D300s Successor-D400, what and when

donaldejose

The camera market is shrinking as more people just use their cellphones which increasingly are good enough for snapshots. To survive Nikon must use its capital to market the types of cameras which they predict will sell well. Consider:

1. Cell phone/tablet cameras will continue to proliferate. However, you just cannot get a DX sensor based camera into a cell phone/tablet.

2. The compact camera market using a sensor smaller than DX is dying since many people see no real need for such a camera in addition to a cell phone. The Nikon 1 was not successful.

3. The DX sensor based compact or DSLR or mirrorless which would sell in large numbers. I think this will be the best chance for a growth area for Nikon. They will have to offer relatively inexpensive cameras capable of clearly superior images, especially at high ISO where the cell phone cameras quickly fail. For example, when people are out for a night out and want to post some photos of their activities on facebook does Nikon have a camera they will want to take along? No. Such a camera needs to be able to fit into a pocket (or handbag), have a pancake lens, DX high ISO sensor, and an android based operating system with Wi Fi so they can take a quality photo in a dimly let restaurant or bar, upload it to their facebook page and write a comment. Nikon is not producing a product for this market. The D3XXX and D5XXX bodies will continue to sell to those who are willing to go out with a camera hung around their neck or a camera bag.

4. The professional DX (the missing D400 which I do expect we will see next year). This too may be a shrinking market. It should be the almost perfect camera for working professional journalists, wedding photographers, sports shooters, newspaper and magazine photographers and advanced non-professionals. The reason is the commonly used reproduction size of about a magazine page or at most a double spread in a magazine. Even National Geographic and Arizona highways and Vogue should not need higher quality images than can be produced by the current highest quality 24 mp DX sensors. As soon as DX can produce a clean usable good dynamic range image at 6,400 ISO that is good enough because only published sports shots will be taken at that ISO. All other published images will be at 800 ISO and below. Currently, many people feel the D7100 adequately can (and does) fulfill this need and only needs some tweaking (higher fps, larger buffer, etc). Many feel the D7200 will completely fill in any missing elements other than the robust "pro" build. But, the non-pro build does seem to be sufficiently robust to last until the next D7XXX iteration in a few years so that robust build factor may be of diminishing significance. Thus, Nikon may well see no need for a pro DX body because it currently offers sufficient alternative choices. Nikon may abandon this market to Cannon. If Nikon chooses to complete I think they will have to be able to produce such a body for less than $2,000 or people will choose different alternatives.

5. The FX based DSLR and mirrorless. These will continue to be a growth market and Nikon has tried to get out ahead of the growth curve by dedicating 2014 to the year of the FX body. They now have four new excellent FX bodies to chose from (used D600, D800, and D4 remain excellent FX choices also) and Nikon has FX image quality clearly superior to Cannon. In 2015 Nikon will try to release a 48-50 mp FX sensor in a D4x or in a D810x with a tag line something like "medium format quality in DSLR size" to generate a lot of buzz and to show superiority with Cannon. Nikon will also continue to produce some very high quality FX lenses designed for high mp sensors such as the recent 20mm f1.8. You will then see some Nikon DxOMark sensor ratings near or over 100 and some lens ratings near or over 50.

I think Nikon has only one more chance to compete for the "pro" DX camera market and that is to release such a camera early in 2015. I think they will do it but I surely admit Nikon may see it as a shrinking market which they adequately cover with very workable alternatives from the D7100 and D750.

Personally, if I was going to spend $2,000 on a new body I would rather add $300 to my $2000 and get a D750 instead of a D400 because to me the increased high ISO IQ will be worth it. I don't need the more robust build. Many others would prefer to save $800 and get a D7100 because they don't need high ISO or more fps or a larger buffer. Nikon now knows the basic stats (or goals) for the D7200 and the D620 (and even the D750 follow-up). They may (correctly?) judge those bodies will be fully adequate to compete with the Cannon 7DII. Just market an FX body all the Cannon 7DII can do in DX at a price about $200 more and Nikon many not need a D400 to compete with the 7DII.

I do think 2015 will be a very interesting year for us.

