If you are looking at a D820, file size, frame rate and buffer matter. The last few comments have assumed no use of the buffer - and that's not likely.
A 24 megapixel D7200 would translate to 55 megapixels on the FX sensor. That's probably the minimum to expect from a high resolution FX camera. You could see something higher.
The write speed of the D500 is around 230 megabytes per second using 14 bit lossless compressed RAW files writing to a fast XQD card. A D820 with a 55 megapixel sensor would be around 65 megabytes with 14 bit lossless compressed. So the write speed is currently around 3.5 fps. Anything beyond that goes to the buffer.
Processor speed is hard to measure as we can't tell how much of the D500/D5 is limited by write speed, processing time, or power. Suffice it to say that you should be able to improve the bus and processor speed to get more out of the current XQD card. The card speed is closer to 400 MB/s, so I'd expect that the current barrier is the processor, and it will get 20-30% faster on the next camera.
The D500 buffer is around 1.3 GB and the D5 buffer is around 2.3 GB. Assuming there is no change in the processor or bus, the frame rate is a function of buffer size and file size. If we have a 5 fps camera, that's 1.5 fps to the buffer or about 100 MB. That means the buffer fills in 13 seconds if it is the same size as the D500. If the frame rate is increased to 6 fps, we're writing 2.5 frames or 165 MB/s to the buffer and it fills in just under 8 seconds. You probably can't go much faster without faster write speed and a faster processor. At 300 MB/s write speed, a 10 second burst to fill the buffer would only add about one frame per second and put us at around 7 fps.
I'm hoping to see something new. Frame rate is not why you buy a high resolution camera. I'd much rather have 4 fps but have new features like expanded dynamic range with multiple images in a single NEF - taking two or three frames similar to long exposure noise reduction.
I was thinking, some time ago, that I'd be on a successor to the D810 as soon as it was announced. Now I'm not so sure. I'm actually very pleased with the image quality of the 36.3MP that I have... and I'm not so certain I want to be storing files larger than the 42MB compressed-lossless that I currently have with the 810. I think 36MP is a sweet spot for me and my printing - which doesn't exceed 17" wide anyway. I will watch these developments with great interest, though...
Come on MegapixelSchnitzel, where is you sense of adventure? I love loading 100 foot rolls of Red Rivers' finest paper into my Epson 7900 and making 24 by 36 or 24 by 48 or 24 by 60 prints from my D800E. Plenty of resolution even with a fair amount of cropping at reasonable ISO and the Epson will run 2880 DPI all day long..
Sorry Guys your not thinking out the Box The new D8xxx will be the D950 with the following
New D950 camera Titanium/Carbon Fibre body 100 mp complete with new system for sensor vision recording without buffer control Finger print on/off switch 1 lens only, 5mm to 2000mm F1.2 through -out its range ISO Infinity no limitations/noise Laser guided focus system complete with sonar detection No memory card due to automatic upload by satellite to cloud with millisecond response to named device. Same for live mode No battery due to internal solar panel system All controls Voice activated capable of shooting 100FPS at any focal length. Weight 500 grams.
just simplify the memory banks so they recall all settings , easy it bemuses me the ones they have , i use them but they can only be used about 50 percent of what they should be
Speaking of "the fat man" he recently posted videos on you tube of the inside of an "unrepairable" water soaked D500 which might be of interest to those owning one. He fixed it.
I also had a D3300 which had a problem with the mike jack ..no parts unrepairable....sold it ..went mad ..bought a new D7100 for $550 ( use it for video)
I think it will be more than 50mp+ so Nikon can leapfrog Cannon. Maybe not much more. Would I up grade, depends on other features and cost. I would like too.
Compact flash cards seem to be on the way out and I do not have any. That is the biggest reason for not considering the D810 which is a good camera. I do have XQD and SD cards so want to keep it simple and not and a third type card.
I would like two fast XQD cards as files will be large.
Personally, I have a lot more to learn before I feel I could get more out of a 46/60mpx D820 than I do from my D800 and D810 (both of which are chugging away despite lots of use in tough conditions). I'll be sitting this one out.
I am sure that Nikon will bring a lot more than a few pixels to the table, they are clearly looking at their new lenses being able to cope with high mega pixel cameras, we will just have to be patient and and have faith in Nikon and their products. For me personally, I have far too much money invested in Nikon, to jump ship now.
