess that at one point in time we won't even have to choose an exposure time, but the camera will constantly record data from the sensor and we can create pictures from this flow of data in post production. Or maybe I should try to get some sleep :-).

That is a massive amount of data, as every photon will have a time stamp (or at least a range within the desire time interval).

haroldp

That's a lot of photons.

donaldejose

"i believe the D6 will come out in 2020, just in time for the Tokyo Olympics." The single digit D series receives major technological improvements every 8 years and a minor update very 4 years so 2020 should be the time for the D5s. If an EVF is ready for prime time in 4 years it could be introduced at that time.