Photobug

@donaldejose - nice post....you gave this a lot of thought. I agree with a lot of what you said and disagree with some of the FX comments. Just don't see a D4x or D810x in 2014. You said:
Personally, if I was going to spend $2,000 on a new body I would rather add $300 to my $2000 and get a D750 instead of a D400 because to me the increased high ISO IQ will be worth it. I don't need the more robust build. Many others would prefer to save $800 and get a D7100 because they don't need high ISO or more fps or a larger buffer. Nikon now knows the basic stats (or goals) for the D7200 and the D620 (and even the D750 follow-up). They may (correctly?) judge those bodies will be fully adequate to compete with the Cannon 7DII. Just market in an FX body all the Cannon 7DII can do in DX at a price about $200 more and Nikon many not need a D400 to compete with the 7DII.

+1 Totally agree and exactly why there will NOT be a D400/D9300. My Interim D7100 higher IQ made me happy and now the D750 is drawing me to a FX body.

2015 The Year of the DX

scoobysmak

I would have to agree that Cannon has not forced Nikon's hand to produce a "D400/D9300". I would say it put them in a rather tough spot though.

You have to think in terms of sales for everything, how many people usually swap brands because something new came out in the other "camp". Some have done it to get the best results for what they shoot, to me this is their choice and so long as they know the complications a wise one. Nikon has to look at how many people might switch to Cannon over this, could be a few. The birding situation was brought up once before, so you switch to Cannon and have the 7DMII and a 400mm 5.6. Your happy with the results but have a burning hole in your wallet to get a 600mm lens, lets face it reach can be addictive and in a few years some people financial situation could change. The gear your using tends to be the same gear you upgrade. After the years of buying flashes and other components the likely hood for someone to switch is very low. The people just starting out that need to buy everything else are the more likely candidates to switch.

Not that many people start out "birding" but Cannon seems to have a better option out of the gate. Once you invest more into a system the less likely the switch, plus some people hate change. I don't like the D7100 for its controls, I started with a D200. Switching brands means learning how the camera functions. Some people love tech and how to make it work, many are not shooting pictures though.

I will probably never get a D610/D750 or any other body that has the control layout similar to the D7100. If the D9300 came out and had the bigger buffer and everything else I was looking for but was this same configuration as the D7100 I doubt I would buy it.

retread

The D400/D9300 Is what I am waiting for to use for sports and wildlife. I have not been waiting as long as some. Reentering photography I have less invested. I don't want to jump to Cannon but could. I understand Cannon FF and C sensor cameras cannot use the same lenses. All my lenses but a kit lenses are FX. I need to decide if I want a Cannon C sensor camera and a Nikon FX or two Cannon systems. Really would rather share between two Nikon systems.

nukuEX2

Price gap is too large between D7100 and D610 about $900?! $900 can buy a lot of features on DX body and Canon filled the gap with 7D Mk.2. I don't think Canon would make a blunder by releasing a new body to the market that is supposedly "shrinking" Canon's R&D and marketing dept aren't stupid. They have obviously did an enough research and talk to many photographers and felt that high end APS-C DSLR is needed and wanted. Nikon shouldn't ignore that. Ever tried to take picture of Moon or birds in flight with a smartphone and point'n shoot?? It ain't pretty.

Terry7732

retread said:
I understand Canon FF and C sensor cameras cannot use the same lenses.

Canon APS-C cameras can use lenses designed for either format but Canon FF cameras can only use FF lenses. Therefore, provided you only use FF lenses they are freely interchangeable between APS-C and FF bodies, and you only need one set.

retread

retread said:
I understand Canon FF and C sensor cameras cannot use the same lenses.

Canon APS-C cameras can use lenses designed for either format but Canon FF cameras can only use FF lenses. Therefore, provided you only use FF lenses they are freely interchangeable between APS-C and FF bodies, and you only need one set.

Thanks that is good to know. I would rather stay with Nikon but it opens another option. I started with Nikon in the late 60's. Slowed down while raising a family and building the farm. Now grandpa wants to build a system before fully retiring.

scoobysmak

Price gap is too large between D7100 and D610 about $900?! $900 can buy a lot of features on DX body and Canon filled the gap with 7D Mk.2. I don't think Canon would make a blunder by releasing a new body to the market that is supposedly "shrinking" Canon's R&D and marketing dept aren't stupid. They have obviously did an enough research and talk to many photographers and felt that high end APS-C DSLR is needed and wanted. Nikon shouldn't ignore that. Ever tried to take picture of Moon or birds in flight with a smartphone and point'n shoot?? It ain't pretty.