It is thought an RBGW sensor may be able to provide up to 2 stops improvement in high ISO IQ. That would be remarkable and a lot of people would desire to upgrade.
Depends on the RBGW tech used.. the simplest version(and most likely) you lose half the resolution.. as well.. and also High iso colour(vs Black and white) so it has its advantages and also some disadvantages....
Moments of Light - D610 D7K S5pro 70-200f4 18-200 150f2.8 12-24 18-70 35-70f2.8 : C&C very welcome! Being a photographer is a lot like being a Christian: Some people look at you funny but do not see the amazing beauty all around them - heartyfisher.
The D820 would have to be a major upgrade to leave the D810..... 46mp isn't going to cut it. It would have to be 50mp + and at least 2 more stops Dynamic Range for me, Cleaner high ISO's.
11FPS would also be nice at that MP count.... meaning a huge buffer which I don't think they will do. The newer focus system like the D5 has, etc, etc, etc....
And it would need to include a $1500 rebate on the purchase of a new model 70-200 F/2.8 cause that lens is over priced by at least $1500.
I believe a lot of D810 owners would want to see some pretty major changes to tempt them to upgrade, The D810 represents excellent value for money at the moment. The replacement would not only have to have major changes but would have to be very competitively priced and at the moment Nikon don't seem to be doing that. I love my D810 and wait to see how Nikon resolve the future replacement.
Comments
Denver Shooter
A 24 megapixel D7200 would translate to 55 megapixels on the FX sensor. That's probably the minimum to expect from a high resolution FX camera. You could see something higher.
The write speed of the D500 is around 230 megabytes per second using 14 bit lossless compressed RAW files writing to a fast XQD card. A D820 with a 55 megapixel sensor would be around 65 megabytes with 14 bit lossless compressed. So the write speed is currently around 3.5 fps. Anything beyond that goes to the buffer.
Processor speed is hard to measure as we can't tell how much of the D500/D5 is limited by write speed, processing time, or power. Suffice it to say that you should be able to improve the bus and processor speed to get more out of the current XQD card. The card speed is closer to 400 MB/s, so I'd expect that the current barrier is the processor, and it will get 20-30% faster on the next camera.
The D500 buffer is around 1.3 GB and the D5 buffer is around 2.3 GB. Assuming there is no change in the processor or bus, the frame rate is a function of buffer size and file size. If we have a 5 fps camera, that's 1.5 fps to the buffer or about 100 MB. That means the buffer fills in 13 seconds if it is the same size as the D500. If the frame rate is increased to 6 fps, we're writing 2.5 frames or 165 MB/s to the buffer and it fills in just under 8 seconds. You probably can't go much faster without faster write speed and a faster processor. At 300 MB/s write speed, a 10 second burst to fill the buffer would only add about one frame per second and put us at around 7 fps.
I'm hoping to see something new. Frame rate is not why you buy a high resolution camera. I'd much rather have 4 fps but have new features like expanded dynamic range with multiple images in a single NEF - taking two or three frames similar to long exposure noise reduction.
Denver Shooter
The new D8xxx will be the D950 with the following
New D950 camera
Titanium/Carbon Fibre body
100 mp complete with new system for sensor vision recording without buffer control
Finger print on/off switch
1 lens only, 5mm to 2000mm F1.2 through -out its range
ISO Infinity no limitations/noise
Laser guided focus system complete with sonar detection
No memory card due to automatic upload by satellite to cloud with millisecond response to named device.
Same for live mode
No battery due to internal solar panel system
All controls Voice activated
capable of shooting 100FPS at any focal length.
Weight 500 grams.
Cost TBA.
Then I woke up!
Oh, and the whole thing needs to fit inside a contact lens and be mind controlled.
Compact flash cards seem to be on the way out and I do not have any. That is the biggest reason for not considering the D810 which is a good camera. I do have XQD and SD cards so want to keep it simple and not and a third type card.
I would like two fast XQD cards as files will be large.
Works just the same but must be Sandisc or Lexar.
Being a photographer is a lot like being a Christian: Some people look at you funny but do not see the amazing beauty all around them - heartyfisher.
11FPS would also be nice at that MP count.... meaning a huge buffer which I don't think they will do. The newer focus system like the D5 has, etc, etc, etc....
And it would need to include a $1500 rebate on the purchase of a new model 70-200 F/2.8 cause that lens is over priced by at least $1500.
I love my D810 and wait to see how Nikon resolve the future replacement.