The last moon shot I took was with a 400mm 2.8, its cheaper for me to buy a D810 and a D4s than to switch brands. I understand that either I will lose quality or speed and need a TC but overall Nikon isn't hurting as bad as some make it out to be. Everyone looks at price points and says fill the "gap". I don't think its a fill the gap camera, I think its more what will people pay for it. Some might extend $2500 for a great DX pro quality camera but others wouldn't. The fact the D7100 is such a great value would hurt that upper price limit.

retread

If the D400/D9300 materializes even at $2500us I will be in. It will just slow my progress to FX. Maybe the D810 or the D8xx.

snakebunk

@scoobysmak: Spot on. It is not about filling a gap pricewise but filling a gap in functionality. If Nikon can do it at a competitive price all is good.

Photobug

+1 @PitchBlack

Also at 2,452 comments. We keep going at this pace we should hit 100 pages next week. =D>

retread

It seems to me if the market is shrinking wouldn't you want to be aggressive and capture a bigger share.

If you are not growing your business it is dying.

Ironheart

Is the 7dmii even available yet? I bet nikon announces the D400 in time for Black Friday.

PB_PM

The 7D MKII ships in November IIRC.

heartyfisher

The 7D MKII ships in November IIRC.

Plenty of time for Nikon to announce a 7Dm2 killer !!

(lol Had to google "Black Friday" { huge difference in connotations for us with connections to Malaysia} )

Seriously though .. I have given up on the D400.. a D7200 would be more than enough for me :-) so I am hoping for a turbo charged D7200 that undercuts the 7Dm2.

Sports

Let me just say, a few people willing to pay a really high price does not a market make.

Nikon disagrees most of the time; they're not afraid of small markets. But I get your point, of course.
Nikon made the D3X, the D800E and other special bodies. I would definitely put the DF here as well. Even the flagships (D3, D4, etc.) must be counted as a small market - "a few people willing to pay a really high price".
And how about the big tele lenses? Those sales figures are not only small, they're ten times smaller than small. A few hundred a month. (There was an Australian site listing the serial numbers.)

donaldejose

Profit margin per camera can be low if lots of units are sold. But would lots of units be sold? That really is the big unknown. Many people do think lots of D400 units would be sold. Many other people think the time for a pro bodied DX sensor camera is past. I think it is a very close question.

retread

How would it work to take the D810 shutter, mirror box, and view finder and down size them to the DX format. The smaller mirror and shutter will have a smaller mass. It seems they could cycle faster because of the smaller mass and would be quitter. The view finder would bring along the eye piece with the shutter instead of the rubber cover that is just one more little piece to keep track of in the camera bag.

Sports

The D3X and D800 were not going after small markets and were both big successes.

I was mentioning the 800 E that Nikon themselves expected to be for a small market, compared to the D800.
And yes, they were succesfull, which is exactly my point: Nikon is not in general afraid of targeting small markets, because they are actually able to make succesfull and profitable products.
I agree that each D400 would generate a much smaller profit than a DF.

WestEndBoy

My two bits. I think that we will see a souped up D7100 (D7200) that is $400 cheaper than the new Canon. The only thing it will be missing is 10 frames per second (say 8). That is how Nikon will respond to Canon and that is as close as we will get to a D400.

sevencrossing

been away for just a week and we are nearly at 100 pages
as far as I can see nothing, new just the same people saying the same things

rmp

This thread is so long, I forgot what the question was.

Ironheart

D400!!!!!

Photobug

Why would they call it a D400 and not a D350?

But a D350 doesn't fit the number system used today. It should be called a D8000 or D9000. Then again, they released a D750, could not call it a 700 but they could have gone to D710. And why was the leak to Peter a D9300? It makes it all very interesting.

heartyfisher

I am waiting till feb then i think its the Samsung NX1 for me...